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标题: [转贴] Jobs & Retail Surprisingly Weak [打印本页]

作者: 棋王 时间: 2012-1-12 11:31 标题: Jobs & Retail Surprisingly Weak

The surprisingly weak reports this morning on the U.S. labor market and consumer spending run counter to the recent run of favorable economic data. It is difficult to tell whether this morning’s disappointing readings reflect one-off seasonal distortions or the start of a trend reversal. The latter seems unlikely given the absence of any corroborating evidence in other reports. If anything, all other readings of the U.S. economy are pointing towards continued positive momentum.

Beyond U.S. shores, we have subdued inflation numbers out of China. And the European Central Bank (ECB) acted as expected by leaving interest rates unchanged. We also have successful bond auctions in Italy and Spain this morning that are pushing their bond yields in the right direction.

The major news of the day pertains to the soft economic readings on the Retail Sales and Jobless Claims fronts. December Retail Sales numbers came in weaker than expected, up 0.1% compared to expectations of 0.3% gains. This compares to the November gain of 0.4%, which was revised upwards from the originally reported 0.2% level. 'Core' Retail Sales, which excludes automobile and gasoline sales data, also came in weaker than expected.

This is the weakest Retail Sales reading since May 2011 and runs counter to the recent trend of improving trends in the building blocks of consumer spending. Measures of consumer confidence have been moving up and the labor market has been steadily moving in the right direction, notwithstanding the jump in today’s jobless claims numbers.

The Retail Sales report is admittedly not a perfect proxy for consumer spending since it only includes 'goods' sales at retail establishments and leaves out the much bigger consumer outlays on 'services.' But it nevertheless provides valuable clues to trends in consumer spending, which is the backbone of the U.S. economy.

Momentum on the consumer spending front can be sustained only if the recent improving trend on the labor market front remains in place. This morning’s Jobless Claims report runs counter to that trend, though it is not unusual to see one-off seasonal distortions in this series.

We got a major jump in initial Jobless Claims this morning, up 24K to 399K. The four-week average increased by 7.8K to 381.8K. This report reverses the gains of the last many weeks and takes us perilously close to the 400K level.

On the earnings preannouncements front, we got positive guidance from Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), while Chevron (CVX) guided lower. PVH Corp. (PVH) provided a positive outlook for the fourth quarter given strength in its Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger brands, but provided a modestly disappointing outlook for 2012 by pushing the gains to the second half of the year.

Today’s Retail Sales report, coupled with the trend reversal in the jobless claims data, is disappointing. We have to see whether this is the start of a downtrend in U.S. economic readings or the typical erratic behavior of monthly economic data.

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-1-12 11:35

这个季的ER应该很差，去年Q4以来的上涨是因为一系列的好消息，那才是suprising...

作者: farshine 时间: 2012-1-12 11:37

The surprisingly weak reports this morning on the U.S. labor market and consumer spending run counte ...
棋王发表于 2012-1-12 10:31

作者: 棋王 时间: 2012-1-12 11:38

回复 2# tfmegatron

好的好,差的差,可上天也可下地,学习老泻好好赌几把吧.

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-1-12 11:41

回复 tfmegatron

好的好,差的差,可上天也可下地,学习老泻好好赌几把吧.
棋王发表于 2012-1-12 10:38

偶是不会赌的，厚厚！

作者: 棋王 时间: 2012-1-12 11:44

回复 5# tfmegatron

说明你对自己没信心,俺会积极参与的,而且相信成功率在80%以上.你等着看.

作者: 西门吹雪 时间: 2012-1-12 11:50

The surprisingly weak reports this morning on the U.S. labor market and consumer spending run counte ...
棋王发表于 2012-1-12 10:31

作者: wxp 时间: 2012-1-12 12:12

job 和 retail 都不重要。都是滞后性的。

作者: tfmegatron 时间: 2012-1-12 12:24

回复 tfmegatron

说明你对自己没信心,俺会积极参与的,而且相信成功率在80%以上.你等着看.
棋王发表于 2012-1-12 10:44

你赌的时候吱一声，我记录一下，看看成功率。。。

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