ychen222

显然，中期牛将使得实战一破产。
虽然眼下我看不清楚，但我相信下周末时候中期牛还是中期熊会有一个答案（关键在于此波顶的位置是否超出1645较多...）。

ychen222

再看了一下RUT，其呈现出明显的SETUP，若设中位在985，目标是1028。（985-942=43；985+43=1028）

ychen222

SPX相对来说中位很难划，若设为1615/1630/1645，目标就是1670/1700/1730。
所以若认同如此的SETUP，不妨直接做RUT。

ychen222

1645已经被有效突破。
当前我看好SPX/RUT去1665/1028，然后回调回1625/995。

ychen222

本周发贴我提到“市场做线多数情况下是设置反向SETUP，而不是当前的正向SETUP。（当然当前正向SETUP也很可能，所以不能一开始就否定之。）
所谓反向SETUP就是说市场虽然当前是涨，当前在做线，但此线其实是做后一步跌势的中线，而不是当前涨势的中线。”

再解释一遍，一般情况下，中线是先期做的（即反向SETUP），做完中线以后才开始完整的波动，左V搞出一个假动作，然后反向突破中线出真动作。开始说的战例一二三四全是这样。
有个别时候，在前期准备不足时，市场最先作第一腿，然后中位，再走第二腿（即正向SETUP）。

这次从1560涨上来就属于正向SETUP，前期1615没有充分准备，从1560到1615时第一腿，从1615到1670算已经完成了第二腿。

猜测中期牛的第二波涨则是按反向SETUP画的，第一步是做中线（比如说1680），然后左V假动作跌到1625，最后是直至1735的主波。

ychen222

虽然市场so far的走法支持中期牛，但毕竟要看到本次调整幅度是很小的，相对来说能支持的牛势也小。而且从更大的范围看，是否市场依然处于头部也很难说。

这几天看到有人把现在的走势跟2007年比较，有点意思。
见图，当前的1560相当于2007年的1370，三个紫圈各自对应，2007年那次新高以后牛牛就game over啦。

ychen222

股市到底有没有第二波（1625-1735），从下一步回调走法上还是有可能看出线索的。

见图，若是市场在1680盘较长的时间，跌向1625很急促，又缓涨回来，第二波（1625-1735）就有希望。
若下一步是缓跌向1625，牛牛就危险了。

另外任何情况下1615不能破，破1615就意味着变成中期熊势。

ychen222

In next Monday/Tuesday, SPX will reach 1700, RUT will reach 1054.
I wonder this could be a major top for stock. If true, the ideal target for SPX/RUT would be 1420/830 (1700-1560=140; 1560-140=1420.  1054-942=112; 942-112=830).
The bottom would happen during late August or September.

ychen222

FED might play a major role in this game. We know that next 2 FED meetings will be 7/30-31 and 9/17-18.  7/30-31 meeting might be the trigger for SPX/RUT to break down 1600/970. And 9/17-18 meeting might be the time for FED to begin new QE.  So the bottom 1420/830 should happen before 9/17-18.

Right now, SPX/RUT 1640/990 are forming lines. I couldn't help thinking about 1420 -> 1640 -> 1860/830 -> 990 ->1150 (thanks for 9/17-18 FED would declare new QE)

During the rest of July, SPX/RUT should emphasize 1640/990 further, until 7/30-31 FED meeting.

ychen222

FED might play a major role in this game. We know that next 2 FED meetings will be 7/30-31 and 9/17- ...
ychen222 发表于 2013-7-21 11:39

Please read this:
“The Federal Reserve’s proposed timetable for tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is not set in stone, Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday in fairly dovish prepared remarks to a Congressional panel. “I emphasize that, because our asset purchases depend on economic and financial developments, they are by no means on a preset course,” Bernanke said in remarks prepared for delivery to House Financial Services Committee.”

Think about it, if everything were good, why did the hell Ben emphasize "not set"/"no ... present course" at all?
The true story is that FED will try to taper QE3 (in 7/30-31 meeting).  Later the stock market crash will give Ben excuse (in 9/17-18 meeting) to reverse the tapering.

