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标题: [闲谈] 20121012 YYB日间灌水 [打印本页]

作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:16     标题: 20121012 YYB日间灌水

up
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:18

indicators appear to have found bases from which to rally from having been oversold; a bounce up today is expected to inaugurate the anticipated near-term trend rally.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:19

Producer Price Index
Released On 10/12/2012 8:30:00 AM For Sep, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
PPI - M/M change1.7 %0.8 %0.2 % to 1.5 %1.1 %
PPI less food & energy - M/M change0.2 %0.2 %0.1 % to 0.3 %0.0 %

Highlights
Headline inflation remained unexpected strong at the producer level in September but weakened at the core level. Overall PPI inflation posted at 1.1 percent, following a 1.7 percent jump in August. Market expectations were for a 0.8 percent increase. The core rate, which excludes both food and energy, was unchanged after rising 0.2 percent the month before. Analysts projected a 0.2 percent rise for September.

Food inflation eased to a 0.2 percent increase after a 0.9 percent boost in August. Energy remained robust with a monthly 4.7 percent jump, following a surge of 6.4 percent the prior month. Gasoline increased 9.8 percent, following a 13.6 percent spike in August.

Within the core, higher prices for light motor trucks were offset by declining prices for communication and related equipment.

For the overall PPI, the year-ago rate in September came in at 2.2 percent versus 2.0 percent in August (seasonally adjusted). The core rate in September stood at 2.3 percent, compared to a year-ago 2.6 percent the prior month. On a not seasonally adjusted basis for September, the year-ago headline PPI was up 2.1 percent, while the core was up 2.3 percent.

The latest PPI report clearly was mixed with energy still strong but the core soft. Equity futures were little changed on the news.


作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 09:20

黑色星期五,黑色星期五,黑色星期五。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 09:22

今天最重要的观察点是,两家最大银行财报后的走势。将影响大盘是否破1430重要支撑。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 09:31

morning

作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:33

Stop Denying the Facts

The early exuberance over the Jobless Claims report on Thursday morning was well founded. That had stocks up nearly 1% before noon. Then all the air got let out of the balloon resulting in a breakeven finish.

With the weekly claims at the best post recovery level of 339,000, it helps confirm the positive trends that led to the recent drop of the unemployment rate to 7.8%. And it looks like this very positive trend is picking up speed.

This is something to be applauded. And reason for optimism. There is no trickery or sleight of hand as espoused by some with political axes to grind.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:40

黑色星期五,黑色星期五,黑色星期五。
黄老泻 发表于 2012-10-12 09:20



    impossible for today.

The worst senario for today would be SPX and RUSSEL red but DJIA and NASDAQ green.
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 09:46

not likely ... I thought 1440 ... but now it is dragged down by financials
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:49

not likely ... I thought 1440 ... but now it is dragged down by financials
not4weak 发表于 2012-10-12 09:46



    financials seem selling on news after good ER's this morning.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:50

the drag down also came from AAPL and GOOG.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:53

Beige, Black & Blue

The Fed's Beige Book echoed what we have seen in other recent economic reports. That being a modestly improving US economy. Unfortunately that peppier tone was not good enough to stop Wednesday from being the 4th straight day of losses for stocks.

Pulling back to the bigger picture, this just looks like another consolidation period for a market intent on hitting new highs. To make that a reality we need economic data to stay on its current healthier track. And we need this earnings season to surprise to the upside. Both are likely outcomes.

Unfortunately there is a 3rd factor which might mitigate the above factors. That is the tightening of the US presidential race. As pointed out numerous times in this column, investors disdain uncertainty. Therefore, the unclear final outcome of this election may put the market on hold til early November no matter the status of earnings or the economy.

Don't Quit on the Market Just Yet

Too often customers read about a trading range or consolidation period with the assumption it's time to head away from stocks. That would be foolish.

