沁颍

June 22, 2014 Weekend Update

Equities were once again boosted by loose monetary policy. Weak housing data and mixed jobs data are also being offset by stronger than expected Manufacturing sector. The push into riskier assets such as stocks continues to be the Fed’s focus even as economic growth is showing signs of sustainability on its own. M&A activity is also boosting equities as companies reach for growth anywhere they can. Overall, favorable economic news (including Fed news) outweighed worries about the Ukraine and Iraq. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.4% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished the week up 1.0%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose 1.3% and the small caps (RUT) led the rally and finished the week up 2.2%.



Every downturn in option Volatility this week saw a bounce higher but eventually continued its consolidation lower. We have not seen the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) at these levels since 2007 just before the economic collapse.  While many have been calling for a stock market correction, the ‘Fear Gauge’ continues to defy its critics and show little downside risk. There is plenty of economic data to move markets this week and there was more negative news out of Russia and the Ukraine this weekend. Watch today’s 5 pm CT open of S&P 500 futures (/ES) for direction into Monday.



Treasury yields were essentially unchanged this past week although there were a few mild daily swings. Higher than expected inflation data on Tuesday (CPI) sent Bonds higher and yields lower but the Fed once again took care of this on its interest rate decision on Wednesday. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) despite the turmoil in Iraq. High Crude prices will eventually negatively affect consumer spending but so far has not done so.



Housing has been sputtering in recent months and the focus is on this sector. Home prices have been decelerating and updates this week will stand out along with existing and new home sales. Also, manufacturing has shown new signs of life and the durables report will confirm or not whether strength is national. Finally, the highlight for the consumer sector is the personal income report. Although earnings season is just about over, there are a few key reports due this week including reports from Walgreens (WAG), General Mills (GIS) and Nike (NKE).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  MU, SONC



Tuesday: APOG, WAG



Wednesday: APOL, BBBY, BKS, CCL, GIS, LEN, LNN, MON



Thursday: CAN, CAG, MKC, NKE, WGO



Friday: FINL, KBH



Economic Releases (6/23-6/27):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Cadse/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results



                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

                     

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

沁颍

6/23/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading relatively flat to start the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI)  is close to 17,000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 2,000, but both may have some resistance at these levels. Inflation is noticeably on the rise in the U.K., U.S., Canada, and Japan. Though special factors can account for some of the recent strength, the markets have not dismissed the run up as "noise" as Fed Chair Yellen did in her press conference. This debate won't be settled anytime soon and it will take many months before some clarity becomes evident.  Option volatility continues to weaken and is showing no signs of fear. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and it will take a significant catalyst to gain any upside traction.



Treasuries are a sharply higher with the 30-year bond out-performing. The 10-year yield has dipped back under 2.60%. Weakness in Eurozone manufacturing PMIs offset gains to the Chinese and Japanese readings, which boosted European debt markets while equities are slightly lower. Additionally supporting Euro-zone bonds were hints from ECB's Draghi that rates could stay low until at least 2016. Today's U.S. calendar has May existing home sales, the manufacturing PMI, and the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. The price of oil (/CL) continues to climb as the violence in Iraq escalates, which could negatively affect equities.



Stock Stories:

Lululemon  (LULU) – See through –The athletic apparel maker’s founder is constructing a strategy to gain more control at the company. He is in discussions with investment banks for either a Proxy fight for more Board seats or finding a partner for a buyout. The shares are up 7% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

8:45 am CT – PMI Mfg. Index Flash

9:00 am CT – Existing Home Sales



Notable Earnings:   

Monday - 6/23:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:   MU, SONC



Tuesday – 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:  APOG

沁颍

6/24/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading slightly lower ahead of a full day of economic reports and Fed-speak. Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) fall for the first time in 7 sessions, although it was only minimal. The major indices have not had a 1% move or greater in either direction for almost two months as complacency and consolidation have set in. Although there is plenty of market-moving news on tap, we could grind to new highs into the 4thof July weekend.  High oil prices (/CL) are putting pressure on stocks and may be the only bump in the road for equities to hit new upside milestones.



