[讨论] Bs Sure to Know When to Stop

snowrider

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/1670491.html

I jumped into the world of system trading since ... 1993 ? It's too long ago, and I cannot even remember when. I believed that it would be the key to succeed in the financial market. For many years, I programmed all kinds of idea and developed all kinds of systems by using the most sophisticated software at that time and back-testing against more than 30 years of data. I tried to find the optimal results of sharpe ratio, average return, maximum drawback, ...etc. It turned out (maybe I was not brilliant enough) none of my systems was able to survive in all situations. I quit system trading research after few years of failure.

For so many years passed by, I have tried all kinds of approaches to find the holy grail of the trading world. Do you really believe there exists a such silver bullet? I stopped losing money until I threw away all those approaches. Now my approach is no approach.

flyhigher

You are trading against human emotion. Unless you can precisely define and quantify human emotion, all system trading will fail eventually.

这个是我拍脑袋想出来的，我从来没有试过，就把这条路给否定了

snowrider

You are trading against human emotion. Unless you can precisely define and quantify human emotion, a ...
flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:43

Then you have saved many years of effort for not to waste time to prove that it did not work!

tfmegatron

这个是我拍脑袋想出来的，我从来没有试过，就把这条路给否定了flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:43

哈，这个厉害，偶认为，trading是人与人的博弈，就好比下棋，重要的在于掺和，乐在其中，你不参与决策了，就不好玩了。。。

flyhigher

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;sd=a&start=135

股市就像非洲草原，上面一群一群的牛羊，华尔街看似高深，其实也没什么了不起，那些Fund都是一个一个Herd，它的行为也是Herd行为，机构也是Herd，只有土地，空气和阳光是永恒的

我要赚钱，只需要看天气，不需要看Herd的行为

snowrider

股市就像非洲草原，上面一群一群的牛羊，华尔街看似高深，其实也没什么了不起，那些Fund都是一个一个He ...
flyhigher 发表于 2011-7-7 22:49

Interesting analogy!

snowrider

"... 我要赚钱，只需要看天气，不需要看Herd的行为 ..."

But you forgot one thing, "非洲草原" has some predators that kill those herds for food.