Gladly we are in the midst of earnings season which always offers a great opportunity to latch onto exceptional companies ready to soar.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:57

Today’s early morning sentiment tone suggests traders inclined to end a weak week on a high note. US equity index futures on the DJIA and S&P500 are trading 0.2% higher, while NASDAQ futures are flat. Asian shares closed lower in front of upcoming data on China’s economy and concerns for the lack of follow-through in North American trade on Thursday. The major indices in Europe are also modestly weaker this morning despite industrial production numbers showing southern nations contributed to the unexpected, second straight monthly gain of eurozone factory activity, up 0.6% from July.
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 09:57

苹果在挣扎。。。。


作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:58

US traders turn their attention to prospects for the financial group, with results due out this morning from Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM). Analysts expect positive impacts from a strengthening US housing market, as was revealed in JP Morgan’s surge in home lending profits, and management’s statement that “the housing market has turned the corner." Third quarter earnings surged 34% to $1.40 and revenues rose 6% to $25.15 billion. Forecasts called for earnings of $1.21 on revenues of $24.42. The banks’ forward-looking comments will be examined closely, as front line beneficiaries or victims of economic activity, and may prove especially encouraging after the recent poor guidance offerings from the likes of Alcoa (NYSE:AA), Cummins (NYSE:CUM), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), and earlier warnings from FedEx (NYSE:FDX), Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE:HPQ) and 3M (NYSE:MMM), who have laid their downside guidance on the feet of slowing global growth horizons. Consensus forecasts place financials at the top end of earnings expectations; according to FactSet the Street believes easy comparisons with year earlier results and cost-cutting measures will boost financial quarterly profits by 10%, while weakened demand in Asia, particularly China, is forecast to hurt profits among material, metals producing and mining firms.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:58

Last night’s weak guidance from Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE:AMD) provided the latest in the list of downside profit forecasts from management blaming larger forces at work for product demand falloff. According to the firm, “weaker-than-expected demand across all product lines caused by the challenging macroeconomic environment” caused the lowering of sales forecasts to a 10% quarterly decline from earlier estimates of a 1% drop, plus or minus 3%. This morning a 24% quarterly profit gain at India’s Infosys (NASDAQ:INFY) failed to offset margin concerns and disappointing guidance. The firm failed to raise revenue estimates for the March fiscal year, anticipating 5% gains ex-Lodestone AG; a twitchy investment community had expected a raise to 6% with the Lodestone purchase included.
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 09:58

Yesterday’s equity markets failed to hold onto early session gains, which had been engendered by a Labor Department report on weekly jobless claims that showed an unexpected falloff to their lowest since mid-February, down 30K to 339K. Also adding to the positive sentiment were a Citigroup (NYSE:C) upgrade on US equities to “overweight,” a successful sale of E3.8 billion Italian 3-years, reports of a possible $12.8 billion deal for a Sprint (NYSE:S) stake by Softbank, and a successful debut of real estate service provider Reology, the third largest IPO of the year, which served as a bullish reminder of improving US housing markets.
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 10:00

突破!!! 猫熊,俺昨天的担心不幸言中了:


作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:01

Great!
Consumer Sentiment
Released On 10/12/2012 9:55:00 AM For Oct, 2012
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
Sentiment Index - Level78.3 78.3 75.0  to 81.0 83.1

Market Consensus before announcement
The Reuter's/University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for the final reading for September fell to 78.3 from 79.2 at mid-month. Still, the final September reading compared very well with 74.3 in August as well as July's 72.3. Softness of the last two weeks was centered entirely in the assessment of current conditions which fell 2.6 points from mid-month to a final September reading of 85.7. This was three points below the final August reading which does not generally bode well for monthly economic data in September. But expectations were a big positive, improving one tenth from mid-month to end at 73.5 which was up an extremely strong 8.4 points from August.

Definition
The University of Michigan's Consumer Survey Center questions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey.

作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:02

突破!!! 猫熊,俺不幸言中了:
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 10:00



    fake broke out. it will be erased today.
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 10:03

牛牛反攻。。。。

但是,没有金融板块的配合,估计走不远。。。

10:30以后来鉴定是否玩假的。。。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 10:04

fake broke out. it will be erased today.
Diver 发表于 2012-10-12 09:02



    OK, lets see...
作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:10

bottomed:


作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:11

bottomed:


作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:12

bottomed:


作者: Diver    时间: 2012-10-12 10:12

bottomed:


作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 10:18

挣扎越激烈,伤害越严重。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 10:20

look apple

作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 10:22


作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 10:26

Citi just upgrades US equities to overweight
sp target
1615
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 10:32

Citi just upgrades US equities to overweight
sp target
1615
aimei 发表于 2012-10-12 09:26



    Don't trust what they said. Just follow them in opposite direction.
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 10:33

The move after 10:30 am will be always true .....
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 10:34

回复 32# cellphone
DDDDDDDDDD

作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 10:37

yes we can!
black friday!!
do..............................................................................!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 10:41