Treasuries are higher again this morning.  Bonds rose sharply for most of Monday’s session before finishing the session relatively flat. The 10-year yield had dipped back under 2.60% before firming into the close. Shares in Asia were higher led by markets in China.  European stocks were minimally lower after comments from Bank of England's Carney that rate increases will be "limited and gradual" in parliamentary testimony, and worries over reports ISIS has taken control of the largest oil refinery in Iraq. There's plenty of data on tap today including the 2-year Note auction, May new home sales, June consumer confidence and the April Case Shiller and FHFA home price indexes. There is also data from the June Richmond Fed, weekly chain store sales and Fed-speak today.



Stock Stories:

Walgreen Co.  (WAG) – Drugged –The retailer/Pharmacy chain posted weaker than expected quarterly results this morning. The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS but stated that synergies between itself and Alliance Boots in Europe are accelerating. The company unfortunately alsosays experiencing increased pressure on pharmacy gross profit margins.The shares are down 2% ahead of the opening bell and the option market had priced in a move of 3.5%.



Major Economic Reports:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – up 2% for the week

7:05 am CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

7:30 am CT– FHFA House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case/Shiller HPI

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:00 am CT– Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Dudley Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday - 6/24:

Before Market:  WAG

After Market:   APOG



Wednesday – 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:  BBBY, FUL

沁颍

6/25/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading flat this morning ahead of a slew of economic data.  Yesterday saw the S&P 500 Index (SPX) reverse in the afternoon after hitting all-time highs again in the morning. The slide was quick and not supported by any significant news but may be signaling a near-term top in stocks. The markets are finally taking the turmoil in Iraq to task and there may be some profit taking into the end of the fiscal quarter. Option volatility spike higher on the equity sell-off yesterday as investors scrambled to buy protection from extremely low levels.  The CBOE volatility Index rose 10% and is now back above $12.  Despite the rally, any consolidation or rise in stocks would most likely send the ‘Fear Gauge back to previous levels very quickly.



Treasuries are up slightly in tandem with gains in overseas bonds, as stocks remain weak. The 10-year yield has slipped modestly to 2.57% in light volume trading. The U.K. CBI retail sales survey dropped sharply which caused European bonds to rise. The markets then shrugged off the better than expected German consumer confidence data. Geopolitical risks out of Iraq and Ukraine are also keeping investors nervous. There's a lot on the U.S. docket today with the 5-year note auction, along with data on durable orders, revised Q1 GDP and the flash PMI services index. The MBA reported mortgage applications fell 1.0% in the week ended June 20.



Stock Stories:

General Mills (GIS) – No Prize in the box –The consumer goods maker posted worse than expected quarterly earnings this morning.  The company missed on top-line revenue and EPS and international sales continue to weaken. The shares are down 2.5% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Down 1% for the week

7:30 am CT – Durable Goods

7:30 am CT – Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

8:45 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday - 6/25:

Before Market:  APOL, BKS, GIS, MON, OMN

After Market:   BBBY, FUL



Thursday – 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:  NKE

沁颍

6/26/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are relatively flat in early trading. Investors will be watching jobless claims data, personal income and spending, and natural gas inventories today. The jobless claims data is expected to show that there were were 310K initial claims and 2.56M continuing claims last week. Personal income is expected to have risen 0.4% in May, while spending is also expected to have increased 0.4%. The Fed will be particularly watching the spending data as they need more clarity on the consumer during the recovery. Option volatility regressed again yesterday as stocks reversed higher once again.  The CBOE volatility Index needs a catalyst to pick up any upside expansion but we may not see that into the end of the quarter.



Bonds are also flat in tandem with U.S. equities. The 10-year yield has slipped this week and is now firmly under 2.6%. Asian shares were mostly higher led by Hong Kong which rose 1.5%.  European shares are slightly lower to flat ahead of the U.S. economic data. Yesterday’s worse than expected GDP data initially put pressure on stocks but the Bulls quickly bought the downturn and rallied into the close. Bad news is being met with buying as traders are ignoring the data. In corporate news, Barclays is being sued by the New York attorney general for its management of its dark pool trading program.



