标题: [转贴] Market blog [打印本页] 作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-20 08:32 标题: Market blog
赌ER的同学，请进一步确认ER时间。。。
8/20/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat as investors go on Fed watch. The only significant economic report scheduled to be released today is the minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting which will be released at 1 pm CT. The market has risen during four out of the past five sessions but may be facing a bit of a headwind today as the ceasefire between Gaza and Israel appears to have broken down. The trading action may be lackluster despite the FOMC minutes as investors await this weekend’s meeting in Jackson Hole, which begins on Friday. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks bounced higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is now back to its support level near $12 and may consolidate here or bounce higher once again.
Treasuries are little changed, as are equities, as the traders await the FOMC Minutes this afternoon (2 pm CT). They are expected to be a mixed bag of dovish and hawkish commentary but nothing market-moving is expected. Overseas markets were mixed and provided no strong leads for the U.S. The USD (/DX) continues to rally against other major currencies. Today's data calendar is very light with just the MBA report where mortgage applications rebounded 1.4% in the week ended August 15.
Stock Stories:
Lowes (LOW) – digging lower – The home improvement retailer posted better than expected quarterly results this morning as EPS and top-line revenue were above estimates. The company unfortunately guiding slightly lower for the fiscal year. This has put pressure on the shares as they are down over 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.
Target (TGT) – missed bullseye – The retailer posted quarterly results this morning that slightly beat expectations. The Company lowered guidance significantly and cut its FY14 as sales remain under pressure. The shares are down over 1% ahead of the opening bell.
Hohoho, AEO up a lot in pre-market. GL作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-21 08:51
8/21/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher in the pre-market. Yesterday’s session saw moderate gains on another day of anemic volume and movement. Investors once again shrugged off the FOMC minutes that were released yesterday. They showed growing sentiment for raising interest rates sooner than expected. The decision most likely remains data dependent but getting behind on this may prove to be detrimental to the economy. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks trended higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at its lowest level in a month despite the geopolitical and economic headwinds present.
Treasuries are little changed to lower, in tandem with small losses in global bonds. The action comes in the aftermath of the more hawkish FOMC minutes and as equities continue to rally. The 10-year yield tested 2.45% again before backing down modestly. The markets mostly shrugged off weaker Chinese and Euro-zone PMIs, and U.K. retail sales. There's a lot of data on the U.S. docket today but traders will mostly be waiting for Jackson Hole speeches from Yellen and Draghi tomorrow. Today's line-up includes the August Philly Fed manufacturing index, the August Markit flash PMI, weekly initial jobless claims, and leading indicators. The claims data will be important since the week correlates with the BLS survey period.
Stock Stories:
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) – Printing higher – The tech company posted in-line EPS yesterday after the close but beat on top-line revenue. The stock initially fell but is higher this morning after a few positive comments out of analysts.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
8:45 am CT– PMI Mfg. Index Flash
9:00 am CT – Philly Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium begins
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 8/21:
Before Market: BKE, DLTR, HRL, PLCE
After Market: ARO, BRCD, CRM, GME, GPS, INTU, MRVL, NWY, PERY, ROST, SMRT
Friday – 8/22:
Before Market: FL, HIBB
After Market: N/A作者: 秂忢空 时间: 2014-8-21 08:58
作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-22 09:10
8/22/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower following reports that a Russian convoy had crossed the Ukrainian border without permission. Investors hope the market can continue its winning ways after the S&P (SPX) hit another new all-time high, the Nasdaq (QQQ) reached a new 14 year high and the Dow (DIA) closes in on a new record. All focus today will be on Fed Chair Janet Yellen as she will deliver the keynote speech in Jackson Hole today at 9:00 am CT. Investors will be listening carefully for any clues about any changes in monetary policy but she is expected to remain dovish despite the improving economic and jobs data. Option volatility remained at exceptionally low levels as stocks continued to move higher.
Bonds are higher in the U.S. and globally ahead of speeches from Fed Chair Yellen and ECB President Draghi today, and the Bank of Japan's Kuroda tomorrow. The yield on the 10-year note is back below 2.40% at 2.38% and the German Bund equivalent is still under 1.0%. The Bank of England Minutes that showed 2 hawkish dissenters which revived speculation of a rate hike sooner than expected. As stated above, there are also renewed concerns over Ukraine and the Russian "aid" convoy. There's no data on the U.S. calendar today but next week brings numbers on housing stats, durable goods, the second release of Q2 GDP, the Chicago ISM, income and consumption and consumer sentiment.
Stock Stories:
Salesforce.com (CRM) – Cloudy – The cloud tech company posted better than expected EPS and revenue yesterday after the close. The stock was expected to move 5% after the report but the shares are only up by about 1% in the pre-market.
Bank of America (BAC) – Pay up - Bank of America announced yesterday that it has reached a comprehensive settlement with the U.S. Department of Justice, certain federal agencies and six states for close to $17B. Investors took the news positively as the shares spiked back over $16 as the overhang of a settlement is gone.
Major Economic Reports:
9:00 am CT – Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
All Day Event– Jackson Hole Symposium
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 8/22:
Before Market: ANN, FL, HIBB
After Market: N/A
Monday – 8/25:
Before Market: QIHU
After Market: RENN, SNOW作者: aimei 时间: 2014-8-22 09:19
Monday eR interesting
thanks 作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-24 12:59
Weekend Update August 24, 2014
Last week was a good one for U.S. equities. A combination of easing tensions in Ukraine and positive developments in Iraq on the geopolitical front helped markets. Also, better-than-expected economic data and a Fed mostly still reluctant to rush rate hikes pushed U.S. stocks to record highs…again. However, a vocal minority within the Fed is suggesting earlier increases for interest rates as economic and jobs data improved more than anticipated. Housing data also improved this past month as data last week showed. The sector had been lagging this year but finally showed some promise recently. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.7% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) almost matched it up 1.6%. The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led the benchmark indices up 2.0% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) matched the tech sector and finished up 1.6%. All major indices are up modestly for the year but the small caps (RUT) are still down 0.3 in 2014.
Option volatility sank like a stone this week as any geopolitical or monetary risks were ignored. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 12% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is firmly below the $12 level but this area has been a solid support level this year. Concerns on the FOMC minutes were pushed aside and any heightened anticipation of comments out of the Jackson Hole meeting on monetary policy were quickly extinguished. There is plenty of economic data due and continued geopolitical risks to contend with this upcoming week so hopefully we will see some added volatility.
Treasury rates rose modestly this past week as bond prices fell slightly. Rates firmed as bond traders saw the FOMC minutes as suggesting that Fed nudging up policy rates could happen sooner than earlier believed. Despite this theory, Yellen and the doves continue to drone on about keeping rates low. Everything the Fed had hoped for with economic and jobs data has come to fruition, but they continue to keep their stance on not allowing rates to rise. Oil prices (/CL) fell notably this past week. Crude fell to seven-month lows earlier in the week as inventories and demand waned.
This week's focus is on manufacturing, consumer sentiment and housing. Manufacturing has regained momentum and the week's focus might be headline durables orders as Boeing (BA) orders posted a huge gain for the month. Despite this, Deere (DE) was downgraded and the manufacturing giant continues to struggle. This week's updates come from Dallas, Richmond, and Kansas City on manufacturing. On the housing front, the latest numbers showed notable gains for housing starts and existing home sales. But new home sales have been soft and that is a key update this week. Home price appreciation has shown decelerating growth in recent reports and new numbers will hit the wires for FHFA and Case-Shiller this week. Earnings season is all but over so focus will remain on global issues and economic data.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – QIHU
P.M. – RENN, SNOW
Tuesday:
A.M. – BBY, BMO, DSW, MOV, TSL
P.M.- ADI, BOBE, SWHC, SLH, TIVO
Wednesday:
A.M. – CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF
P.M. – GES, WSM, WDAY
Thursday:
A.M. – ANF, BIG, COST, DG, PLL, TD
P.M. – BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK
Friday:
A.M. – FRO
Economic Releases (8/25 - 8/29):
Monday:
7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:45 am CT– PMI Services Flash
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:00 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT– Durable Goods Orders
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT –2-Year Note Auction Results
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT– GDP
9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT - Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment作者: aimei 时间: 2014-8-24 16:30
谢谢
Monday:
A.M. – QIHU
P.M. – RENN, SNOW作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-25 08:10
8/25/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a positive open for the broader market as investors hope the market can extend its winning ways. The S&P (SPX) hit another new all-time high last week and will be looking to break the $2K level today. Merger news and gains overseas are helping to boost stocks. The rhetoric out of the Jackson Hole meetings was generally positive according to market watchers. Option volatility should take another fall today if we remain positive. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is approaching yearly lows and low volumes should be present into the Labor Day weekend.
Bonds are higher in the U.S. and yields continue to trend lower. The yield on the 10-year note is still below the 2.5% as demand for the safety of Treasuries remains strong. European stocks kicked off Monday with gains, inspired by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s unexpected suggestion at Jackson Hole, Wyo. that further stimulus could be on the way for the region. The Euro is falling against the U.S. Dollar on that view of more ECB easing is in the cards as well as a survey that showed weaker German business confidence. Today's economic line-up includes the Chicago Fed Activity Index, PMI on the Services side and New Home Sales. We saw some improving housing data last week and investors will look to see if that trend continues for the lagging sector.
Stock Stories:
Intermune (ITMN) – Scoop – The pharma company is getting acquired by Swiss-based Roche (RHHBY) for $8.3B. The merger agreement has been approved by the boards of InterMune and Roche. The shares are up 36% this morning to the buyout price near $74.
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly higher as the market will look to extend its recent gains. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) exceeded $2000 for the first time yesterday and finished at an all-time closing high of 1,997.92. Stocks continue to be supported by their long-term uptrend with little in the technical picture to suggest that this situation is about to change. Geopolitical tension has taken a back seat as investors focus on improving economic data despite another miss on New Home Sales yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose slightly despite gains for equities as the ‘Fear Gauge’ may be at recent support levels.
Treasuries remain higher, in tandem with further gains in bonds globally amid increasing expectations for ECB stimulus. The 10-year Treasury trades at 2.37%, while the German Bund equivalent is at 0.93%, just off its recent all-time low. European and U.S. equities are also in the green on central bank hopes, while Japanese markets closed lower. Today's U.S. calendar will be of interest, especially the July durable goods orders data where a hefty increase is expected on Boeing (BA) orders. Also on tap is the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for June, the FHFA home price index, August consumer confidence and weekly chain store sales. Also, the Treasury begins its auctions with its $29 B 2-year offering at noon CT.
Stock Stories:
Best Buy (BBY) – sparked – The electronics retailer posted EPS that blew away estimates but they missed on top-line revenue. This has become a concerning trend as revenue has lacked growth that is needed to sustain increasing valuations for most companies. The company’s stock is reacting negatively as the shares are down over 4% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT– Durable Goods Orders
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT –2-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 8/26:
Before Market: BBY, BMO, DSW, MOV, TSL
After Market: ADI, BOBE, SWHC, SLH, TIVO
Wednesday – 8/27:
Before Market: CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF
After Market: GES, WSM, WDAY作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-27 08:32
8/27/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat after the market celebrated the S&P 500’s (SPX) first ever close above 2,000 yesterday. The strength was broad-based, as the Dow (DIA) hit a new intra-day high and the Nasdaq (QQQ) moved to a new 14 year high. There will be little for investors to work with today as few pieces of significant economic data are due to be released. We will most likely see more of a grind higher as lack of data and softening geopolitical news supports gains. Volumes are at their lowest levels of the year so conviction of the rally is not confirmed at these levels.
U.S. Treasuries are higher on the heels of gains in Asian and European bonds. The 10-year Bund yield dipped to test 0.90% on another batch of weaker than expected data as the U.S. 10-year sits near 52-week lows. German import price inflation fell, while confidence measures in France and Italy deteriorated, increasing expectations for additional stimulus from the ECB at next week's policy meeting. The only data releases include the weekly MBA mortgage numbers and oil inventories in the U.S. The rest of this week's data includes revised Q2 GDP along with initial jobless claims and July pending home sales (Thursday). On Friday we will see numbers on personal income/spending, the August Chicago PMI, and the final Michigan sentiment numbers for August.
Stock Stories:
Tiffany (TIF) – Over-priced garbage? – The high-end jewelry retailer posted EPS and revenue data that beat estimates this morning. The high end continues to out-perform the overall sector as the wealthy are still spending. The company’s stock is reacting positively as the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 2.8% for the week
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 8/27:
Before Market: CHS, EXPR, ISLE, TIF
After Market: GES, WSM, WDAY
Wednesday – 8/28:
Before Market: ANF, BIG, COST, DG, PLL, TD
After Market: BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-28 09:02
8/28/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower on reports out of Europe that the Ukraine was invaded by Russian troops. This comes after the market (SPX) closed above 2,000 again and has ground higher into the holiday weekend. European markets are taking a big hit today on the geopolitical news out of Ukraine. German is leading the downside off over 1%. U.S. equities look like they are going to attempt to ignore the news as losses are only modest at this point. With low volumes and volatility at extremely oversold levels, we could see a nice pop in the CBOE volatility Index (VIX) today.
