[讨论] Libya crisis: what role do tribal loyalties play?

何鸿燊

By Mohamed Hussein
Education and urbanisation have weakened Libyans' tribal affiliations


During his speech on Libyan TV on Sunday, Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's son, Saif al-Islam, raised the spectre of civil war in Libya in the event of the anti-regime demonstrations continuing, with members of different tribes "killing each other in the streets".

But how much of this is real and how much is scaremongering? What role do Libyan tribes play in society and how much influence do tribal chiefs carry?

During Muammar Gaddafi's 42-year rule, Libya has made great strides socially and economically thanks to its vast oil income, but tribes and clans continue to be part of the demographic landscape.

Women in Libya are free to work and to dress as they like, subject to family constraints. Life expectancy is in the seventies. And per capita income - while not as high as could be expected given Libya's oil wealth and relatively small population of 6.5m - is estimated at $12,000 (£9,000), according to the World Bank.

Illiteracy has been almost wiped out, as has homelessness - a chronic problem in the pre-Gaddafi era, where corrugated iron shacks dotted many urban centres around the country.

Tribal identity
However, the tribalism which dogged Libyan society during the monarchy is still very much a reality.

While many see the continued existence of tribalism as an obstacle to social mobility, equal opportunity and the development of civil society, its significance politically is less clear-cut.

Many Libyans continue to identify themselves as belonging to a tribe.

Gaddafi conducts some business from his tent - as a way of showing he is in touch with his cultural roots
However, in reality tribal kinship has been on the wane due to the growth in education and urbanisation, which separated people from their traditional tribal areas and contributed to weakening their tribal affinity.

Col Gaddafi and his colleagues in the Free Unionist Officers had pledged to eliminate tribalism upon seizing power in 1969.

For the first ten years or so of his rule, tribal identification was officially frowned upon. During this time, Col Gaddafi could count on the support of most of the population.

His political credit was still high and in general, he had the backing of the army.

However, as his popularity diminished and as he began to fall out with his colleagues in the Free Unionist Officers corps - all but a handful of whom have now disappeared from public view - he relied increasingly on tribalism and tribal rivalry in order to consolidate his grip on power.

Tribalism and the armed forces
This has been most pronounced in the armed forces where each of the main tribes is represented.

Fostering rivalries among the various tribes in the army through selective patronage has not only strengthened his control over the military, but has also worked to draw attention away from Col Gaddafi and his regime.

Nowadays, tribal rivalries are evident within the armed forces, where Mr Gaddafi's own tribe, the Qadhadfa, are pitted against Magariha - the tribe of the Lockerbie bomber, Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi - which are close to the Warfalla tribe, said to number one million people.

In turn, the Warfalla are close to Al-Zintan who hail from the town of Zintan, 75 miles south of Tripoli - one of the first towns in western Libya to join the present revolt against Mr Gaddafi.

Among the wider population, the importance of tribes and tribal chiefs should not be exaggerated.


To be sure, tribal affiliation can play an important role in securing employment and public services, in much the same way as the "old school tie" and the Oxbridge networks are believed by some people to influence employment and career prospects in the UK.

But in terms of political power, tribes are of limited significance, with many of the pillars of the Gaddafi regime, such as the revolutionary committees and the security services, consisting of people of different tribal affiliations.

Tribal chiefs
The influence of tribal chiefs also should not be overestimated. In the final analysis, people take notice of what tribal chiefs say only if it suits them.

Even in resolving family disputes - an important function of tribal chiefs - the influence of the head of the tribe is limited.

So, what significance ought to be attached to Saif al-Islam Gaddafi's warning of war between Libya's tribes in the event of the regime falling, or to the heads of Libyan tribes reportedly declaring support for the anti-regime protesters, as the head of the Warfalla tribe appears to have done?

And how seriously should we take the eastern Al-Zuwayya tribe's threat to cut off oil exports, as has been reported?

The short answer is that the prospect of civil war will become real only if the regime chooses to fight to the end and continues to remain indifferent to civilian casualties, as it has been doing over the past few days.

In that event, the fight will be between the regime and its supporters on the one hand, and the anti-regime forces on the other, irrespective of tribal affiliation.