我的处女诗,献给妞妞。



原本就应该平静地接受,做好心理和身体准备,尽量减少对自己的伤害。
可是,
你偏不,你要挣扎,他就暴力。。。。。
妞妞,放弃挣扎吧,
不能够刺激他的兽性!
既然反抗无效,还是尽情享受吧。
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 10:44

WOW,天量的143扑。。。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 10:51

大大
kill 通通
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 10:53

maxpain也是鸡指,不是每次都有效。
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 10:53

回复 37# aimei

That is why the machines are controlling the 143.5 - wow, machines.
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 11:03

回复 39# not4weak
厉害呀

作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 11:03

看看 谁力气大
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:15

抹去!!!统统,通通,捅捅抹去!!!


作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:16

WOW!!!!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:18

捅,捅,捅破1430!!!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:19

1429 !!!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:21

支撑线已破。。。。??
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:39



牛牛,投降吧。。。
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 11:39

wow ... $142 put volume spiked .. as well
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:41

深不见底啊。。。。(5)浪(9月14日)正式的完结了!!!

黑色星期五???
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 11:42

回复 49# cellphone
144,143的扑玩家已经撤了
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:46

MA(50) has also been broken down !!
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 11:47

MA(50) has also been broken down !!
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 11:46

哈哈。。。太爽了
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 11:50

被操纵的VIX轻而易举欺骗了无数“技术派”。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 11:53

本周的报告,估计俺都不用写了。剧本都在几天前写好了。。。。。目前在A3浪,下看MA(200)=1370 (第一站)。。。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:03

提醒一下:周线指标也转熊了。。。
作者: SuanC    时间: 2012-10-12 12:04

回复 54# cellphone


    这个剧本写了都半年多了饿.
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:04

1430 将成为主要阻力位。。。
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 12:05

下周很明显,花街继续打压股市,下破1400向OBM索要巨额筹码,给就抬起轿子直上1500,不给就赶出白宫去。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:08

回复  cellphone


    这个剧本写了都半年多了饿.
SuanC 发表于 2012-10-12 11:04


俺是写了长了点有关于(5)浪,俺自己喊这个浪都喊烦了。但是正式的有据可查的喊顶,是9月14日 (Shooting Star)...
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:08

牛牛淡定。其它不多说了。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:10

终究,EW 理论还是 Work 了, (5)浪没有长于(3)浪。。。。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:11

俺期待,2PM前都有回测下破的1430。。。然后LOD。。。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:14

空头今天很High啊,呵呵。
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 12:15

空头今天很High啊,呵呵。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 12:14

怕不怕? 不怕就一下打破1400去
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:15

左下角的金融板块:


作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:16

本帖最后由 cellphone 于 2012-10-12 11:18 编辑

彪了:

(头肩底??)

作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:20

怕不怕? 不怕就一下打破1400去
not4weak 发表于 2012-10-12 12:15


呵呵,啥风浪没见过。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:21

一共跌了45个点。 so what!
作者: not4weak    时间: 2012-10-12 12:22

呵呵,啥风浪没见过。
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 12:20


也不想吧谁整残废了,就是搞点钱来。。。
作者: tfmegatron    时间: 2012-10-12 12:23

也不想吧谁整残废了,就是搞点钱来。。。
not4weak 发表于 2012-10-12 12:22



作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:23

牛牛安啦,忍耐一下就好。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:24

被操纵的VIX轻而易举欺骗了无数“技术派”。
黄老泻 发表于 2012-10-12 10:50


噎。。。这个,今天还没有突破亚历山大线。前天,估计骗了许多牛牛/熊熊。。。看来,最简单的均线是最可靠的。。。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 12:24

大大
帅酷了

喉上去

作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 12:25

怕不怕? 不怕就一下打破1400去
not4weak 发表于 2012-10-12 12:15



谈判前,不会直破1400,应该边谈边破,除非OBM不想再干一届直接拒绝谈判了。
估计如果那样,OBM都看不见投票那天的太阳了。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:26

很多人以为股票很贵,看看这个就不会这样想了:

SPX 2012-10-12a.png

图片附件: SPX 2012-10-12a.png (2012-10-12 12:26, 17.21 KB) / 下载次数 16
http://huarenv5.com/forum/attachment.php?aid=642884&k=2bfe8f957b29b39ec41702fca87b9cd2&t=1719436838&sid=kPrRDd