Or say this, my understanding is that Ben said "会哭的孩子有糖吃", not "都有糖吃, 不管是谁".

ychen222

FED might play a major role in this game. We know that next 2 FED meetings will be 7/30-31 and 9/17- ...
ychen222 发表于 2013-7-21 11:39

Thinking about 1420 -> 1640 -> 1860 further, I feel that 1640 is relatively weak currently. It's good to hover around 1640( or even it could be 1650/1660) for a while.
So it's also possible that the crash to 1420 would happen during September. In July/August, SPX would stay at 1640-1660 area.

ychen222

“It could stay in such a small range for more than a month?”
lululun 发表于 2013-7-22 06:32

In order to prepare future 1420 -> 1860/1900, it would be reasonable to hove around 1640-1660 for months in advance. This is the 反向SETUP.
Crash to 1420 in August is also possible. This is the 正向SETUP, which means that after 1420,  the market would stay 1640-1660 for months before moving to 1860/1900.

BTW，如果我对FED的估计（先减QE3，然后恢复QE3或搞新QE）正确，那么金银6月底时候应该还不是大底，等FED减QE3时候金银才出大底，然后FED搞新QE时候金银正式起飞。

ychen222

上周的走法实质上否定了近期迅速跌向1420的可能，已知7月里SPX限于1600-1700，8月里看来继续限于1600-1700。通过5678四个月在1600-1700（6月里有短暂时间跌出1600)盘整，为未来1400涨向1900做中线（正中位置时1650，上下界是1700/1600）。
所以我目前看好的SPX的大走势是，8月继续限于1600-1700，9/10月时候大跌到1420-1400，之后大涨到1900到2014年春，（然后可能从1900大跌一半到950，950发生在2015年）。
促成9/10月跌到1400的事件猜想是国会国债上限之争。大涨到1900需要FED继续QE来点火。（而从1900跌一半到950需要下一任FED主席停QE来配合。）

对我来说，近期需要关注的是SPX是否能突破1700很多，因为在以上猜测里我把1700作为1650中位的上界，1710附近应该就是极限了，若SPX再高就会迫使我重新思考大走势。

关于跌到1420，看图，其实当前的走法可以参考2007和2011年的走法。在2007年春，SPX测过一次1370，2011年的3月，SPX也是先期测一下1250，这相当于今年6月的1560。2007和2011年那2次都是出新高，然后再反测1370/1250，再反弹（2007年甚至这时出新高），但最终还是跌下反弹高度2倍。所以这次若8月下旬时候跌回1560也不意外，9月初再反弹回1680-1700也无不可，但9/10月跌向1420势不可挡，证据就是3/4月SPX盘于1550-1560先期形成中线，6月探测1560，1560/1550正好是1420/1400至1700的中位。

ychen222

(I can use my desktop computer at home to input Chinese. But my current company notebook only allows me to input English. So now I have to to switch to English input...)

Last Friday, we saw that the major stock indexes need to synchronize before a major movement. (In Friday's case, SPX needed a new low in order for it to rally to 1700.)  

SPX down to 1420-1400 is a major movement. in http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-242155-1-2.html I said RUT's 1560 was ready to 850 (middle point 955) .
Now let us see NDX and INDU.

NDX's 3091 is ready (actually too much) to 1650. No need for new high.
However, INDU's 15600 does not seem to be enough, if 14500 is the middle point, and 13200 is the target. It's good for INDU to have new high around 15800.
So if playing this rally in next a few days, INDU might be a better candidate.

ychen222

During SPX跌到1420/国会国债上限之争,  国债 and Gold should have down pressure.  国债 and Gold could have bottom in September/October, then they would rally following the stocks.  

Although SPX would make new high 1900 in 2014, I doubt  国债 and Gold would be able to make new high.   下一任FED主席停QE would beat down stocks, 国债 and Gold all together.

See the charts, I guess 10y notes/Gold would bottom about 120/1000 during September/October. In 2014 spring rally, I am afraid that they could not to break 130/1600 at all. In near term, 10y notes and Gold do have a little up room till 129/1380.