The flight to safety amid increased tensions in Ukraine has propelled bonds higher. Ukraine president Poroshenko reportedly has called an urgent meeting of the security and defense council this morning. The German 10-year Bund yield dropped to a fresh record low at 0.86%, while the 10-year Treasury fell to 2.32%. A mix of data added to some volatility in the markets, with a weaker than expected number on Euro-zone economic confidence and an increase in German unemployment. This was somewhat offset by an uptick in German state CPI and acceleration in growth. On tap today in the U.S. is data on the revised Q2 GDP, initial jobless claims and July pending home sales. Data on Friday includes personal income/spending, the August Chicago PMI and the final Michigan sentiment numbers for August.
Stock Stories:
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) – Teen disgust – The teen retailer posted EPS numbers that beat estimates this morning but revenue was light as same-store-sales were down once again. The company also cut its guidance for FY14 on the back of decelerating growth. The shares are down 6% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT– GDP
9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales Index
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT - Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 7-Year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 8/28:
Before Market: ANF, BIG, DG, PLL, TD
After Market: BEBE, NQ, PSUN, SPLK
Friday – 8/29:
Before Market: FRO
After Market: N/A作者: aimei 时间: 2014-8-28 09:19
anf down
昨天OTM call 看来清零了作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-8-29 08:54
8/29/2014
Stock futures (/ES) are pressing higher again this morning after yesterday’s brief pause and appear to be staging for yet another all-time high to close out the month with a 3.5% gain. Renewed tension in Ukraine continues to be downplayed by the markets as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) attempts to break below $12 again today after an early spike higher in the previous session quickly vanished.
European markets have surrendered earlier gains after lukewarm inflation data left analysts second guessing about the apparent need for additional easing from the European Central Bank. U.S. Treasuries are little changed this morning with the 10 year at 2.35%. Buyers continue to drive yields lower with the combination of an eventual stimulus from Europe expected along with several other global government bonds trading at record low yields.
News to close the week will be fairly light with the exception of Personal Income and Consumer Sentiment out momentarily. Several retailers have recently shown mixed signals on the spending habits of the US Consumer which continues to drag on market sentiment. The overall lack of trading volume has been a big story this week as the lightest trading days of the year have been recorded in light of new highs and would be expected to extend through today coming into a long Holiday Weekend.
Stock Stories:
SPLUNK (SPLK) – The Big-Data software company saw a 52% jump in revenue for the quarter which was well above analyst forecasts. Shares are up 8% pre-market after testing year lows earlier this month.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income and Outlays
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 8/29:
Before Market: BIG
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-1 08:30
Weekend Update
Equities made moderately strong gains this past week with the S&P 500 (SPX) closing over 2,000. Although a psychological barrier to some, it’s just a number and does not equate to much in the scale of things. M&A activity continues to drive sectors and increasing confidence in our recovery has stocks hitting all-time highs. Equities rallied to start the week and remained firm into mid-week. Stocks slipped Thursday despite a modest decline in initial jobless claims and an upward revision to second quarter GDP growth. The deteriorating situation in Ukraine overshadowed positive U.S. economic data. Friday, stocks gained on unexpected improvement in consumer confidence which more than offset a dip in consumer spending in the latest personal income report. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 0.8% for the week and the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) almost matched it up 0.9%. The Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) rose only 0.6% while the small caps (RUT, IWM) led the major benchmarks up 1.2%.
Option volatility continued to show little in the way of fear for stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) actually rose 4.4% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ looks to have bottomed out on the stock rally, but that is not to say that it can’t fall further. Trading volumes were the lightest they have been this year and the upcoming shortened week may not provide any additional trading. There is plenty of economic data due so hopefully we will see investors get involved this upcoming week.
Treasury yields fell moderately this past week with the biggest daily movements (though still very moderate) early in the week. Global bonds were down early in the week on continuing momentum from the Fed symposium at Jackson Hole that indicated Fed and ECB policies would remain loose. Rates slipped again mid-week in concert with moves in European rates as ECB policy was seen as loose.
The week's highlight will be Friday's employment situation report for August. The Fed's chair, Janet Yellen, has recently emphasized that the labor market is not where it needs to be. Traders will be grading the employment numbers and thinking whether she is right or not. And Fed hawks will be analyzing the numbers also. The employment report likely will play a key role in the next round of Fed forecasts for the economy, posted with the September 17 FOMC statement.
It’s a new month but it looks to be another ‘Groundhog day’ as U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open. Investors are returning from the Labor Day holiday weekend and vacation season with gains in their minds. The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) ended last week with its 32ndrecord close in 2014. We will be hit with many economic reports this week which will hopefully give us some clarity with markets and some needed volume. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) remains at extremely low levels but is near its 2014 support around $12.
Treasuries are sharply lower as the ‘Risk-off’ trade looks to be in favor today. Yields have jumped higher, in tandem with weakness in global bonds. Trading volume was strong on the September opening. Equities are higher with Japan's Nikkei leading the way with over a 1% surge. Overseas data were mixed with a strong U.K construction reading and a decline in Euro-zone PPI to -1.1%. It's a busy week of data and events globally, with all eyes on the ECB meeting Thursday with huge expectations for more stimulus. In the U.S. the key report is the August employment release (Friday). Today's slate includes the August ISM manufacturing index and construction spending for July. Also of interest this week is the Fed's Beige Book (Wednesday).
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – More than a bigger phone?! – The tech product retailer is rising again in anticipation of its Sept 9thproduct launch. The company is reportedly set to release new phones, iPads and potentially a smart watch. The shares are up slightly in the pre-market and are currently at all-time highs.
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a higher open following reports of a cease fire between Russia and Ukraine. Global markets were also helped by new signs of strength in the U.S. economy as yesterday’s manufacturing data was positive. There is also the belief that the European Central Bank will implement additional stimulus measures tomorrow. There is plenty of potential market-moving economic news today and volumes picked up slightly yesterday. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) posted small gains of 2% yesterday and it may have set a near-term bottom last week.
Bonds are mostly lower globally in conjunction with losses in the U.S. Yesterday saw huge declines as the appetite for Risk expanded globally. The 10-year Treasury yield is slightly higher at 2.45% and may have its sights set on 2.5% today. Mostly better than expected PMI services data, including gains in various Chinese numbers and the reports of a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, have boosted global equities also. Data out of the U.S. today includes August vehicle sales, July factory orders along with the ADP report that may forecast Friday’s Government data. The MBA posted a 0.2% increase in its mortgage applications index. The Fed's Beige Book for the September 16, 17 FOMC will be of interest too. But trading may be limited ahead of the ECB decision on Thursday and August employment report on Friday.
Stock Stories:
Toll Brothers (TOL) – Seller’s Market?! –The homebuilder posted better than expected earnings this morning as its backlog increased. The company increased its expected deliveries in Q4 and for the entire FY14. The shares are basically unchanged after the report and the option market was predicting a move of 3%.
Major Economic Reports:
*Auto Sales – All Day
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 0.2%
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
1:00 pm CT – Beige Book
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 9/3:
Before Market: NAV, TOL
After Market: ABM, HRB, SNOW, PVH, VSR
Thursday – 9/4:
Before Market: CIEN, PAY
After Market: FNSR, ZQK, ZUMZ作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-4 08:50
9/4/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are higher this morning again as investors begin to look ahead to tomorrow’s jobs report. Before that, however, they will receive plenty of data to pour over today. Investors will also analyze the action by the European Central Bank after they cut rates on specific sectors in an effort to spark the region’s ailing economy. Yesterday saw a massive decline after equities rallied early in the session. Positive economic news was met with selling and this price action reversed the recent trend of buying on dips. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) finished Wednesday relatively flat despite the sell-off from another all-time high.
Treasuries have dipped slightly lower, following the lead from Europe and are reflecting disappointment over little news from the ECB on a broader based asset purchase program. It was a mixed news day overseas. The Bank of Japan and Bank of England each left policy unchanged, as widely expected. German manufacturing orders were stronger than expected, while French unemployment rose. It's a busy day in the U.S. ahead of tomorrow's August employment report. Data on today's calendar includes the August ADP private payrolls, the August ISM services index, PMI, Q2 productivity, July trade figures and initial jobless claims. Fed-speak returns with first time comments from the Cleveland Fed's Mester speaking on monetary policy. There are also appearances by Powell, Fisher and Kocherlakota, one of the more dovish on the FOMC. .
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – Sell now?! –The tech product was under pressure yesterday on an analyst downgrade and concerns over the new product line. The company has a launch presentation next week and much is expected on new game-changing products. The shares are slightly lower today as volatility picks up ahead of the announcement.
Major Economic Reports:
ECB Policy Meeting & Announcement
7:15 am CT – ADP Jobs Report
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT– International Trade
7:30 am CT – Productivity and Costs
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:30 am CT – Fed’s Mester Speaks
5:15 pm CT – Fed’s Powell Speaks
8:00 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 9/4:
Before Market: CIEN, JOY, PAY
After Market: FNSR, ZQK, ZUMZ
Friday – 9/5:
Before Market: KMG, MVC
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-5 08:31
9/5/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower ahead of the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. Analysts predict that the economy added 230K nonfarm jobs and 215K service jobs, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 6.1% from 6.2%. The data is due out at 7:30 am CT. Yesterday saw another massive afternoon sell-off which was identical to the price action on Wednesday. If we get more selling pressure we could see a quick rally in option volatility. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) rose a modest 2% but may pick up some more steam today if stocks remain in the red.
Treasuries are little changed as the market awaits the August nonfarm payrolls report. Overseas bonds were mixed with Europe slightly higher and Asia slightly lower. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around the 2.45% level, while the German Bund is still below 1%. Stocks are lower after Euro-zone Q2 GDP was confirmed at 0% and German industrial production jumped 1.9% in July. Now all eyes are on the upcoming jobs data where at least a 200k increase is expected. The only other item on today's calendar will be Fed-speak from the dovish Rosengren who is appearing at a bankers' conference. The noted Fed hawk Plosser also speaks today and tomorrow.
Stock Stories:
GoPro (GPRO) – Watch this! –The action camera company gets an upgrade a couple days after getting a downgrade. The valuation is stretched and competition is ramping up but the shares are at all-time highs. The stock is up over 1% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – August Jobs Report
9:15 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks
2:45 pm CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 9/5:
Before Market: KMG, MVC
After Market: N/A
Monday – 9/8:
Before Market: CPB, GFN
After Market: CASY, PBY作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-7 12:58
Weekend Update
September 7, 2014
Equities had modest gains this past week with the S&P 500 (SPX) finishing at a record close. Stocks see-sawed early in the week but rose on Thursday morning after the European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate to 0.05 percent and introduced an asset buying program. However, stocks ended the day lower, as they reversed course in the afternoon as energy shares dropped and investors grew cautious before Friday's employment situation report. Friday, the jobs report came in significantly below expectations and many traders saw that as further justification for easy monetary policy. Fed rate increases were seen as delayed and stocks rose on the day and week. Another case of bad news is good on the Fed-induced rally. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 0.2% for the week to match the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) rise. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose a modest 0.1% as losses in Apple (AAPL) put pressure on the index. The small caps (RUT, IWM) were the only major index down for the week as it fell 0.4%.
Option volatility remains at low levels but is reflecting that stocks are at or near all-time highs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) actually rose minimally for the holiday-shortened week. Trading volumes picked up slightly as investors returned from the vacation season in August. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) shot higher this past week after the ECB announcement on Thursday. The Euro is now at its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar (EUR/USD) in over a year. Economic data is relatively light this upcoming week but there are a few potential market-moving events.
Bonds fell for the week as traders focused on adding risk. The biggest daily swings were Tuesday and Thursday. Treasury rates rose Tuesday on strong numbers for ISM manufacturing and construction spending. Thursday, jobless claims remained relatively low and the ISM non-manufacturing index came in above consensus and notably positive. The 10-year yield sits at 2.46% and may continue to increase if demand for the safety of Treasuries continues to weaken.