作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 12:27

不是股票贵不贵的问题,是TIMING的问题。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:30

不是股票贵不贵的问题,是TIMING的问题。
黄老泻 发表于 2012-10-12 12:27


这个点位,做空很高明吗?
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 12:33

这个点位,做空很高明吗?
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 12:30



    如果可以跌到333,做空没有问题。你相信吗?我信!
作者: 阿朱妹妹    时间: 2012-10-12 12:33




回复 67# CoolMax
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 12:34

回复 75# CoolMax


    酷大
怎么看这个图?
bottom out?
作者: SuanC    时间: 2012-10-12 12:37

回复 78# 黄老泻


    真到333的话牛B大了
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 12:37

回复  黄老泻


    真到333的话牛B大了
SuanC 发表于 2012-10-12 12:37



    到1333就不牛B吗?!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:38

本帖最后由 cellphone 于 2012-10-12 11:42 编辑
很多人以为股票很贵,看看这个就不会这样想了:
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 11:26



    这个图,俺觉得黄金贵。。。这个是黄金 bubble ....
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:40

本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2012-10-12 12:44 编辑
回复  CoolMax


    酷大
怎么看这个图?
bottom out?
aimei 发表于 2012-10-12 12:34


有人觉得14xx很高,其实不尽然。

是个错觉。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:41

如果可以跌到333,做空没有问题。你相信吗?我信!
黄老泻 发表于 2012-10-12 12:33


与其相信333,不如相信3333.

你相信吗?我信!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:41

这里看一下5年图,够熊吗?



作者: SuanC    时间: 2012-10-12 12:42

回复 82# 黄老泻


    那也是相当的牛B
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:42

这个图,俺觉得黄金贵。。。这个是黄金 bubble ....
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 12:38


错,根源是美金Bubble!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 12:45

错,根源是美金Bubble!
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 11:42



   OK, then, Both are bubbles !!! that is why the Ratio is small...
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:51

OK, then, Both are bubbles !!! that is why the Ratio is small...
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 12:45


所以,结论是一样的。

指数在目前的点位,并不高。不像直观的那么高,相反还被严重低估了。

这个是空头要小心的地方。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 12:54

回复 84# CoolMax

谢谢酷da
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 12:56

本帖最后由 CoolMax 于 2012-10-12 13:16 编辑

一般而言,周五的走势不用太当真。

看下周了。错了我会认的,但不是现在。

果果不是还好好的吗,高盛的走势也没说要崩盘啊。

后面的计划如下:
TLT如果能到126就加空仓!
ES会补一些多头仓位回来,然后等下周的UpSwing!
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 13:07

一般而言,周五的走势不用太当真。

看下周了。错了我会认的,但不是现在。

果果还是还好好的吗,高盛 ...
CoolMax 发表于 2012-10-12 11:56



    嗯。。。Good luck

俺虽然下看MA(200),但知道1420似乎要挣扎一下。是似乎,不太肯定。。。
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 13:11

嗯。。。Good luck

俺虽然下看MA(200),但知道1420似乎要挣扎一下。是似乎,不太肯定。。。
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 13:07


哪有第一次碰SMA50, 就会碰SMA200的?
作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 13:12

今天既然碰了SMA50,调整就有结束的充足理由了。
作者: cellphone    时间: 2012-10-12 13:13

本帖最后由 cellphone 于 2012-10-12 12:15 编辑

不过,大家翻翻图,破掉MA(50)往往要到MA(200)才停下来。最近的例子就是5月4日到6月碰到MA(200)。。。

不同的是,那时候是走(4)浪,而现在,(5)浪 Ended。那个意思是(4)浪很短,而我们目前要开始的 A-B-C 浪恐怕要到选举之后了,明年初了。。。。
作者: 黄老泻    时间: 2012-10-12 13:13

这次的炸药包导火索比较长。
作者: aimei    时间: 2012-10-12 13:14

回复 92# CoolMax

晓得了

作者: CoolMax    时间: 2012-10-12 13:15

不过,大家翻翻图,破掉MA(50)往往要到MA(200)才停下来。最近的例子就是5月4日到6月碰到MA(200)。。。 ...
cellphone 发表于 2012-10-12 13:13


你没有明白我的意思。
作者: 阿朱妹妹    时间: 2012-10-12 13:17

谢谢更新


回复 92# CoolMax




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