Stock Stories:

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) – Sold! –The retailer posted worse than expected quarterly earnings last night but only missed slightly.  The company saw slower same store sales numbers and analysts seem to think that forward guidance may be hard to achieve. Investors are speaking loudly as the shares are down 8% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Personal Income & Outlays

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT –Kansas City Fed Mfg. Index

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday - 6/26:

Before Market:  ACN, CAG, LEN, MKC, WGO

After Market:   NKE



Friday – 6/27:

Before Market:  FINL, KBH

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

6/27/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are drifting slightly lower this morning as the trading week comes to a conclusion.   Both the Dow and S&P 500 are also down fractionally for the week and have struggled to extend above all-time highs recorded just last week.   The Nasdaq 100 has been the outperformer as of late and continues to benefit from the return to several tech momentum names.   Traders will be eagerly watching to see if the markets will continue to see buying at any sign of weakness shortly after the open.



Market sentiment was rattled yesterday after a more hawkish tone was hinted from St. Louis Fed President Bullard on the eventual raising of interest rates.  Treasury yields have continued to drop near three-week lows after reports of slowing economic growth scared some investors back to the safety of bonds. The 10-year yield has dipped back to 2.51% as a result.



The CBOE Volatility index spiked briefly in yesterday’s session before closing near the low of 11.63. The index is still up over 7% for the week.  Commodities appear to be in check this morning with both Gold futures (/GC) and Oil futures (/CL) only trading marginally higher.  The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment number is the only piece of economic news today after mixed results from much of the week have left investors guessing on the current health of the ever recovering economy.



Stock Stories:

NIKE (NKE) – SWOOSH!! –The athletic apparel maker reported a solid quarterly result after the market close yesterday thanks to a strong lift from both North America and Europe.   The company is also benefiting from the positive momentum of the ongoing World Cup frenzy.  Shares are up 3% pre-market.  



Major Economic Reports:

8:55 am CT – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment



Notable Earnings:

Friday - 6/27:

Before Market: FINL, KBH

After Market: N/A



Monday – 6/30:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market: N/A

沁颍

June 29, 2014 Weekend Update

U.S. markets wrapped up the 2nd quarter on a positive note Friday afternoon as the S&P 500 gained another 3.9 points to finish at $1961. Some last minute quarterly shuffling helped to fuel markets higher throughout the session even after a shaky open.  The broad based index gained an additional 4.7% during the 2ndquarter which extends a 6thconsecutive quarterly improvement with the market still hovering just below all-time highs.  The strongest sector up to the mid-point of 2014 has been Utilities with the retail group lagging after never gaining traction from  the weather related shortfall earlier in the year.



Treasury rates ended the week just moderately above the 2.5% threshold for the 10 year after sliding to a month low earlier in the week off the heels of the weaker than expected GDP result .  Some hawkish dissention among the Federal Reserves may help to stabilize rates above this level with inflationary concerns rearing its head in various segments of the market.  Bond traders may experience an uptick in activity surrounding Chairman Yellen’s comments on Wednesday as markets gauge the landscape of an eventual rate hike.



The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains stagnant just above $11 with no catalyst able to reverse the current momentum lower so far this year.  Oil prices (/CL) briefly stabilized near $105 a barrel over the past few sessions after volatile trading pushed crude higher for much of June with the unraveling Iraq crisis being the main cause. Even with an abbreviated week ahead with Friday’s observance of the 4thof July, traders will still have plenty of market data to interpret during the next four sessions with Fed Chairman Yellen, trade balance, and monthly employment being the main focus.   Company earnings will be non-material until after the holiday when Alcoa will officially kick off yet another round the following week.



Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:



Monday: N/A

Tuesday: N/A

Wednesday: STZ, UNF

Thursday: ISCA

Friday: Market Holiday



Economic Releases (6/30-7/4):



Monday:

8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Tuesday:

7:00 am CT – Treasury Secretary Lew speaks

9:00 am CT – ISM Manufacturing PMI

9:00 am CT – Construction spending

9:00 am CT – Vehicle Sales (All Day Reporting)



Wednesday:

6:30 am CT – Challenger Job Cuts

7:15 am CT – ADP Non-Farm Payroll

9:00 am CT – Factory Orders

9:30 am CT – Crude Oil Inventories

10:00 am CT – FED Chairman Yellen Speaks



Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Monthly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –Trade Balance

9:00 am CT – Unemployment Rate

8:45 am CT– Final Services PMI

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories



Friday:

Market Holiday-No Data

沁颍

6/30/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are trading almost flat ahead of a condensed trading week.   Tomorrow will usher in the start of Q3 and may be the catalyst for more last-minute “window dressing” by institution investors during today’s session.  The big news over the weekend was the monumental settlement of the French Banking powerhouse BNP Paribas with U.S. Officials for $9 Billion after the bank admitted to conducting countless illicit transactions with prohibited countries.  European stocks are currently trading flat off the news with the FTSE300 at 1,371.