The consumer sector is this week's focus. A big question is whether the soft August employment report appears real to consumers. Based on auto sales, the economy is stronger than employment data. The retail sales number comes out on Friday and should give us more clarity on the consumer. Consumer sentiment has been edging up—will that trend continue? There is a reasonable chance that this coming week's data on the consumer sector raise questions about the softness in the payroll employment numbers. Earnings season is over but the tech sector may see some action when Apple (AAPL) has its product launch event on Tuesday.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – CPB, GFN
P.M. – CASY, PBY
Tuesday:
A.M. – BKS, RSH, TITN
P.M.– KKD, PANW, PPHM, SAIC
Wednesday:
A.M. – MANU, VSR
P.M. – FIVE, MW, RH
Thursday:
A.M. – KR, LE, LULU
P.M. – NQ, ULTA
Friday:
A.M. – DRI, SNOW
Economic Releases (9/8 – 9/12):
Monday:
11:30 am CT– TD Ameritrade IMX ($IMX)
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
11:30 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results
1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
Friday:
7:30 am CT – Retail Sales
7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
9:00 am CT – Business Inventories作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-8 08:33
9/8/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly lower to start the week. Last week saw stocks settle at all-time highs once again as the S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished at $2007. It was the 5thstraight week of gains for the major indices. Investors shrugged off the weak jobs data on Friday and economic data overseas continues to struggle. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) sits near support at the $12 level. The President is scheduled to lay out plans this week for expanding the U.S. military campaign against ISIS including possible airstrikes in Syria. This, along with some hiccups last week as investors digested the ECB news, may provide some additional volatility.
Treasuries are a little higher, in contrast to weakness in European sovereigns, where yields are slightly higher. There's some ongoing spillover from the disappointing U.S. jobs report on Friday, and mixed comments from policymakers. Overseas news was mixed, with German exports rising to record levels, while Chinese imports weaker. Also out of Europe, the Investor Sentiment measure fell into negative territory. There's a light calendar in the U.S. today with only the TD Ameritrade Investor Momentum Index due. Supply headlines this week with the $61 B in coupon auctions, beginning with the $27 B 3-year note sale Tuesday.
Stock Stories:
Campbell Soup (CPB) – No Soup For You! –The soup giant posted in-line EPS this morning but missed on Revenue. The company lowered its FY15 guidance and sees long-term targets for sales and earnings below expectations. The stock is down over 3% ahead of the opening bell.
Boeing (BA) – Flying High – The aircraft-maker will announce a major deal this morning with the European discount carrier Ryanair (RYAAY). The deal is reportedly worth over $10B and for 100 new planes. BA shares are up slightly in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
11:30 am CT– TD Ameritrade IMX ($IMX)
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 9/8:
Before Market: CPB, GFN
After Market: CASY, PBY
Tuesday – 9/9:
Before Market: BKS, RSH, TITN
After Market: KKD, PANW, PPHM, SAIC作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-9 08:38
9/9/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are suggesting another quiet open as they trade relatively flat. There is little to look forward to as far as a catalyst, but investors will be watching the highly anticipated launch of Apple's (AAPL) new products at noon CT .Meanwhile, little market moving economic data is expected to be announced today. Yesterday saw another mid-day sell-off but stocks rallied back to only finish slightly lower. The U.S. Dollar spiked higher again yesterday and should add some needed volatility to the market. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) rose 4% but remains below the $13 level.
Bonds are sharply weaker globally in a heavy volume trade. Data was on the bearish side for Treasuries. The German Bund 10-year yield is over 5 bps higher and back above the 1.0% mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up again and is now back to 2.5%, the highest since early August and above its 50-day moving average. There are some fears of a hawkish language change at next week's FOMC meeting as economic data improves. In overnight news, the German Finance Minister warned cheap money can't buy economic growth and warned governments not to expect the ECB to underpin growth. In the U.S. today, Treasury supply gets underway with the $27 B 3-year note sale kicking off the week’s $61 B in coupon auctions. Data is light, but important with the July JOLTS report on tap as it's one of 9 key employment indicators on Yellen's dashboard. Fed Governor Tarullo will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, but Fed-speak will be going dark ahead of the September 16, 17 policy meeting.
Stock Stories:
McDonald’s (MCD) – Grimaced! – The Fast-Food giant posted global sales that fell 3.7%. August US comparable sales were down 2.8% and Europe comparable sales fell 0.7%. Global sales dropped 14.5% as the company missed badly and the shares down ahead of the opening bell.
General Mills (GIS) – One scoop – The cereal giant agrees to buy Annie’s (BNNY) a leading U.S. producer of branded organic and natural food products for $46 a share. The news has other natural food product shares higher as investors continue to focus the next big acquisition.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
9:00 am CT – JOLTS
11:30 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results
12:00 pm CT - APPLE Product Launch Presentation
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 9/9:
Before Market: BKS, RSH, TITN
After Market: KKD, PANW, PPHM, SAIC
Wednesday – 9/10:
Before Market: MANU, VSR
After Market: FIVE, MW, RH作者: aimei 时间: 2014-9-9 08:46
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to slightly lower this morning after a wild ride during Tuesday's session. The highly anticipated launch of Apple's (AAPL) new products yesterday had markets whipsawing but they finished the session on a downturn. Although a reversal in AAPL shares may have negatively affected stocks overall, the main culprit continues to be interest rate concerns and the Fed. Rising yields may reflect a slight re-pricing of the first rate hike, with some believing that markets had priced in a later hike than the Fed is suggesting. The U.S. Dollar continues to strengthen which has recently put further pressure on commodities. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) rose 6.6% on Tuesday’s sell-off and is beginning to show some signs of sustained strength. We may see more gains for the ‘Fear Gauge’ if interest rates continue to rise and stocks fall further.
U.S. Treasuries are weaker this morning and have trended lower over the last 10 days. The 10-year Treasury yield is up and is now above 2.52% and is now through some recent resistance on the upside. There is a $21B auction of 10-year Notes today at Noon CT and may provide some additional volatility for Treasuries. Stocks globally headed lower following the post-Apple event U.S. slide yesterday afternoon, but Europe has now bounced back somewhat. Data is light today so focus will remain on corporate news and the Treasury market. Investors have also begun to look to next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting for fresh guidance on rates.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – There was news?! – The tech product maker released plans for new phones, a payment system and a watch at its event yesterday…if you hadn’t heard. Analysts are mixed in price target raises for the stock and upgrades/downgrades this morning after digesting the news. The shares were highly volatile yesterday but finished the session flat which is where they are ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 7.2% for week
9:00 am CT – Wholesale Trade
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 9/10:
Before Market: MANU, VSR
After Market: FIVE, MW, RH
Thursday – 9/11:
Before Market: KR, LE, LULU
After Market: NQ, ULTA作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-11 09:14
9/11/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower this morning ahead of the weekly jobless claims report. Initial claims are expected to come in 300K and there are expected to be 2.49M continuing claims. Yesterday saw modest gains after stocks broke lower early in the morning. Support near $1980 in the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was tested early in the session but equities immediately bounced off this area. Speaking on the eve of the anniversary of September 11 terrorist attacks, the President last night discussed the strategy that the U.S. will utilize against ISIL. It looks like geopolitical risks along with mediocre economic data is beginning to show some additional volatility for markets.The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) dropped 4% yesterday but should show some strength today if stocks remain weak today.
U.S. Treasuries are posting small gains in contrast to weaker Asian debt markets, while Europe's little rally is also failing. The 10-year yield has edged down to 2.52% but is holding support above the 2.5% level. Equities are mostly lower, with the exception of the Nikkei, even as Scottish independence concerns have faded slightly. In overnight news, German inflation was confirmed at a subdued 0.8% year over year pace. The U.K. house price index slid to 40%, the lowest in a year. In the U.S. today, there's more supply today with the 30-year Bond auction on tap. The data calendar is light with just initial jobless claims and the August Treasury budget.
Stock Stories:
Lululemon (LULU) – No Pants! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected earnings this morning, albeit on lowered estimates. The guidance for Q3 and FY14 is relatively in-line with analyst expectations but the shares are up 14% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results
1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 9/11
Before Market: KR, LULU
After Market: NQ, ULTA
Friday – 9/12:
Before Market: DRI, SNOW
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-12 08:37
9/12/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat again this morning. Volume is light ahead of the advance retail sales report for August which is due out at 7:30 am CT. Analysts are predicting that sales rose 0.6% overall ,while the core reading which excludes autos and gas is expected to have risen 0.3%. We saw another sharp reversal in equities yesterday as traders once again bought early weakness. Although markets remain near all-time highs and headwinds remain, investors continue to look to riskier assets such as stocks. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) finished the session flat after rising sharply in the morning.
Weakness in global bonds spilled over to Treasuries and the 10-year yield traded up to 2.57%. The German Bund is holding over the 1.0% level for a third straight session. Equities are little changed and mixed both overseas and in the U.S. Worries the FOMC will drop its "considerable time" language at next week's meeting continues to weigh on the markets, along with disappointment over the lack of QE from the ECB. In overnight news, the "No's" are still in the lead in the latest Scottish referendum poll. Euro-zone production was stronger than expected. Chinese lending data was weaker than expected. And, new sanctions take hold on Russia. In the U.S., the data calendar is heavy with August retail sales headlining, while trade prices, business inventories and the preliminary consumer sentiment index are also due.
Stock Stories:
Darden (DRI) – Suburbia eats – The casual restaurant chain company posted in-line quarterly results this morning. A turnaround plan for its Olive Garden restaurants and a sales jump at its Longhorn Steakhouse has the shares are up 2% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Retail Sales
7:30 am CT – Import and Export Prices
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
9:00 am CT – Business Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 9/12
Before Market: DRI, SNOW
After Market: N/A
Monday – 9/15:
Before Market: COCO
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-14 08:32
Weekend Update
Equities had modest loses this past week with the S&P 500 (SPX) pulling back from all-time highs. Economic news was mostly favorable but stocks dipped on corporate news and Fed worries. Equities began the week mixed but fell on Tuesday after Apple’s (AAPL) product launch and rising interest rates. We saw a solid reversal in stocks and AAPL on Wednesday but Thursday’s weak jobless claims data put a halt to gains. The week finished down sharply on Friday as positive Retail Sales raised bets that the Fed will rates earlier in 2015 than later. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) led the major indices lower off 1.1% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) fell 0.9%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) was down only 0.3% as gains in Apple (AAPL) put support in the sector. The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell only 0.8% but certainly were the most volatile for the week.
Option volatility firmed up this past week and is finally beginning to reflect the global risks in the markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 10% but remains in historically low territory. Option premium should begin to rise into the Fed meeting this week and hopefully we will get stocks to bounce around a bit. Oil futures (/CL) hit their lowest levels in over a year on Thursday morning but bounced off the $90 level sharply. Decreasing fuel costs should help consumer spending going forward as inventories and supply have been increasing.
Bonds prices were relatively stable for the week until Friday’s sharp drop. Conversely, Treasury rates rose to their highest level in two months. The 10-year yield sits at 2.61% and is showing signs that the Fed may raise rates sooner than expected. The upcoming FOMC meeting this upcoming week may induce the Fed to remove a reference to interest rates staying low for a "considerable time" after it ends bond buying
News for the upcoming week is wide ranging. The Fed posts its decision Wednesday along with updated forecasts. Both manufacturing and housing have shown some renewed vigor. Regional surveys have not always been in line with national data on manufacturing. The New York Fed's survey has been soft and posts Monday for September while national industrial production hits the wires the same day. Housing has shown improvement with a jump in July starts and with a rise in the NAHB housing market index. But mortgage purchase applications have slipped and are at low levels. Thursday's housing starts report will be an important update on this sector.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – COCO
P.M. – ALOG
Tuesday:
A.M. – FDS
P.M.– ADBE, APOG
Wednesday:
A.M. – CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN
P.M. – PIR, UNFI
Thursday:
A.M. – CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL
P.M. – ORCL, RHT, TIBX
Friday:
A.M. – N/A
Economic Releases (9/15 – 9/19):
Monday:
7:30 am CT– Empire State Mfg. Survey
8:15 am CT –Industrial Production
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
8:00 am CT – Treasury International Capital
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement & Forecast
1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Housing Starts
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
Friday:
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-15 09:15
9/15/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower as investors hope the market can get back to its winning ways. Last week the market posted its first losing week in the past six. Investors will remain anxious ahead of the Fed’s policy statement on Wednesday. There have been indications that the central bank could eliminate its assertion that interest rates will remain low for a long time. The market will also have to look past Chinese industrial output data, which came in well below expectations. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) is showing some strength and should firm up ahead of the economic and Fed policy updates this week.
Treasuries corrected slightly higher in light trading overnight after major losses last week, as the markets await several key events. The 10-year yield slipped to 2.59% after settling above 2.6% last week for the first time in months. Overseas bond markets are mixed with core sovereign yields modestly lower too with the German Bund holding steady above 1%. Providing some support for bonds were disappointing production and loan data from China and the OECD's cut in growth forecasts for the largest developed economies. Key factors this week include the Wednesday's FOMC decision where there's significant risk of a hawkish change in forward guidance. As for the Scottish referendum, the "No's" have a fractional lead in surveys. The U.S. calendar is thin today with August industrial production and the September Empire State index.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – Here come the Bulls – The Company’s stock historically rises after a product announcement and this time is no different so far. The lemmings are lining up as analysts continue to pump up the shares. The stock isup slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Empire State Mfg. Survey
8:15 am CT –Industrial Production
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 9/15
Before Market: COCO
After Market: ALOG
Tuesday – 9/16:
Before Market: FDS
After Market: ADBE, APOG作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-16 09:04
9/16/2014
The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) held the $1980 level yesterday as stocks fell to start the week. We will most likely test this support area again today as U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of the opening bell. We had a big divergence in sectors yesterday as the tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) and small caps (RUT, IWM) were down sharply while the Dow Jones Industrials (DIA) were positive. Many market-watchers were pointing to rotation ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO this week. Are investors selling other high-flying tech and growth stocks to buy Alibaba shares? The uncertainty in stocks had option volatility moving higher yesterday. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) was up 6% on Monday and is higher by 25% in the last few weeks.
