ychen222

http://www.market-harmonics.com/ ... rs_intelligence.htm

我一直不太看重此网站，因为听说他们调查的范围比较小，也许不如直接看CPC/CPCE图。
但这次可能他们对，而CPC/CPCE的总base提高了。

ychen222

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... t=47105&start=0

蓉儿早看出现在的第二腿，很成功。
现在就看之后的damoon和1000点如何了。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/swenlin041511.html

大回调会有，“next six-month period”？然后还要接着2年的牛市？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/vermeulen041811.html

“So going back to the US Dollar, I feel as though it has a little more downward motion left which will help get the SP500 to a new yearly high. Once the dollar rally starts, it will crush stock and commodity prices for several months.”

此文对美元和股市大商品的关系讲得很清楚，我支持他的美元还有最后一跌，股市还有一冲的看法。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/summers041911.html

"The Primary Dealers are:

Bank of America
Barclays Capital Inc.
BNP Paribas Securities Corp.
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Citigroup Global Markets Inc.
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC
Daiwa Securities America Inc.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Goldman, Sachs & Co.
HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.
J. P. Morgan Securities Inc.
Jefferies & Company Inc.
Mizuho Securities USA Inc.
Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated
Nomura Securities International Inc.
RBC Capital Markets
RBS Securities Inc.
UBS Securities LLC.

Of this group four banks in particular receive unprecedented favoritism of the US Federal Reserve. They are:

JP Morgan
Bank of America
Citibank
Goldman Sachs
"

传说里的大MM大概就指它们。

ychen222

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ;t=47305&hilit=

“(1)number 1 on my mind， 我最喜欢的trading week 是 the week after oe， 这两week的负相关近三年达到95%以上。上个礼拜oe week down，所以礼拜一，我很从容地抄底。这里面的内在原因，我想了几年还没整明白。
(2)gap up/down after mdd/mad
。。。”

“报告酽茗老师：　丁丁刚才在洗碗，　脑子里在琢磨这个问题。　

这个是不是和资金无关？　　而仅仅和position 的大小有关？　MM 在OE 前的一段时间里，　积累了一些　option，　也就是我们通常说的　OI. 　在OE 的时候，　股价给捣鼓到一定的价位，　这样　mm 就可以用最小的代价去关掉那些　OPTION.。　　而为了捣鼓到那个价位，　mm 的手段只有股票，　或长或短。　

这样他的手头就积累了一些股票头寸。　这些头寸可能超过了他们通常的仓位，　这样他们就要关掉一些。　LONG --> SELL, SHORT --> COVER,　可是他不能搞的太急，　股价跳的厉害，　加大成本。　

所以，　我猜，　mm 为了卖个好价，过了OE, 　更可能要把股价顺着OE 的方向再拉一点，　再　通过几天的时间，　关掉手里的一些股票头寸。”

今年2，3，4月份看来符合此规律。

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

从现在美元跌，油金银大涨的样子看，FED的宽松政策会维持。
铜和天朝的A股显弱势，难道人民币要大升？

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=2　

2/27贴和4/5贴

A股和铜据说领先美股，但它们看起来象是朝下走。
美股的好日子也不多啦？

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/ciovacco042611.html

“Stocks, Dollar, and VIX Not Anticipating Negative Reaction to Fed”

跟QE1结束时候不同啦？

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=2

"有人问道美元贬值的问题，Ben说，Fed现在是要搞活经济，经济好了，美元就上来了，言外之意，Fed不会去主动保护美元，那个是Treasury的事，这个和Ben一贯的立场相符

输出通货膨胀，在力所能及的范围内，会尽量地搞。货币币值的调整，将来恐怕要靠在欧元背后捅刀子，或者发动局部战争来解决了

现在不妨大胆预言一下， 今年下半年希腊的债务，Default的可能很大，到时候会狠狠的杀，现在先把猪养肥。希腊目前想Extend，如果到时欧元居高不下，美国会想尽办法不许它Extend"

"目前实体经济还没有完全恢复，房价依然低迷，Ben认为在Commodity市场形成的Bubble，在调控通货膨胀的时候会予以打击，比以前房地产的Bubble要容易控制，因此不Care

通货膨胀的输出是必要的，作为变相的贸易战，Ben认为他根本没有必要考虑其他国家的通货膨涨，凡是通货膨胀厉害的国家，都可以用其币值低估来搪塞过去"

flyhigher 满有见地的。

ychen222

老陈啊，还是把花在读这些垃圾文章上的时间来陪陪孩子吧。。
大傻 发表于 2011-4-28 19:17

我一般比老婆孩子早起，在他们还在睡觉的时候花10分钟左右读读各种垃圾，觉得还算表面光鲜的就记一笔。
其他的时间当然不敢这样浪费。

ychen222

胡同/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=119113&extra=page%3D1&page=1

“你最好早做准备。。。”

据说不确定对股市伤害比较大。


下周我旅行，可能不能发贴。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones050211.html

“While several articles have been proffered by authors I respect deeply, they have not offered a means to determine when the Dollar has bottomed. While nothing is full proof, the longer term SPX chart may be a guide as to when the U.S. Dollar will begin to bottom. The SPX weekly chart shown below illustrates the long term ascending channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in for some time.

My "educated guess" as to when the Dollar will begin to bottom will likely coincide with a test of the ascending trend line. In previous articles, I opined that I thought we would see the S&P 500 rally and we are in that process now. My guess is that about the time the S&P 500 tests the rising channel, we will see the U.S. Dollar begin to bottom.”

我支持此预测。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s41134367]&disp=O

记得4月底时候看月图BB上轨还在2870附近，一到5月就变成2949了。
仅从这一点看，中期顶应该能冲到2949，甚至3000也未必不可能。

ychen222

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

在新一期“Muddle Through, or Crisis?”里John Mauldin说：

“I think the crucial point will be reached in late 2013. If the bond market sees a serious move to control the deficit, I think they let us “skate.” Then we Muddle Through. But if not, I think we begin to see some real push-back on rates then.

Why so early? Because bond investors are going to be watching the slow-motion train wreck that is happening in Europe and especially Japan. It is one thing for Greece to default (which they will in one form or another, with lots of rumors flying this morning), yet another for Japan to do so. Japan is big and makes a difference. Japan could start to go as early as the middle of 2013. As I have said, Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. Whenever this happens, 2013 or a year or so later, it is going to spook the bond market. The normal indulgence that a superpower and reserve-currency country would be accorded will become much more strained. It will seemingly happen overnight. Think Lehman Brothers on steroids.”

这样看来，大危机可能发生在2013年。那么经过今年夏季的大回调后，从秋后开始到明年一整年，一个不错的大牛市可期。