As far as the declarations by the tribal chiefs are concerned, the significance of these in terms of raw power - the balance of forces on the ground - is very little.

The fact is that oil workers, members of the armed forces and employees of other state structures with tribal affiliations will make their own decisions, irrespective of whatever the tribal chief says.

However, as far as the morale of the regime and its supporters is concerned, declarations by tribal chiefs are important - in the public's perception, these could give the impression that power is slipping from the regime and further erode the barrier of fear that has guaranteed the absence of visible opposition to Col Gaddafi for so long.

何鸿燊

才六百五十万人，还没有三国时中国的人口多， 能杀出血流成河？

何鸿燊

Libya's Moammar Gadhafi is clinging to power despite a wave of opposition due in part to a legacy of decentralized authority and divided tribal politics that has been reinforced during the embattled strongman's four-decade rule, analysts told CNN Tuesday.

Gadhafi's grip on power nevertheless appears to be weakening, a fact illustrated by the recent defections of a number of prominent Libyan diplomatic officials. Libya's ambassador to the United States and deputy ambassador to the United Nations are among those now pushing for Gadhafi to step aside.

In eastern Libya, groups of armed people in civilian clothing have been guarding the streets and appear to be in firm control. Two Libyan fighter pilots defected to Malta with their jets on Monday rather than follow orders to bomb their fellow citizens.

But Gadhafi has been able to carry through on a brutal crackdown resulting in the apparent deaths of hundreds of Libyans. He pledged Tuesday to die "a martyr" before voluntarily relinquishing power.

Opposition to Gadhafi is hampered by the fact that Libya's sense of national identity is "very weak," said Robert Danin, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Tribal loyalty in the sparsely populated North African country comes first -- a fact which makes it extremely tough for Gadhafi's opponents to present a unified front.

For years, Gadhafi has effectively played different tribes against each another while using Libyan oil wealth to generate patronage and buy off potential opponents, Danin said. A resulting decentralized power structure beneath the very top levels of the Libyan government has made it easier for the longtime leader to survive in the face of a growing push for change.

To the extent that Gadhafi has empowered others in his regime, he has placed his trust in a few key members of his own ethnic group, according to Jennifer Cooke, head of the Africa program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Using tools of co-option and coercion, he effectively shifted power away from the city of Benghazi and the eastern portion of the country -- traditional bases of opposition to his rule.

Recently, Gadhafi further bolstered his power by bringing in mercenaries from neighboring countries such as Sudan and Chad. Libya's armed forces remain relatively weak by design, Danin noted. Gadhafi has worked over the years to prevent the creation of a military that could become unified in opposition to him, a development that contributed to the overthrow of the Egyptian and Tunisian governments.

"This has been an absolute rule," Danin told CNN. "There have been no countervailing institutions." Egypt, in contrast to Libya, had at least "some organized political opposition, some freedom of the press, and some freedom of association," traditions which proved critical in the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.

Gadhafi, much like his counterparts in Iran, has also not hesitated to use brutal force when necessary. He has shown "no reservations about bombing people into submission," Cooke noted.

Adding to the hurdles faced by would-be reformers: Tripoli's lack of a strong tradition of vibrant intellectual discourse and dissent. "He's been very successful in tamping down any potential opposition from an intellectual class," Cooke said.

And while Libya has a wealthy business community, "there's fear to speak out on the issues," she added.

Can Gadhafi survive the winds of change?

If he falls, Cooke asserted, it will likely be due to opposition from the military's middle ranks -- an officer corps that has been subjected to repeated purges in the past.

While the purges have helped Gadhafi maintain his hold on power over the years, they haven't made him very popular, she noted.

To the extent that the outside world can influence events in Libya, there will be a continued push for rapid change, Danin argued. Western European countries such as France, Germany and Italy are extremely dependent on Libyan oil and cannot tolerate instability there.

"If Libya descends into civil war with major disruptions in the oil market, this could really hit Europe in its pocketbook," he said.

"We're in uncharted waters now," Danin noted. "It seems that the regime is rotting from within. ... It's hard to see how he puts the genie back in the bottle. If he does, it'll require such enormous brutality that Libya will become a true international pariah."

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