A continued turnaround in U.S. Treasuries is occurring again today. Bonds are firming up ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting after falling sharply last week. The 10-year yield settled back under 2.6% yesterday and is near 2.55% this morning. Asian markets were mostly lower overnight as China Mobile fell sharply on lack of clarity on a release date for the new Apple (AAPL) iPhone. A disappointing German economic sentiment survey and worries on the Scottish referendum put downward pressure on European shares. The U.S. calendar is thin today with only the Producer Price Index (PPI) due to sway markets. Most focus will be on the Fed and their announcement tomorrow afternoon.
Stock Stories:
Tesla Motors (TSLA) – Out of Juice? – The electric car maker’s stock fell 9% yesterday after an analyst agreed with the founder that the shares are over-priced. This and a possible rotation out of recent high-flyers ahead of the Alibaba (BABA) IPO put downward pressure on multiple names. The stock isup slightly ahead of the opening bell as traders try to support the shares.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT – Producer Price Index (PPI)
8:00 am CT – Treasury International Capital
FOMC Meeting Begins
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 9/16
Before Market: FDS
After Market: ADBE, APOG
Wednesday – 9/17:
Before Market: CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN
After Market: PIR, UNFI作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-17 08:55
9/17/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to slightly lower following yesterday’s big advance. Stocks fell early in yesterday’s session and then snapped into positive territory mid-morning on no news. Yesterday’s move was attributed to rumors that the Fed would maintain its accommodative stance in its statement expected to be released later today. The two day FOMC meeting will conclude this afternoon, and the committee's statement will be released at 1:00 pm CT. Option volatility was initially moving higher yesterday but dropped like a stone on the rally. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) dropped 10% on Tuesday and is reflecting little concern on today’s announcement from the Fed.
Treasuries are a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds, as the markets benefit from talk yesterday the FOMC might retain its "considerable time" phrase. There are also rumors floating of a liquidity injection by the People’s Bank of China to the 5 major Chinese banks. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.56% but still has support above 2.5%. European shares are higher following an upward revision to August HICP inflation and despite a cautious tone on growth from the BoE Minutes. It's all about the nuances in the FOMC statement today. Data will be of interest, especially as the calendar includes August CPI stats, which is an important indicator for the Fed. The September NAHB homebuilder survey is also due along with weekly oil inventories. The MBA reported mortgage implications rebounded 7.9% for the week ended September 12.
Stock Stories:
FedEx (FDX) – Delivered – The delivery company reported better than expected quarterly results this morning. The company is off to an outstanding start in fiscal 2015, thanks to very strong performance at FedEx Ground, solid volume and revenue increases at FedEx Freight. The stock isup 1.5% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 7.9%
7:30 am CT – Consumer Price Index (CPI)
9:00 am CT – Housing Market Index
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement & Forecast
1:30 pm CT – Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 9/17
Before Market: CBRL, FDX, GIS, LEN
After Market: PIR, UNFI
Thursday – 9/18:
Before Market: CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL
After Market: ORCL, RHT, TIBX作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-18 09:20
9/18/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors digest the news from the FOMC. Stocks are also getting a boost from news on more easing out of China. China’s Central Bank announced an injection of cash into the Country’s five biggest banks and they cut short-term borrowing costs. The FOMC stuck to its mantra of low interest rates and propping up stocks. Option volatility once again showed weakness but equities did bounce around quite a bit after the Fed announcement. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) should continue to fall if stocks remain in positive territory. Tomorrow is September options expiration and we can’t remember the last monthly cycle where stocks declined.
Treasuries are a little lower, as the downward trend continues.The 10-year yield is hovering around 2.60% this morning. Core bonds overseas are weaker in spillover from decline in Treasuries yesterday. Stocks are trading well, however, underpinned by the FOMC's low rate for a "considerable time" promise. Now the focus is on the Scottish referendum, where the British Pound is holding firm amid expectations the "No's" will prevail, though it's a close vote. On the economic front, it's a busy calendar. Initial jobless claims for the week ended September 13 (coincides with the BLS survey week), August housing starts, and September Philly Fed data are due. Additionally, the BLS will release its preliminary benchmark employment revisions, which may prove important.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – Reviewed – The company is piling up positive reviews for its long-awaited new iPhone. One review claimed it was sexy – which is ridiculous but sells magazines or papers. The shares of AAPL have stalled out on its recent rally but may pick up as sales numbers are reported. The stock is up 1% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Housing Starts
9:00 am CT – Philly Fed Survey
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Thursday – 9/18
Before Market: CAG, IHS, RAD, SCHL
After Market: ORCL, RHT, TIBX
Friday – 9/19:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-19 08:27
9/19/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher as investors are taking the Scottish vote to remain in the U.K as a sign of bullishness. The largest IPO in history (Alibaba-BABA) also has traders optimistic this morning. Yesterday saw equities rise yet again as improving Jobless Claims numbers put a bid in the market. The FOMC stuck to its plan of low interest rates and many analysts are raising their estimates for stocks this year. Option volatility fell again yesterday as stocks were in positive territory all day. The CBOE volatility Index (VIX) is near recent support levels around $12 so we could see some stabilization here.
Treasuries are higher which is a reversal from recent weakness.The 10-year yield rose above 2.60% yesterday and is at multi-month highs. European and Asian stocks were both higher on the news out of Scotland and continued easing by Central Banks. On the economic front, it's a light calendar with just leading economic indicators due. Today is quadruple witching for stocks and options and may provide some additional volatility in the markets.
Stock Stories:
Alibaba (BABA) – IPOing – The online mass market site out of China makes its debut today. The shares are supposedly opening near $68 a share but demand should be strong. Based on valuation to comparable growth companies, the stock will be undervalued below $100.
Major Economic Reports:
9:00 am CT – Leading Economic Indicators
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 9/19
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Monday – 9/22:
Before Market: AZO
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-21 21:07
Weekend Update
Equities were mixed this past week as specific sectors out-performed others. The Fed policy decision came in much as expected and gave the stock Bulls what they wanted. At mid-week, stocks advanced with investors reassured after the Federal Reserve maintained the words "considerable time" in its policy statement regarding keeping rates low after the end of taper. Also, equity traders saw as favorable the Fed's comments that the economy is expanding at a moderate pace and inflation is below its goal. Thursday, both the Dow Jones industrials and S&P closed at new record highs due to continued momentum from the Fed decision and a sharp decline in initial jobless claims. Friday, stocks ended mixed after initially showing notable gains after the "no" vote on Scottish independence. Helping support stocks was a very favorable IPO by Alibaba (BABA) while downdraft came from the energy sector. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week up 1.3% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) led the gains jumping 1.7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged the safety of large caps as they finished the week up a modest 0.3%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) fell a sharp 1.2% as the historical market-leading indicator may be forecasting a pause in the rally.
Option volatility fell this week as equities remained bid up for the most part. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 9% and is once again at multiyear support at low levels. We have typically seen the ‘Fear Gauge’ bounce off the $12 level repeatedly and hopefully we will see this happen again. Oil futures (/CL) were relatively flat for the week after hitting multi-month lows last week. OPEC stated they may cut output if energy prices continue to slide.
Bonds prices were flat for the week until Friday’s spike higher. Conversely, Treasury rates fell from two month highs. The 10-year yield broke through the 2.6% level but settled Friday at 2.58%. The FOMC left policy rates are unchanged. Also, taper remains on schedule to end with the October FOMC meeting. From this meeting, bond purchases were reduced by another $10 billion, starting in October, leaving just $15 billion per month. Guidance retained "considerable time" language for when the first rate increase follows the end of taper.
This week's focus is on housing and manufacturing. Last week's housing starts report notably disappointed and existing and new home sales will garner attention. Also, home price appreciation has softened and the FHFA home price report will add detail on strength in housing demand. Recent manufacturing data have been mixed with August industrial production soft but Empire State and Philly Fed for September somewhat positive. This week's durables report may add clarity regarding momentum at the national level and the GDP is due also.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – AZO
P.M. – ASNA
Tuesday:
A.M. – CCL, KMX, USAT
P.M.– BBBY, SCS
Wednesday:
A.M. – CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN
P.M. – FUL, JBL
Thursday:
A.M. – OMN, SCHL
P.M. – DMND, MU, NKE
Friday:
A.M. – BBRY, FINL
Economic Releases (9/22 – 9/26):
Monday:
7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales
9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks
6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks
7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results
8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks
Wednesday:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks
12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results
12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
Friday:
7:30 am CT - GDP
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-22 08:47
9/22/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing toward a lower open to start the new week after the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week at a record high. Although small caps and the tech sector hit a bump last week, Blue Chips and large caps were in demand from buyers. Growth concerns in China have surfaced again, which is negatively affecting global markets this morning. China’s Finance Minister stated they will not make policy changes based on a few indicators as downward pressures in the country remain. We should see a nice bounce in option volatility this morning if stocks remain in the red after the open today.
Risk off trades have boosted bonds, though yields have edged off of overnight lows. The 10-year rate tested 2.55% before moving up to 2.57% and the German Bund is at 1.04% after slipping earlier. Equities were under pressure as they opened Monday trading after China doused hopes for more stimulus, while the G20 warned of financial market risks. Also, profit taking on U.K. stocks after the largest 2-day rally in over a month added to the more bearish tone. The luster is also off the enthusiasm after the Alibaba (BABA) IPO on Friday. Before the open, the Chicago Fed national activity index for August is due at 7:30 and a report on existing home sales in August is due at 9 am. As the week progresses investors will also receive reports on new home sales in August, U.S. manufacturing and services activity in September, and another estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter. There is also plenty of Fed-Speak this week, which will hopefully put some clarity behind the FOMC statement from last week.
Stock Stories:
Alibaba (BABA) – IPO’ed – The e-commerce site out of China makes debuted as the largest IPO in U.S. history on Friday. The shares rallied over 38% above its opening price as demand was strong. Options on BABA begin trading early next week.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Chicago Fed National Activity Index
9:00 am CT –Existing Home Sales
9:05 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks
6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 9/22
Before Market: AZO
After Market: ASNA
Tuesday – 9/23:
Before Market: CCL, KMX, USAT
After Market: BBBY, SCS作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-23 09:12
9/23/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) may continue yesterday’s slide as they are pointing toward a lower open. Monday’s sell-off was broad-based but once again was led by the small cap (IEM, RUT) and tech (QQQ) sectors. Global growth concerns, falling commodity prices and interest rate direction put the Bears in control in these sectors. Overnight, U.S. stocks started off strong but reversed quickly after the negative data out of the Euro-Zone surfaced. Option volatility spiked higher off of support levels once again on the downturn yesterday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 13% and the ‘Fear Gauge’ should gain more momentum today if equities remain in the red.
Bonds extended gains modestly as stocks continued to erode. The 10-year Treasury yield tested 2.53% earlier on the back of the drop in the German Bund yield under 1.0%, though both have edged up from those levels. Interestingly, a better than expected flash PMI print from China at 50.5 was mostly shrugged off. European national PMIs were mixed. Meanwhile, U.K. mortgage approvals and government borrowing data worsened. In the U.S. the bond market must absorb $29 B in 2-year notes which kicks off $93 B in coupon offerings this week. As for data in the U.S., there is the PMI for September along with the July FHFA home price index, and the September Richmond Fed manufacturing index. Fed-speak from doves and hawks will be of interest, but may result in more confusion rather than clarity on the anticipated rate lift-off.
Stock Stories:
Herbalife (HLF) – Pyramid – The multi-level marketing company dumped 10% yesterday on rumors that investor Carl Icahn was selling his stake. Although the company is widely considered a Pyramid scheme, Icahn reported did not sell any of his stake. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:20 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks
7:30 am CT - Fed’s George Speaks
8:00 am CT – FHFA House Price Index
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results
8:15 pm CT - Fed’s George Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday– 9/23
Before Market: CCL, KMX, USAT
After Market: BBBY, SCS
Wednesday – 9/24:
Before Market: CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN
After Market: FUL, JBL作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-24 08:45
9/24/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly ahead of the opening bell. We had a massive sell-off at the end of the session yesterday as stocks posted a third straight day of losses. Equities fell Tuesday as the threat of war escalated in the Middle East and investors took off risk. Option volatility spiked higher again as investors continue to buy protection. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose another 13% and settled at its highest level in over a month. The ‘Fear Gauge’ may fall today but sentiment in stocks has reversed and selling rallies may be in play here.
