If that is a correct assessment, then there may well be a payback period of lesser movement in stock prices to follow. 2015 might have been the beginning of that balancing out: Minus dividends, the S&P and every other index experienced minor negative returns last year. (If you take out four stocks — Google (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB) and Netflix (NFLX) — the Nasdaq Composite finished down 0.3 percent for the year.) It would not be unreasonable to expect subdued returns this year given that stocks are still richly priced by historic standards.