[转贴] Is He Who Hesitates Lost ? ZT

何鸿燊

Tuesday, Nov 23, 12:48, 1:06PM-C


Given the potential for an escalation of the current Korean conflict, it is very cliché-ish for those who offer investment advice to warn their readers that ‘Caution is Warranted’.  

Of course, caution is warranted.  Different degrees of caution are always warranted, but there is the opportunity to profit from these type of developments for those who can get a proper handle on the situation and respond decisively.  In these situations, there are two approaches that have their place in a trading mentality.   

One say’s that “He who hesitates, is lost”.  You could immediately infer that with seasonal traders leaning long into Thanksgiving,  the opportunity is there for a major swing in the opposite direction and one would be wise to flip longs and get short in the early stages of what could be a major change in tide.   

The second approach which also has its place at times is “Out of Chaos, Comes Opportunity’ and one should look for an opportunity to use the current panic to position one’s self long for an end of year rally once the dust settles.   

It is difficult to say which approach is warranted without having some insight into what South Korea and the world’s response will be to last night’s attack.   

My approach is to use instincts, try to avoid getting caught up in the herd mindset, and study the tape for insight.

Option Traders are of course buying puts today in a 3 standard deviation fashion.  It is early and given the circumstances, this can certainly persist for a few days as today’s put buying will simply put the ptclr10 back at normal levels.