Treasuries are a little weaker, in contrast to gains in European and most Asian bond markets after some weaker than expected data overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked up to 2.54% but has trended lower over the last few sessions. The second leg of Note auctions is today and the 5-year is a key one given its historical reactions to Fed policy. News overnight, including slump in the German confidence index, including a worrying drop in the expectations component, and a dip in Japan's PMI. There's not a lot on today's calendar. Along with the Note auction, there is data on August new home sales. The MBA just reported mortgage applications dropped 4.1% in the week ended September 20. There is also more Fed-speak today from Mester and Evans.
Stock Stories:
Amazon (AMZN) – Selling – The online retailer continues to ignore unions in Germany despite the recent outbreak of strikes. The company also just reported a global outage late Tuesday as customers had difficulty placing orders. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 4.1%
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
11:05 am CT - Fed’s Mester Speaks
12:00 pm CT - Fed’s Evans Speaks
12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 9/24
Before Market: CAN, KBH, PAYX, MTN
After Market: FUL, JBL
Thursday – 9/25:
Before Market: OMN, SCHL
After Market: DMND, MU, NKE作者: aimei 时间: 2014-9-24 12:27
THANKS
I SAW FEIFEI IS SHORTING MU作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-24 15:25
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are down slightly this morning in the pre-market. Stocks rallied over 1% yesterday as markets reversed recent weakness. Dovish comments from the usual Fed suspects including Charles Evans had investors feeling optimistic and hungry for riskier assets. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) continues to rally and is at one year highs. The Euro has fallen to its lowest levels in almost two years against the greenback as the economies diverge in growth. Option volatility fell sharply on Wednesday’s rally in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 11% but its recent rising trend above $12 has not been completely broken.
Bonds are mostly higher, albeit in relatively thin trading. Dovish comments from ECB's Draghi, who in an interview repeated that the use of additional non-standard measures is unanimously approved by the Council, helped lead sovereign debt markets higher. The action brought the German Bund yield back under 1.0% while the U.S. 10-year yield has fallen to 2.54% as the market recovers from yesterday's poorly subscribed 5-year auction. In the U.S. today the Treasury sells $29 B in 7-year notes to complete this week's auctions. The data calendar includes initial jobless claims, durable orders for August, and the flash services PMI for September. Durables remain volatile and skewed by massive aircraft orders. There is also more dovish Fed-speak from the Atlanta Fed's Lockhart this afternoon.
Stock Stories:
KB Homes (KBH) – Underwater – The home builder posted quarterly results that missed analyst expectations yesterday. Home deliveries in the quarter were tempered by delays in construction schedules and customer mortgage loan closings that resulted in some deliveries being deferred to the fourth quarter. The shares are down again this morning after a downgrade of the company..
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results
12:20 pm CT - Fed’s Lockhart Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 9/24
Before Market: OMN, SCHL
After Market: DMND, MU, NKE
Thursday – 9/25:
Before Market: BBRY, FINL
After Market: N/A作者: tianfangye 时间: 2014-9-25 09:28
U.S. equity futures (/ES) up slightly this morning ahead of the opening bell. Stocks fell sharply yesterday as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks put the Bears in charge. Hawkish comments from the Fed’s Fisher also triggered some of the sell-off. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (QQQ) led stocks to the downside yesterday as the sector dropped 2% led by a 4% decline in Apple (AAPL) shares. Option volatility rose sharply on the broad-based fall in equities. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 18% as traders were solid buyers of options. Several support levels were broken in the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) on Thursday. The next stop to the downside could be the $1950 and then the $1925 level, which is the 150-day moving average.
Treasuries have shed earlier gains but are still in positive territory. The 10-year yield sits near 2.50% after testing 2.48% overnight. European and Asian Bonds remain higher with the German Bund yield at 0.95% and now firmly under 1%. Stocks in Asia ended in the red following Wall Street's plunge Thursday, as U.S. equity futures and European bourses rebound. The U.S. Dollar is higher and continues to trend higher against other currencies. Weaker than expected German confidence data helped propel bonds higher, while Japanese CPI came in below expectations. Data today includes the third revision to Q2 GDP, with growth expected to be boosted to 4.4% from 4.2% previously. The final reading on consumer sentiment for September is also due and is expected to edge up to 85.0 from the anticipated 84.6.
Stock Stories:
Nike Inc. (NKE) – Swooshed! – The athletic apparel-maker posted better than expected quarterly results after the close yesterday. Improving margins and sales boosted revenue and FY15 guidance was lifted. The shares are up 7.5% this morning ahead of the opening bell, which is more than double what the option market was predicting into the report.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT - GDP
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 9/26
Before Market: BBRY, FINL
After Market: N/A
Monday – 9/29:
Before Market: CALM
After Market: CTAS作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-9-28 20:00
September 28, 2014
U.S. equities were lower this past week as numerous issues weighed on the markets. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East and interest rate concerns took center stage for the pull-back. The week started poorly as equities dropped on concerns about economic growth in China and an unexpected decline in existing home sales. Tuesday also dropped on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East pressured shares. Wednesday saw a rebound on rising new home Sales. Thursday dumped hard as it showed the largest daily declines in indexes, led down by the tech sector after Apple announced problems in its operating system. Geopolitical concerns also weighed on stocks but Friday saw these losses cut in half. An upward revision to GDP and positive corporate news led stocks back and cut weekly losses somewhat. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 1.4% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) were the strongest finishing only off by 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) lagged as they finished the week down a sharp 1.5%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 2.4% and led the entire market in the loss column. We will be curious to see if the forecast by the small caps leads to bigger losses for the overall market.
Option volatility rose sharply this week on the stock worries. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 22% and looks even stronger compared to only modest overall losses for equities. We need the ‘Fear Gauge’ to get closer to the $20 level before many show any real concern for further downside for stocks. Some key technical levels were breached by the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) this past week but it did settle above its 50-day moving average on Friday.
Treasury yields trended down all week with Wednesday being the daily exception in the other direction. Weak auction on Notes this week did not hamper Bond buyers as demand for the safety of Treasuries rebounded. Fed-Speak was mixed which also affected the Fixed income markets as the Doves and Hawks gave different views on the Fed’s interest rate decisions. There was also news on the largest Bond Fund as Pimco’s Bill Gross left the firm ahead of his firing. Many suspect that Bonds will go lower as Pimco would begin selling their substantial holding from his tenure at the firm.
The two big reports this upcoming week are the employment situation and the personal income report. Last month's payroll gain was deeply disappointing and the economy needs to see improvement for September. Personal income growth for July also was sluggish as stronger gains are needed for the consumer to keep spending at a decent pace. Housing has been a big question mark with the latest housing sales numbers mixed. The FHFA home price growth slowed and Case-Shiller actually dipped in the latest report. We will also be watching the developments on the Geopolitical front. There are also rumors that the ECB may act this upcoming week or at least come out with more information on kick-starting the Euro-Zone economy.
Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:
Monday:
A.M. – CALM
P.M. – CTAS
Tuesday:
A.M. – COCO, WAG
P.M.– N/A
Wednesday:
A.M. – AYI
P.M. – GAME
Thursday:
A.M. – ATU, MKC, STZ
P.M. – RECN
Friday:
A.M. – N/A
Economic Releases (9/29 – 10/3):
Monday:
7:30 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays
8:00 am CT - Fed’s Dudley Speaks
9:00 am CT –Pending Home Sales
9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey
Tuesday:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller HPI
8:30 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
Wednesday:
Auto Sales – All Day
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
Thursday:
7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories
Friday:
7:30 am CT – September Jobs Data
7:30 am CT – International Trade
8:45 am CT – PMI Services Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Mfg. Index作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-5 08:40
Weekend Update
October 4, 2014
Numerous issues weighed on markets this early in the week. Geopolitical concerns, mixed economic data, health fears and quantitative easing decisions in Europe all fed into the big swings in equities. Equities were down sharply through Thursday but good numbers from the employment report on Friday cut losses notably. At the start of the week, stocks fell, after the worst week in almost two months for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (SPX), as protests in Hong Kong were added to geopolitical concerns. Also, a rebound in consumer spending raised speculation that the Fed may raise interest rates sooner than earlier anticipated. Ebola fears along with downbeat economic and housing data continued to pressure stocks. Thursday, stocks ended nearly unchanged, while small-cap shares rebounded after huge morning losses. There was a notable amount of bottom fishing and initial jobless claims declined more than expected. At the end of the week, better-than-expected payroll gains were seen as good news for the economy and stocks recouped part of the losses seen earlier in the week. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) finished the week down 0.8% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) finished off by 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down 0.8%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) dropped 1.3% and led the entire market in the loss column once again.
Option volatility actually fell according to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as it showed a 2% slide. The ‘Fear Gauge’ typically rises on equity losses but Friday’s rally caused it to fall sharply. We have seen a steady rise in Volatility until this week but the momentum is still to the upside as long as interest rate concerns and geopolitical risks remain. Put volume was about twice the Call volume but many investors may be taking a bullish stance by selling Puts after the big slide in equities.
Treasury yields were down moderately this past week. Monday, yields dipped on flight to safety on news of protests in Hong Kong. After little change Tuesday, rates declined notably Wednesday as traders shifted funds to the U.S. as most Group of Seven nations had less attractive rates along with concern that global growth is slowing. At week's close, rates edged up on the jobs report. The U.S. dollar (/DX) rallied strongly this week and is at levels not seen since June 2010.
It’s a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on the jobs market and the Fed debate. Last week, payroll jobs topped expectations and this week's JOLTS report and jobless claims may confirm further improvement in the labor market. The most recent Fed policy statement indicated that there is considerable internal debate on the timing of the next rate increase. This week's release of Fed FOMC minutes could add insight into the Fed debate. Economic expansion appears to continue at a very moderate pace; however it has been quite volatile in some sectors. The consumer is very uncertain about the economy but jobs are up along with spending, but confidence is down. Earnings season kicks off this week and should bring some clarity to corporate health into the fourth quarter.
It’s the start of a new week and many Wall Street bulls are hoping they get a reprieve from the beating they have been taking lately. Economic data was relatively light last week and many market participants focused on the release of the September FOMC minutes, apparently that was all it took. Although there was a steady supply of economic data pointing to moderating global growth in the past few months, the acknowledgement by the FOMC that the US economy was at risk of being negatively affected by a weaker than expected economic outlook sent markets into tailspin. Small caps were hit the hardest as the Russell 2000 (RUT) finished down 4.8% with the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) not far behind finishing the week down 3% and 4% respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) popped 275 points on Wednesday only drop 335 points (its largest drop since mid-2013) the very next day. The violent swings in equities pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) above $20 for the first time since February of this year.
Volatile markets and slowing global growth pushed many investors into safe havens and US Treasury yields continued to fall. The serious threat of Europe slipping back into recession territory gave more strength to the dollar (/DX) and pushed crude oil (/CL) as low as $83.59.
This week traders will start to get plenty of data to digest; highlighted by retail sales being released on Wednesday, industrial production on Thursday, and housing starts on Friday. Earnings season will also start to pick up with many of the major financials and a few large tech companies reporting. Of particular interest to investors will be how the strong dollar has affected earnings for companies with a large international footprint.
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment作者: aimei 时间: 2014-10-12 21:13
Market opens on Monday
Thanks作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-13 08:54
10/13/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are indicating a modest rise this morning following the worst weekly outcome on record since May of 2012. Both the bond market and banks will be closed today in observance of Columbus Day potentially creating more volatility in conjunction with fewer market participants. Undoubtedly, banking stocks will be included in the headlines for the remainder of the week with several of the “Too Big to Fail” institutions slated to report quarterly earnings. Bulls will be desperate to uncover any indication of earnings growth to fend off the strong downtrend which appears to be building momentum.
Oil futures (/CL) are extending the recent slide in the price of oil with no end in sight, quietly becoming an unforeseen boon to global economies that continually struggled to outpace surging energy prices ever since the financial crisis. Visible turmoil among the OPEC community regarding appropriate production levels may indicate even more short-term weakness until a possible consensus can be made leading up to their next meeting on Nov. 27th.
Stronger than expected September import/export data out of China overnight has given much of Asia a much needed bump with the exception of Japan as the ever important trade partner saw double-digit increases year/year. Much of Europe has reversed higher as well to begin the week as cheaper oil prices begin to raise optimism in a part of the globe that appears on the verge of yet another recession.
