Despite accusations to the contrary, Breakout is all about exploring every view of the stock market and the underlying economy. Whether you're bullish, bearish, agnostic or disgusted by the capital markets as a whole, we invite all comers with at least vaguely credible insights.
All that said, had I known Nesto was going to have a throw down with a dyed-in-the-wool bull like Phil Orlando, the chief equity strategist at Federated Investors, I would have stuck around for the interview. My bearish buddy's views are well established -- the "soft patch" is an endless trench, jobs aren't coming back, GDP is going negative again, and the Red Sox of the early 2000's were steroid-fueled frauds.
Let's let Orlando take them point by point (save for the Red Sox observation, which I think is simply historical fact). While conceding that last week's Empire State manufacturing and Philly Fed reports were "horrific," Orlando says the markets have digested what he calls their "summer of discontent" and are ready to renew their uptrend. Here's why:
The economic downturn was fleeting and caused by the usual suspects of Japan, weather and a commodity spike.
Weekly jobless claims have resumed a downtrend, as evidenced by last week's report of 414,000 new claims, slightly lower than the four-week average.
June 16th's low of 1,258 on the S&P 500 was close enough to the much vaunted 1,250 level to call it a successful retest.
The U.S. dollar is now catching a bid vs. the euro, something Orlando views as bullish for small caps in particular.
Seemingly endless headwinds of European weakness, etc. have been priced into the tape.
The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) reading is improving.
Add it up, and Orlando's a buyer. He's focusing on small caps and quasi defensive such as tobacco and medical devices, while holding off on buying tech until he sees more concrete signs of a recovery.
He thinks the S&P 500 has put in a bottom and is looking for a rally to 1,450, about a 16% improvement from last week's lows.作者: 大傻 时间: 2011-6-22 12:26
Economy's Woes Temporary; S&P Set to Hit 1450: Cohen
Published: Wednesday, 22 Jun 2011 | 11:24 AM ET Text Size By: Jeff Cox
CNBC.com Staff Writer
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The recent economic troubles that caused Goldman Sachs to slash its growth outlook are only temporary and unlikely to stand in the way of stock market rally, the firm's senior investment strategist said.
CNBC
Abby Joseph Cohen
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In keeping with a long history of bullish forecasts, Abby Joseph Cohen told CNBC that even though her firm cut its quarterly gross domestic forecast last week from 3 percent to 2 percent, that doesn't reflect broader pessimism about where the economy and markets are heading.
"We believe that 2 percent GDP number for the quarter is something that represents special factors in the quarter and we do think economic growth will be reaccelerating toward the end of the year," Cohen said in a live interview.作者: 大傻 时间: 2011-6-22 12:27
本帖最后由 大傻 于 2011-6-22 12:33 编辑
I do see a point in her following arguments about regional banks, we are currently building a huge cash bubble, that will burst evetually like any other bubble.
One reason for her optimism, she said, is that regional banks are starting to lend again.作者: not4weak 时间: 2011-6-22 13:15
大傻, GOLD能不能跌了?作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-6-22 13:47
That needs to wait till 大傻's GDX out.作者: dvork 时间: 2011-6-22 13:48