Gold Futures (/GC) are indicating some profit taking this morning as the precious metal is trading lower by .5% ahead of the bell.  Crude Oil (/CL) is also down by roughly the same margin to start the week.  Headlines in Iraq seem to be tapering slightly which may be contributing to the renewed weakness in both over the past few sessions.



Today’s Chicago PMI forecast will be looking for a reading of 63.2 at 8:45 Central.  This number is considered by many as a leading indicator for the overall economic health of businesses and their willingness to purchase additional inventory based on sentiment.  Home Sales will also be on display today with an expectation of a 1.4% increase at 9:00 Central.  Markets will be anxiously awaiting Wednesday’s speech from Chairman Yellen to better ascertain the Fed’s stance on the economic recovery and any hint to when the eventual hike of interest rates may occur.  Monthly Unemployment results on Thursday will also be pivotal if the markets expect to continue to propel the sustained rally into new highs.



Stock Stories:

GoPro (GPRO) – Adrenaline Rush! –The maker of custom mounted Hi-Def. Video components made popular by high adventure junkies continues to surge after last week’s IPO.  Shares are indicating a higher open in pre-market.



Major Economic Reports:



8:45 am CT – Chicago PMI

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales



Notable Earnings:



Monday - 6/30:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A



Tuesday – 7/1:

Before Market: N/A

After Market: N/A

沁颍

7/3/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are slightly above fair value as investors anxiously await the monthly jobs report. It'll be a short session today, with the major stock exchanges closing at 12 pm CT. Yesterday saw stocks set another upside record but the rally was somewhat subdued despite a positive surprise to the ADP jobs report. Analysts are predicting that the government’s non-farm payroll data increased 215K and the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.3%. If the nonfarm-payrolls report sharply outstrips expectations, it could spur speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than expected. This morning, the ECB left benchmark interest rates and deposit facility rates unchanged as expected.



Treasuries are little changed after a big sell-off on solid volume Wednesday. Concerns over inflation and an earlier interest rate hike had yields rising on the bond downturn. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.62% and could continue to rise if the jobs data comes in higher than expected. Challenger just reported announced layoffs which showed a 21.5k decline, down 20% year-over-year. Other data today includes June ISM services release and the May trade balance, along with weekly jobless claims, though their impact should be muted.  This is an abbreviated session with the markets closing early ahead of the July 4thholiday.



Stock Stories:

Amazon.com (AMZN) – Legally –U.S. regulators are accusing Amazon of charging users for additional services through registered credit cards, after an app is downloaded for free. This case is similar to the settled one by Apple (AAPL) which the company paid out over $30M. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT – Jobs Data

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT –International Trade

8:45 am CT– PMI Services Index

9:00 am CT – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

9:30 am CT– Natural Gas Inventories

Markets close at 12:00 pm CT

Markets closed on Friday



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/3:

Before Market:  ESI

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

July 6, 2014  Weekend Update

Stocks once again showed strength this past holiday-shortened week. The highlight of the week was Thursday’s Employment report which was above expectations and saw healthy growth. Higher than expected housing data did not boost equities to start the week but the major benchmark indices still rallied into record territory. Auto sales out-performed and manufacturing data is still trending higher. On Thursday, the last day of trading for the week, an unexpectedly strong jobs report for June sent stocks higher and the Dow ($DJI) over the 17,000 mark. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) was up 1.2% this past week while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) finished up 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) led the gains up 2% and the small caps (RUT) finished the week up 1.6%. All the major indices are up for the year led by the S&P and Nasdaq, which are both higher by over 7%.



Option Volatility reflected the bullish trend in stocks as it continued to weaken. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is under $11 and is at seven-year lows. A low interest rate environment and an accommodative stance by the Fed are providing the fuel for the move into riskier assets such as stocks. Economic data is relatively light this week so any downside catalyst may still be a ways off. For the second quarter, the recovery has regained strength across a variety of sectors. Clearly, the consumer and manufacturing sectors are gaining strength. However, construction and housing is uncertain. Second quarter GDP growth should be relatively strong but it has to make up for the weak first quarter numbers.