Stock Stories:
Boeing (BA) – Lift Off – The aircraft-maker announces a major deal this morning with Indonesia worth over $5B for the delivery of 50 new planes. BA shares are up slightly in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
Banking/Government Holiday in Observance of Columbus Day
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 10/13:
Before Market: N/A
After Market: N/A
Tuesday – 10/14:
Before Market: C, JNJ, JPM,WFC
After Market:CSX, INTC, WWW作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-14 08:40
10/14/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are up slightly in the pre-market as Wall Street attempts to reverse recent heavy losses. The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell another 1.6% on Monday as stocks extended its slide. The Index is now below its 200–day moving average for the first time in almost two years and has joined other indices in that trend. Tech’s (QQQ) remain above this technical level for now but there is plenty of upcoming earnings to sway this sector. Option volatility continues to shoot higher as equity markets remain in free-fall. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped another 16% Monday and is at levels not seen since June of 2012. We may see the ‘Fear Gauge’ reverse today if stocks can somehow stop the bleeding and remain in positive territory.
Treasuries are sharply higher on more flight to quality flows as the market reopens from yesterday's holiday where the Dow Industrials plunged another 1.3%. The 10-year yield is down to 2.19%, a fresh year-to-day low and the lowest since June 2013. Many global bonds have fallen to all-time lows with the German Bund at 0.84%. Adding to investor worries were weak data in Europe with a drop in the German confidence index, a fall in Euro-zone industrial production fell 1.8%. A weaker than expected U.K. inflation also put pressure on the economic outlook. There's not a lot on today's calendar, with just weekly chain store sales due along with the beginning of financial earnings.
Stock Stories:
JP Morgan Chase (JPM) – Withdraw – The banking giant posted a mixed quarterly report this morning as EPS missed but top-line Revenue beat expectations. While global economies are still struggling, the CEO stated the U.S. economy is still growing and corporate America is healthy. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – good medicine – The consumer goods/pharma company posted better than expected earnings this morning. The company also raised its FY14 EPS estimates slightly which has its shares up 1% in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales - Down 0.7% for the week
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 10/14
Before Market: C, JNJ, JPM, WFC
After Market: CSX, INTC, WWW
Wednesday – 10/15:
Before Market: BAC, BLK, NTRS, PNC, STJ
After Market: AXP, EBAY, KMI,LVS, NFLX作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-15 09:27
10/15/2014
U.S. equity futures (/ES) are getting hammered again this morning as they continue to slide as we get closer to the open. Crude prices (/CL) are falling again today and are trading near $80 a barrel. Oil is now down 25% since June as inventories and supplies pick up while global demand falls. Stocks rose sharply yesterday morning but fell again throughout the day to barely finish in positive territory. Option volatility fell sharply as equities traded in positive territory for most of Tuesday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% but finished above mid-session lows. We will most likely see the ‘Fear Gauge’ go higher again today if stocks remain under pressure.
The Flight to safety continues in the Treasury market this morning. Bonds are sharply higher again as global equities weaken on falling economic growth. German Bunds are leading the rally with the rate down to a new record low at 0.81%. The 10-yeaer Treasury yield has fallen to 2.18% and has its sights set on 2%. Germany again sold its 2-year Note with a negative yield (-0.06%). There wasn't a lot of data overnight, but today's U.S. calendar is loaded and includes September retail sales, the October Empire State manufacturing index, and September PPI on tap, along with August business inventories. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged 5.6% in the week ended October 10 but it was all due to refinances as rates have dropped. The Fed's Beige Book for the October 28, 29 FOMC is also due later today and should again say growth is moderate to modest. Earnings announcements will be heard from Bank of America (BAC), American Express (AXP), eBay (EBAY) and Netflix (NFLX).
Stock Stories:
Bank of America (BAC) – Deposited – The banking giant posted a slightly better than quarterly report as EPS and top-line Revenue beat expectations. The CEO stated the U.S. economy is still growing and they saw solid customer and client activity. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Intel Corp. (INTC) – Short circuit – The tech bellwether posted better than expected earnings after yesterday’s close. The company reported solid gross margins but continues to rely on share buybacks to boost its bottom line. The shares rose after the report yesterday but are now down slightly this morning in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – up 5.6% for the week
It looks like the roller coaster will continue today in the markets. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are getting hammered again this morning after a wild ride on Wednesday. The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) finished the session only down less than 1% but at one point was off 3%. Crude prices (/CL) are down again today as oil is not helping stocks at this point. Lower oil prices will eventually help the consumer but falling prices will also negatively affect parts of the economy. Option volatility spiked significantly as equities were all over the place during yesterday’s session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 15% and was above $30 for the first time since November of 2011. We will most likely see the ‘Fear Gauge’ go higher again today if stocks remain in the red.
Bonds are off to the races again as the rout in equities continues. Flight to the safety of Treasuries has knocked the 10-year Note yield back down to the 2.0% level. The spike in Treasuries yesterday had the inverse yields under the 1.9% level at one point on Wednesday. The German Bund and the Japanese 10-year yields are hitting lows also as stocks slide. Stocks are sharply lower again as growth and Ebola fears grip investors. Today's U.S. reports on September industrial production, the October Philly Fed index, August Treasury capital flows and weekly initial jobless claims will be closely monitored for what they imply on growth. There is a host of Fed-speak today from hawks and doves, including Plosser, Lockhart, Kocherlakota, and Bullard. There are earnings announcements from Goldman Sachs (GS), Google (GOOG/GOOGL), Delta (DAL), UnitedHealth (UNH), and SanDisk (SNDK).
Stock Stories:
Netflix (NFLX) – Crossed Streams – The online streaming company posted better than expected EPS last night after the close and Revenue was relatively in line. The problem was lower guidance as subscription growth will be lower than anticipated going forward. The shares are down 25% ahead of the opening bell!
Goldman Sachs (GS) – Squids – The investment bank posted blow-out numbers this morning on its quarterly report. The company raised its Dividend and client activity picked up. Despite the positive earnings, the shares are down slightly this morning in the pre-market.
After Market: AMD, ATHN, COF, GOOG/GOOGL, IBM, SNDK, SLB, SYK
Friday – 10/17:
Before Market: BK, CMA, GE, HON, MS, STI
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-17 08:48
10/17/2014
Remain Calm...Everything is fine?! U.S. equity futures (/ES) are sharply higher as the massive swings in the markets continue. Most of the gains are being attributed to comments from Fed member Bullard yesterday about additional QE despite the fact that he is not a voting member of the FOMC. Additionally, Europe's stock markets are roundly higher, which may be offering traders some relief and optimism. Fed Chair Janet Yellen will be speaking this morning but is not expected to stray from any recent remarks, but the market will be listening for any change in tone. Option volatility should fall quickly after the open if equities remain positive. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 4% yesterday but still settled above the $25 level. Stocks had another choppy session on Thursday but calmed down somewhat from the swings earlier in the week.
Treasuries and other core sovereigns are lower as risk appetite improves. Dovish comments from the Bank of England's chief economist that rates could stay lower for longer had little effect on debt markets overseas. The 10-year Treasury yield is higher at 2.18% and has bounced nicely off of this week’s low. European stock marekts are registering gains of better than 1% amid hopes for ECB stimulus. An ECB Executive Board member stated that asset buying could begin within days and has equities rising. The speech from Fed Chair Yellen this morning will highlight today but data also includes September housing starts and the preliminary numbers on consumer sentiment. Earnings reports today come from General Electric (GE), Morgan Stanley (MS) and various other financials.
Stock Stories:
Google (GOOG/GOOGL) – Searched – The search giant posted quarterly results after the close yesterday and the numbers were lighter than expected. Cost per clicks was lower vs. last year and analysts are lowering their price targets this morning. The shares are down about 1% ahead of the opening bell.
General Electric (GE) – Lights on – The global conglomerate posted better than expected EPS this morning but missed slightly on top-line revenue. The companyexpects strong Industrial segment growth and margin expansion in 2014. The shares are up 4% this morning in the pre-market.
While the volatile swings led many to believe the markets were down significantly for the week, equities finished only off modestly. Monday, stocks dropped sharply in light trading on the heels of crude oil prices dropping to their lowest levels in almost four years. Tuesday, equities mostly rebounded as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended up slightly higher before dropping sharply at mid-week on lower retail sales and PPI data. Stocks were mixed on Thursday after non-voting FOMC member Bullard stated we could see additional Quantitative Easing. We finished the week up sharply on higher consumer sentiment data and a reversal in European markets. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) both finished the week down 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) finished the week down a modest 0.4%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) actually rallied 2.8% and will attempt to lead stocks higher next week.
Option volatility was on a roller coaster this week as stocks had massive swings. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) had only a 3.5% gain for the week but the trading range was significant. The ‘Fear Gauge’ rose above $30 on Thursday morning for the first time since November of 2011. We don’t believe this is the end of volatile trading as faith in the Fed is being questioned on more QE. Also, deflation concerns, dismal economic growth and the Ebola threat should add plenty of volatility in the near-term.
Treasury yields were down only moderately this past week despite steep declines mid-week. The 10-year yield slipped under 1.9% on Wednesday as Treasuries saw a huge spike higher. We then saw rates quickly reverse and finish the week only off slightly. Despite the daily swings in rates, traders are still concerned about growth overseas slowing as well as inflation. Oil futures (/CL) also dipped sharply mid-week on slowing growth concerns but managed to gain some losses back on Thursday and Friday. Lower crude prices should have a positive effect on consumer spending going into the holiday season.
It’s going to be a relatively light week of news with the only highlights are on housing and the CPI. The housing sector has been giving mixed signals recently with sales and prices sluggish but last week's housing starts showing a rebound. Globally, price inflation has softened, leading central banks to cut back on aggressive language on reducing balance sheets. This week's CPI report may influence market views on when the Fed next raises policy rates as inflation remains well below target of 2 percent. Earnings also get into full swing this week with key tech results from bellwethers Apple (AAPL), IBM and Yahoo (YHOO). Blue chips quarterly results are also due from McDonalds (MCD), Boeing (BA) and Dow Chemical (DOW).
9:00 am CT – New Home Sales作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-20 08:57
10/20/2014
Stocks reversed sharply in the last couple of hours as the roller coaster may continue. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower following disappointing earnings from tech giant IBM (IBM). Stocks were sharply higher overnight but reversed quickly this morning on the disappointing report from the tech services bellwether. The market is coming off one of its biggest single day gains of the year on Friday and appears ready to continue the volatility that has been prevalent in the market over the past few weeks. Earnings will ramp up this week and should guide stocks as economic data is relatively light. Dow futures (/YM) will out-perform to the downside today as IBM is a big component in the Price-weighted Index. Option volatility may rise today after Friday’s equity rally hit it by 12%. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains above the $21 level but may run into some resistance near $25.
Risk-off trading has swung this morning after bonds sold off overnight. Treasuries are now higher, having traded significantly lower while we were sleeping. The 10-year yield is at 2.17% and well above last week’s massive slide on Wednesday. Global bonds are mixed with Asian bonds mostly lower on risk-on action as equities rallied thanks to Wall Street's Friday gains. Despite this, European bonds are higher as Euro-zone equities track U.S. stock futures lower following poor earnings news from IBM. There was little economic news overnight. U.S. economic calendar is empty; however there is a couple of Fed members speaking. There more earnings reports to with investors awaiting Apple (AAPL) news in particular. Also on tap are Chipotle (CMG), Halliburton (HAL), Texas Instruments (TXN), Whirlpool (WHR) and several financials.
Stock Stories:
Intl. Business Machines (IBM) – Feeling BLUE! – The tech services giant reported a horrible quarter this morning (was supposed to be released after the close). The company is paying to get rid of its microelectronics business and revenue continues to fall despite its restructuring efforts. The shares are down about 6% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
9:00 am CT - Fed’s Powell Speaks
11:00 am CT - Fed’s Tarullo Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 10/20:
Before Market: GCI, HAL, HAS, IBM, PETS, SAP, VRX, VFC
Positive earnings data has stocks reversing overnight losses as companies beat lowered expectations. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are back above the $1900 level and the Dow Industrials may be up triple digits again today. Better than expected results from Apple (AAPL), United Technologies (UTX) and Travelers (TRV) are pushing equities higher. Positive GDP data out of China also has investors optimistic this morning. Oil (/CL) is up slightly as economist’s battle over the pros and cons of lower crude prices. While lower oil prices help the consumer, it is also a reflection of slowing growth and negative outlooks on the economy. Option volatility fell like a stone as stocks rallied significantly to start the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell 15% and is now back under the $19 level. We will most likely see it continue to grind lower as the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) is now above support at $1900.
Risk-on trading is in effect this morning as Treasuries are lower. As Treasuries fall, yields are rising as the 10-year yield is near 2.2%. Japan's Nikkei dove over 2% lower while China's Shanghai index slid 0.72% despite some better than expected GDP data. Japanese shares suffered from profit taking and a stronger Yen and Chinese equities dropped after the data eroded hopes for more stimulus. Meanwhile, European and U.S. stocks are higher after aided by a positive outlook on corporate results. Data remains light with just September existing home sales and weekly chain store sales. Earnings will continue to drive stocks as most geopolitical concerns are off the radar once again.
