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标题: [讨论] Bs Sure to Know When to Stop [打印本页]

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-7 22:07 标题: Bs Sure to Know When to Stop

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/1670491.html

I jumped into the world of system trading since ... 1993 ? It's too long ago, and I cannot even remember when. I believed that it would be the key to succeed in the financial market. For many years, I programmed all kinds of idea and developed all kinds of systems by using the most sophisticated software at that time and back-testing against more than 30 years of data. I tried to find the optimal results of sharpe ratio, average return, maximum drawback, ...etc. It turned out (maybe I was not brilliant enough) none of my systems was able to survive in all situations. I quit system trading research after few years of failure.

For so many years passed by, I have tried all kinds of approaches to find the holy grail of the trading world. Do you really believe there exists a such silver bullet? I stopped losing money until I threw away all those approaches. Now my approach is no approach.

作者: flyhigher 时间: 2011-7-7 22:43

You are trading against human emotion. Unless you can precisely define and quantify human emotion, all system trading will fail eventually.

这个是我拍脑袋想出来的，我从来没有试过，就把这条路给否定了

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-7 22:47

You are trading against human emotion. Unless you can precisely define and quantify human emotion, a ...
flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:43

Then you have saved many years of effort for not to waste time to prove that it did not work!

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2011-7-7 22:47

本帖最后由 tfmegatron 于 2011-7-7 22:49 编辑

这个是我拍脑袋想出来的，我从来没有试过，就把这条路给否定了flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:43

哈，这个厉害，偶认为，trading是人与人的博弈，就好比下棋，重要的在于掺和，乐在其中，你不参与决策了，就不好玩了。。。

作者: flyhigher 时间: 2011-7-7 22:49

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;sd=a&start=135

股市就像非洲草原，上面一群一群的牛羊，华尔街看似高深，其实也没什么了不起，那些Fund都是一个一个Herd，它的行为也是Herd行为，机构也是Herd，只有土地，空气和阳光是永恒的

我要赚钱，只需要看天气，不需要看Herd的行为

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-7 22:58

股市就像非洲草原，上面一群一群的牛羊，华尔街看似高深，其实也没什么了不起，那些Fund都是一个一个He ...
flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:49

Interesting analogy!

作者: snowrider 时间: 2011-7-7 23:03

"... 我要赚钱，只需要看天气，不需要看Herd的行为 ..."

But you forgot one thing, "非洲草原" has some predators that kill those herds for food.

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