Stock Stories:
Apple (AAPL) – Ringing – The tech product maker posted better than expected earnings after the close yesterday as iPhone sales pushed Revenue and EPS far above estimates. The company is selling everything they make and demand for products should extend through the holidays. The shares are up 1% ahead of the opening bell.
Coca-Cola (KO) – Flat soda – The beverage giant posted in-line EPS this morning but missed on top-line Revenue. The company is expecting its long term EPS growth to be below expectations and is blaming currency fluctuations. The shares are down 3% in the pre-market.
Stocks had another strong rally yesterday on the back of corporate earnings despite a few glaring misses from heavyweights Coca-Cola (KO) and McDonalds (MCD). This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading quietly lower, deviating from the trend of the past few weeks which have been marked by extreme volatility. The market has put together its biggest rally of the year over the past week and has recouped all of the previous week’s losses. Today investors will be watching a bevy of earnings reports as well as domestic economic data, including reports on consumer prices and the weekly oil inventory numbers. Option volatility continued to fall as investors continued to pour into equities albeit on low volume. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell another 13% and is now back near the $16 level. Hopefully we will see some consolidation and a reversal higher in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today.
Treasuries are reversing its recent trend lower by moving a little higher, in tandem with gains in global bonds. Euro-zone stress test failures at 11 banks helped put a bid in bonds, and also knocked the Euro currency lower. The MBA reported mortgage applications surged 11.6% as refinances saw a massive jump but purchases lagged. Earnings reports today include AT&T (T), Boeing (BA), General Motors (GM) and Dow Chemical (DOW). So far nearly 80% of the S&P companies that have reported have beaten bottom-line forecasts, while just over 60% have topped revenue estimates.
Stock Stories:
Boeing (BA) – Flying High – The aircraft-make posted better than expected earnings numbers this morning as its backlog continues to grow. The company also raised its FY14 core EPS estimates. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Stocks broke their recent uptrend during Wednesday’s session but look to regain some upward momentum this morning. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading higher on the heels of better than expected data out of the Euro-Zone. We saw some profit taking yesterday and a shooting at the Canadian Parliament also contributed to the weak finish. There are numerous earnings reports for investors to pore over today, along with some economic data which is scheduled to be released later this morning. Option volatility reversed higher on the downturn yesterday but may give some of the gains back today if we remain in positive territory. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 11% as option buyers were aggressive but it looks as if we will most likely see a complete reversal of the gains today.
The ‘Risk-On’ trade may be in order today for investors. Treasuries are lower as stocks jump to the pre-market highs. There was also modest declines in European bonds after some better than expected PMI readings. U.S. equity futures are rebounding after yesterday's declines on the improved manufacturing data and positive earnings. However, European bourses are flat to slightly lower after disappointing earnings news and misses in U.K. retail sales and mortgage lending data. Asian equities tracked Wednesday's weakness on Wall Street. Today's calendar is full and includes the PMI for October, initial jobless claims for the week ended October 18 and the August FHFA home price numbers. Earnings reports today include 3M (MMM), United Continental (UAL), Under Armor (UA) and Amazon (AMZN).
Stock Stories:
General Motors (GM) – Spin out – The auto-maker posted a better than expected EPS number but missed on Revenue once again. The stock price has fallen by 24% this year due to recalls and management flubs but the shares are up 3% ahead of the opening bell today.
Caterpillar (CAT) – Earth-Moving – The industrial-machine maker posted better than expected quarterly results this morning albeit on lowered expectations as the company previously lowered guidance. The Bulls are ignoring this to send the shares up 6% ahead of the opening bell.
The Ebola scare in NYC put the brakes on the massive rally during Thursday’s session but they still managed a solid gain on the back of improving corporate results. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lower as the situation may put pressure on markets over the next few days. Stocks may also be cautious into the release of the Stress Tests from the European Union’s banks, which are due this weekend. The Fed is also expected to end its asset purchases at next week’s FOMC meeting. Option volatility reversed higher in the afternoon yesterday but still finished the day down sharply on the equity rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 7% as the benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up over 1%. Into an uncertain weekend, we may see some risk-aversion and a rally in the ‘Fear Gauge.’
Treasuries are sharply higher as stocks slump in the U.S. Global bond yields are lower also with the 10-year Treasury down to 2.20%. Stocks are on the decline amid after poor earnings news from Amazon (AMZN). Chinese property prices declined in 69 of 70 cities but German consumer confidence surprised on the high side. The calendar is light in the U.S. today with just September new home sales.
Stock Stories:
Ford (F) – Driving – The auto-maker posted a better than expected earnings report this morning albeit on lowered guidance. Production has slowed but the company still expects a profit of $6B this year – Pretax. The shares are up modestly ahead of the opening bell.
Proctor & Gamble (PG) – In-Line – The consumer product-maker posted EPS that met analyst expectations but Revenue fell short. The company is blaming macroeconomic conditions and currency effects on the lower numbers. Traders are ignoring the downside as the shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Earnings were the story of the week as positive corporate results propelled equities higher. Economic data was mixed but remains on a slow upward grind as modest growth helps stocks. This was the first positive week for stocks in over a month and the momentum could carry into the end of the year. The week started off well despite lackluster earnings from the tech bellwether IBM. Strong gains on Tuesday were on the back of upbeat earnings from Apple and reports that the European Central Bank was considering buying corporate bonds. Equities fell sharply at mid-week after a shooting at the Canadian Parliament and falling oil prices. Markets shot higher into the end of the week as positive quarterly earnings from Blue Chip companies put more bids in stocks. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 4.1% and the Blue Chip-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DJI) finished the week up 2.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the benchmark indices finishing up 5.3%. The small caps (RUT, IWM) rose 3.4% but started the reversal higher the prior week.
Option volatility began to fall immediately last week as the stock rebound was strong. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell a whopping 26% last week as traders were in ‘Risk-On’ mode. The ‘Fear Gauge’ is back near $16 and momentum remains for little downside risk at this point. Ebola fears can quickly reverse the downward trend for volatility but concern remains low. We are also heading into the all-important holiday shopping season and expectations are for a solid consumer spending cycle, which has sellers scare.
Treasury yields rose this past week on reversal of flight to safety and healthy economic data. The reversal was quick and the 10-year yield is now back above 2.25%. Expectations are for the Fed to keep rates low for longer than anticipated and growth remains only modest for the U.S. economy. Oil futures (/CL) remain at low levels and should eventually help spending by the consumer. The positive economic affect from lower crude prices has been slow but is showing signs of improvement.
This coming week's highlight is the Fed's FOMC decision. The Fed is expected to end bond purchase programs but there may be some dissent based on recent Fed-Speak. Traders will be focusing on the state of the economy and guidance on the timing of the first rate increase likely next year. Manufacturing has shown signs of softening so the durables report will be important for forward momentum in this sector. With the economy based over 70% on consumer spending, economists and traders will also closely watch the retail sales data into the holiday shopping season.
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-27 08:49
10/27/2014
October is typically the scariest month for stocks and this one is not disappointing. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading lowerand trading should remain nervous and volatile heading into month-end. Today, investors will mull the Euro-zone stress test results, FOMC uncertainties and growth concerns. We will also continue to watch the jittery climate due to Ebola and terror worries. This along with a FOMC meeting should provide the fuel for potentially choppy markets. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell over 25% last week as stocks finished strongly into the close on Friday.
‘Risk-On’ trading was in favor last week as equities reversed higher. Treasuries are modestly higher this morning and have reversed from overnight lows. The 10-year Treasury yield is fractionally lower at 2.25%. Markets took the European bank stress tests in stride, as much of the general information had been leaked late last week but disappointing German data helped boost Euro-zone bonds at the expense of stocks. Economic data is light today and the wait is on for Wednesday's FOMC announcement. As for today the data highlight is the flash services PMI report. September pending home sales and the October Dallas Fed manufacturing index are also due. The NY Fed conducts what is likely to be the last of the QE3 buybacks this week but clarity on that will come on Wednesday.
Stock Stories:
Merck (MRK) – Good Medicine – The pharmaceutical leader posted mixed earnings this morning as revenue came in a little light. Their sales were down from last year but guidance remains intact for FY14. The shares are slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.
Twitter (TWTR) – Anticipation – The social media company reports earnings after the close today. The anticipated market-maker move is about 10% after the report and volatility is highly elevated into the event.
Before Market: AMTD, AET, AGN, AN, BP, COH, CNX, DD, FCX, GLW, PFE, SHW, HOT, UBS, WHR, WYNN
After Market: AFL, APC, CHRW, EA, ESRX, FB, GILD, MAR, PNRA, WDC, X作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-28 09:10
10/28/2014
Stocks historically are influenced by the massive Treasury market but now they are also influenced by Oil (/CL) prices. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are higher this morning as the market looks ready to extend its most recent winning streak and crude prices have firmed up. The week started off choppy as stocks finished Monday down slightly. Investors are most likely optimistic ahead of the FOMC meeting and potentially more dovish statements. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished the session basically flat and should fall today if equities remain in positive territory. Corporate results continue to out-perform for the most part but many blame financial engineering, which will not last if growth does not begin to expand.
Treasuries are lower this morning and are trading inversely with equities. The 10-year Treasury yield picking up but should remain low based on recent Fed-Speak. European and Asian markets were sharply higher overnight on optimistic views on the global economy. The FOMC meeting begins today with the interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon. Investors are expecting Quantitative Easing to end but expect a dovish-easy policy statement as inflation and growth are muted. There is plenty of economic data today led by Durable goods and Consumer confidence. Earnings season is also in full swing and traders will focus on Facebook (FB) results after the close.
Stock Stories:
Pfizer (PFE) –Medicinal – The pharmaceutical giant posted a beat on earnings this morning. The company is still dealing with negative impact from product losses of exclusivity but held firm on forward guidance. The shares are slightly higher ahead of the opening bell.
Twitter (TWTR) – silenced – The social media company reported in-line EPS and beat slightly on revenue on its quarterly call last night. Guidance was modest and analysts apparently are souring on the shares with a few downgrades this morning. The anticipated move in the shares was about $6 and that’s how much the stock is down in the pre-market.
Major Economic Reports:
FOMC Meeting Begins
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 0.3% for week
7:30 am CT – Durable Goods Orders
8:00 am CT – S&P Case Shiller HPI
9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence
9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index
12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 10/28:
Before Market: AMTD, AET, AGN, AN, BP, COH, CNX, DD, FCX, GLW, PFE, SHW, HOT, UBS, WHR, WYNN
After Market: AFL, APC, CHRW, EA, ESRX, FB, GILD, MAR, PNRA, WDC, X
Wednesday – 10/29:
Before Market: ETN, EXC, GRMN, HSY, HES, H, RL, SODA, SO, WM, WLP
After Market: AKAM, ALL, ATML, BIDU, KRFT, MET, SPWR, TRLA, V, WMB作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-10-29 08:33
10/29/2014
It will be all about the Fed today as the FOMC releases its statement on interest rates and Quantitative Easing at 1 pm CT. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are lower this morning as corporate earnings took a hit on the back of disappointing Facebook (FB) and Twitter (TWTR) guidance. Yesterday saw another massive rally led by optimism about dovish Fed policy and improving earnings. The market-leading small cap sector (IWM, RUT) out-performed and rose almost 3%, which pushed equities above a few important technical resistance levels. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finished the session down another 10% and is moving as if stocks will continue to rise with little downside risk. Complacency is back and traders are potentially predicting more accommodation from the Fed and Central Banks across the globe.
Treasuries are little changed amid mixed markets overseas with Asian sovereigns mostly lower and European bonds mostly in the green. The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering just under 2.30% and ‘Risk-on’ trading was the theme yesterday. Overnight data showed a drop in German exports to Russia. U.K. lending data came in below forecast, though Japanese industrial production rebounded 2.7% last month. The markets now await the FOMC announcement this afternoon, though it might not be that much of a price mover. Data is light today but this morning’s MBA reported mortgage applications fell 6.6% in the week ended October 24. Earnings reports today come from Visa (V), Kraft Foods (KRFT), Sodastream (SODA), Metlife (MET), Ralph Lauren (RL), Hyatt Hotels (H) and Baidu (BIDU).
Stock Stories:
Sodastream (SODA) –Fad Is Fading – The at-home beverage maker posted an EPS beat this morning on earnings but missed badly on revenue expectations. The company’s best days may be behind it as growth has slowed and sales are slipping. The shares are relatively flat ahead of the opening bell but are down 55% for the year.
Facebook (FB) – Short Term/Long Term – The social media company reported a beat on EPS and revenue on its quarterly call last night. Despite the growth, the company announced a ramp up in expenses and investment for monetization. The stock initially rose in after-hours trading but fell after the conference call. The shares are down 8% ahead of the bell which is more than the expected move.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 6.6%
9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories
12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results
1:00 pm CT – FOMC Meeting Announcement
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 10/29:
Before Market: ETN, EXC, GRMN, HSY, HES, H, RL, SODA, SO, WM, WLP
After Market: AKAM, ALL, ATML, BIDU, KRFT, MET, SPWR, TRLA, V, WMB
Thursday – 10/30:
Before Market: CAH, CI, CME, GG, K, MGM, MO, MOS, S, TWC, WWE
I hope you slept well and didn’t worry about the global markets falling. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are soaring higher in the wake of stimulus measures implemented by the bank of Japan (BoJ). The move was highly unexpected and once again showed that Japan is taking a big move to pump up its dismal economy. I’m sure that the investing community will now turn its focus to the European Central Bank (ECB) for a potential similar plan as their economies weaken. The U.S. Dollar is rising again which has commodities such as Gold (/GC) and Oil (/CL) falling. Volatility fell modestly yesterday as stocks rose again on the heels of an improving GDP number. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at $14.52 and the ‘Fear Gauge’ should fall sharply today as equities advance. Although the action by the BoJ is deemed as a positive, it shows that all the Central Bank policies across the globe do not necessarily help the economies…only asset prices such as stocks.
Treasuries are down this morning as investors will most likely pour into riskier assets such as stocks. The 10-year Treasury yield finished over 2.30% yesterday and will rise today as Bonds fall. Japan finished up 5% on the stimulus announcement and Europe is up about 2%. Most of Japan's heavy data slate revealed weaker growth and inflation, while German retail sales dove 3.2% lower. There's a lot on the U.S. calendar today, including September personal income and spending, Consumer Sentiment and the Chicago PMI. Energy stocks will report earnings today also as results are due from Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX).
Stock Stories:
Starbucks (SBUX) –Needs Caffeine!– The coffee giant posted in line EPS after the close yesterday but Revenue and global sales were lighter than expected. The shares are down 3.5% ahead of the bell which is what option markets had priced in yesterday.
Major Economic Reports:
7:30 am CT – Personal Income & Outlays
7:30 am CT –Employment Cost Index
8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI
8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment
Notable Earnings:
Friday – 10/31:
Before Market: AON, BUD, CBOE, CVX, CLX, D, SNE, WY, XOM
Equities exceeded expectations this past week with both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJX) recording new highs to close out a volatile month. Stocks gained momentum all week long with many of the downside catalysts from earlier in October essentially becoming obsolete. Stronger than expected earnings continue to drive confidence with over 75% of S&P 500 companies handily beating estimates of those already released. Approximately 150/500 companies in the index remain as one of the strongest earning seasons in recent history begins to wind down. Overly hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve Statement announcing the conclusion of QE did little to rattle investors after Thursday’s concrete 3.5% quarterly GDP figure corroborated the authenticity of the economic recovery.
Option volatility continued to implode to new October lows just above $14 after the spike earlier in the month was quickly reduced in half. The U.S. Dollar (/DX, UUP) also shot to a new yearly high Friday after the Bank of Japan’s surprise announcement to rapidly accelerate their current stimulus jolted equity markets across the globe. Crude Oil (/CL) may likely be the asset class most affected by the surging dollar after an astonishing 9% loss materialized over just the last four weeks. Gold (/GC) has also largely been abandoned by investors with the renewed risk appetite prompting accelerated liquidation to close the precious metal at the lowest level since July of 2010.
10 Year Treasury Bond rates closed the week at 2.34% as traders focused on re-allocating assets into more risk. Yields may be poised to rise over the foreseeable future as the Federal Reserve hints at the desire to return to more normalized rates to curb against inflationary concerns with the renewed assurance of a strengthening economy taking shape.
The upcoming week will offer valuable insight into the expanding labor markets with multiple employment figures slated for release. Friday’s monthly unemployment component will be the most highly anticipated with a consensus forecast of 5.9%. Earnings will also continue to grab headlines as several noteworthy companies have yet to report and will likely dictate sentiment over the near-term based on results. The biggest question remaining is if investors will continue the euphoric buying frenzy into the final quarter of the year which over the last few weeks quickly erased losses approaching dreaded correction territory.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 2.7% last week and momentum has been strong over the last two weeks. Despite the optimism, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower this morning after the market's huge rally last week. Corporate results during the current earnings season have been better than expected, albeit on another round of lowered expectations, and recently released economic data has helped solidify the market’s move. Mid-term elections could throw a potential wrench into the rally as outcomes may change the majority weight of Congress. Volatility fell only modestly on Friday but the trend is still lower as stocks rally back near all-time highs. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at the $14 level and support continues to be near $12.
Treasuries are mostly higher as the ‘Risk-on’ trade may take a bit of a breather today. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.31% but the trend is still higher. Asian bonds also rallied, while action in the Euro-zone has been less bullish. Global equities are lower after disappointing PMI data (excluding the U.K. and Switzerland) and some corporate earnings misses. The U.S. dollar has continued to rise and the Yen is taking another hit. U.S. markets should settle down a bit now as they face a big week of data, culminating with Friday's employment report. Today's slate includes the Markit PMI for October, the October ISM, September construction spending, and October vehicle sales. President Obama is also slated to meet with Fed Chair Yellen.
Stock Stories:
Hebalife (HLF) –Placebo? – The alleged Pyramid-Scheme Company is set to report earnings today after the close. The option market is pricing in a 14% one standard deviation move into the event as lawsuits and activist investor’s battle continues. The shares are up slightly ahead of the bell and last quarter the company stock was hit pretty hard on slowing growth.
Major Economic Reports:
October Vehicle Sales
8:30 am CT – Fed’s Evan’s Speaks
8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index
9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing Report
9:00 am CT – Construction Spending
11:40 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Monday – 11/3:
Before Market: ARNA, CNA, HNT, L, SOHU, VMC
After Market: CKP, HLF, MRO, NTRI, THC, VNO
Tuesday – 11/4:
Before Market: AKS, BABA, BKW, CVS, DISH, EL, IP, KORS, MWW, ODP, PCLN, RRGB, RGS, VLO, VSI, ZBRA
The Massive rally showed some cracks yesterday as stocks finished the session mixed. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower this morning after the S&P 500 Index (SPX, SPY) and Dow Industrials (DIA, $DJI) hit new all-time highs yesterday morning. Focus will be on the mid-term elections today. Republicans hope to win back the Senate which has been controlled by the Democrats under President Obama, resulting in a stalemate on many issues in Washington. Volatility rose in stocks yesterday despite the recent move higher. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 5% despite the bullish tone by many money managers, analysts and investment firms into the holiday season. Historically we see stocks rise in the all-important fourth quarter and this shopping season is supposed to out-perform the last five years.
Treasuries are sharply higher as risk appetite is waning this morning. The 10-year yield has dipped to 2.3% and downward pressure may be back as stocks failed at another all-time high. Japanese markets were sharply higher overnight but European markets are taking their cue from U.S. stocks and are modestly lower. Oil futures (/CL) are at multi-year lows as news hit that Saudi Arabia is cutting its prices to keep its market share. Although this is a built in tax break for consumers as energy prices fall, it could have negative effects for our economy as U.S. production is expansive. Today's U.S. numbers include September trade and factory orders. Other key data this week ahead of Friday's October employment report include the October ADP private employment survey (Wed), the October ISM Non-Manufacturing index and Q3 productivity.
Stock Stories:
Alibaba (BABA) –Massive Scale – The Chinese online retailer posted in-line EPS this morning and a slight beat on Revenue. The report showed that active buyers rose over 50% and mobile growth was above expectations. The option market was anticipating a move of 6% and the shares are up about 3% ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales
7:30 am CT – International Trade
9:00 am CT – Factory Orders
11:40 am CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks
Notable Earnings:
Tuesday – 11/4:
Before Market: AKS, BABA, BKW, CVS, DISH, EL, IP, KORS, MWW, ODP, PCLN, RRGB, RGS, VLO, VSI, ZBRA
After Market: CNQR, DVN, FANG, FEYE, AWAY, JMBA, MYGN, PZZA, PBPB, PRI, SCTY, TRP, ZU
Republicans have retaken control of the Senate after yesterday’s midterm elections. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading sharply higher as investors cheer the political swing. The win may not mean much as far as changes are concerned but the shift in power is being viewed as an end of President Obama's policies. We’ve seen many historical studies that point to higher equities after elections so optimism is high for U.S. markets. Investors will now be turning their attention to Friday’s jobs report. Today they will examine the ADP employment change report in an effort to estimate the number of jobs created in October. Analysts are predicting that 220K net new jobs were added last month. Volatility rose yesterday as stocks took a break from their rally. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is close to $15 but will fall today if stocks remain in positive territory.
Risk appetite is picking up on the back of a sweeping Republican victory in the mid-term elections. And the election outcome overshadowed weaker European data and sent their markets higher. Historic studies show that fourth quarters of midterm election years have produced an average Wall Street gain of 8% in the last 65 years. Although past performance has no bearing on future moves, the Bulls will point to this for gains into the end of the year. Traders will look to today's data on the October ADP private employment result, the PMI and the October ISM Non-Manufacturing index while awaiting the October employment report on Friday. Oil prices (/CL) are relatively flat and will also be monitored closely by markets.
Stock Stories:
Tesla (TSLA) –motoring – The electric auto-maker reports earnings after the close today. The option market is anticipating a move of 8% into the quarterly report and the stock float is small, which could potentially move the stock violently. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.
Major Economic Reports:
6:00 am CT – Mortgage Applications
7:15 am CT – ADP Employment Report
8:15 am CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks
8:30 am CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks
8:45 am CT – PMI Services index
9:00 am CT – Non-Manufacturing PMI
9:00 am CT –Fed’s Rosengren Speaks
9:30 pm CT – Crude Oil Inventories
Notable Earnings:
Wednesday – 11/5:
Before Market: CTSH, EE, DAVE, LVLT, MDLZ, NUS
After Market: CBS, CF, MDR, MCP, MUSA, NDLS, PRU, QCOM, SKUL, SUN, TSRO, TSLA, TXTR, WFR, Z
The S&P 500 benchmark Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high yesterday but we are seeing some early pressure today. U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower the day after mid-term elections sent stocks higher. Despite the overall gains in stocks, the tech sector (QQQ) hit some bumps yesterday as some big names sold off. As stocks hit new highs, we could see some profit-taking in names that have out-performed. Option volatility fell again Wednesday on the modest rise in stocks. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is near the $14 level but is trending lower towrds its multi-year support price of $12.
Treasuries were subdued into this morning’s Bank of England (BoE) and European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decisions. They both made no changes to their rate policy, but the upcoming press conference (7:30 am CT) may provide further clarity this morning. The market may be looking for future clues on easing down the road but communication has been light from the ECB. Despite higher equities, Bond prices are still elevated as appetite for some protection is still present. Japan fell slightly today after rising 10% over the last five trading sessions on the back of increased quantitative easing. The action by Japan has put additional pressure on the ECB to expand their monetary stimulus for an ailing economic environment. In the U.S., tomorrow’s jobs data should show continued steady growth in hiring as the unemployment rate hovers below 6%.
Stock Stories:
Tesla (TSLA) –motoring – The electric auto-maker reported earnings after the close yesterday and the company beat on EPS and Revenue. Will lower gas prices hurt future sales as oil prices continue to drop? The company lowered guidance on the number of future sales but the stock is still up 5% ahead of the opening bell.
Qualcomm (QCOM) – Chipped off – The chip-maker posted a miserable earnings report as sales and earnings were weak. The company also lowered guidance for FY15 as several items are hanging over the tech firm. The stock is reflecting the bad news and is down 5.5% in the pre-market.
After Market: ELON, ED, FSLR, JDSA, KOG, MNST, NVDA, ZNGA
Friday – 11/7:
Before Market: BAM, CTB, HUM, ICPT, STAY
After Market: N/A作者: 沁颍 时间: 2014-11-7 09:56
11/7/2014
The S&P 500 benchmark Index (SPX) settled at another all-time high yesterday and momentum continues to be up. This morning, U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat ahead of the October jobs data. Although the unemployment rate continues to drop, wage growth is lagging. If we see a surprise on wage growth, inflation could pick-up and possibly spook markets. Option volatility was relatively flat on Thursday but fear to the downside is waning just a couple of weeks after hitting yearly lows. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is below $14 level and should remain weak unless we see a negative catalyst.
Treasuries are lower again this morning after giving up more gain yesterday. The 10-year yield is slowly creeping higher as stocks rise and bond prices fall. Speculation from the ECB’s Drahgi yesterday pointed to an increase in stimulus soon. Aside from the jobs data today, the FOMC’s Yellen gives a speech on monetary policy in Paris at 9:15 am CT. Earnings season is winding down but there remains a few big names into next week. So far, over 70% of S&P 500 companies have beaten expectations into their quarterly results.
Stock Stories:
Disney (DIS) –Frozen – The entertainment giant posted in-line quarterly results. The company said growth remains strong but its cable operations were weaker than expected. The stock is down about 2% ahead of the opening bell.