Treasury yields ended the week up somewhat strongly. After essentially no change Monday on little news, rates rose Tuesday on stronger than expected manufacturing data, auto sales and on increased belief the economic data are healthy enough for the Fed to nudge up its schedule for increases in policy rates. On Wednesday and Thursday, the jobs data affirmed the positive economic situation which once again had yields rising. It was a relatively quiet week for Oil Futures (/CL) but it did grind lower. The increased belief that internal strife in Iraq would not interrupt oil production produced a slide in crude prices.



With a relatively light schedule this week except for the TD Ameritrade IMX data, the focus is on the consumer. After this past week's favorable employment report for June, attention will be on whether other consumer sector indicators confirm the better jobs numbers. But there likely will be a good chance of pullback after recently strong numbers. Job openings were up notably in the latest report for April. Earnings season also kicks off this week, albeit in a quiet way.  Reports are due from Alcoa (AA) and Wells Fargo (WFC).


Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  N/A



Tuesday: AA, TCS, TZ



Wednesday: NG, RT, SYRG



Thursday: FDO, PGR



Friday: FAST, INFY, WFC



Economic Releases (7/7-7/11):

Monday:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

10:15 pm CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget

沁颍

7/7/2014

U.S. equity futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as investors return from the holiday weekend. The early weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Christine Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. On a positive note, China’s premier said his country’s economy is improving. There will be little else for investors to key in on today as little economic data is slated to be released, and the summer doldrums may be beginning to take hold. Earnings season kicks off this week but will be fully in focus next week as any improving corporate news could provide the next leg up for equities.



Treasuries are relatively flat after falling last week. Overseas news saw weaker than expected German production helped boost Treasuries. The 10-year yield is flat at 2.65% after retesting 2.5% just a week ago. Equities are lower on profit taking from record gains on Wall Street and the strongest rally in European exchanges since March. Today's calendar is thin with just the TD Ameritrade IMX data due.  Treasury supply will be a focal point this week as the market digests $61 B in Treasury auctions, starting tomorrow. The FOMC Minutes from the June 17, 18 policy meeting (Wednesday) will be of considerable interest too.  



Stock Stories:

Boeing (BA) – Derailed? –A train derailment in Montana sent three fuselages for its 737 jetliner tumbling down an embankment toward a river and damaged other plane parts. Analysts do not believe this will negatively affect the stock and the shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

11:30 am CT – TD Ameritrade IMX



Notable Earnings:   

Monday – 7/7:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  N/A



Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS

沁颍

7/8/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly lower open as the weakness from yesterday’s session looks set to continue today. Weak markets overseas and some potential profit taking had equities under pressure throughout Monday’s session. The weakness could have been triggered by statements by IMF head Lagarde that were seen as hints that the organization will cut its world GDP forecast. Volatility spiked on the downturn as traders bought options. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 10% but it was off extremely low levels.



U.S. Treasuries are up modestly this morning after solid gains yesterday. The ‘Risk-Off’ trade was prominent as investors switched on recent flows. The 10-year yield is down below 2.6% again and could be signaling a further demand for the safety of Bonds. Asian markets were mixed but European stocks once again are lower ahead of the U.S. open. Economic data is light today with only the JOTLS report of any significance. There is plenty of Fed-Speak to potentially roil markets and earnings season unofficially kicks off tonight with the release of quarterly results from Alcoa (AA).  



Stock Stories:

Facebook (FB) – Vidiot –Facebook updated its mobile video player with a new "suggested videos" feature that could encourage more video uploading to the site and opens up an advertising opportunity for sponsored video suggestions. The shares also received an analyst price target raise. The shares are flat ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:30 am CT – NFIB Small Business Optimism Index

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales – Up 1.7% for the week

9:00 am CT– JOLTS

12:00 pm CT – Fed’s Lacker Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 3-year Note Auction Results

12:45 pm CT – Fed’s Kocherlakota Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Tuesday – 7/8:

Before Market:  N/A

After Market:  AA, HTZ, TCS



Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT

沁颍

7/9/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open as markets try to break their two-day losing streak. Small caps (RUT, IWM) once again led the declines but tech and high-flyers also forced the sectors lower than the Blue Chip indices (SPY, DIA). Increasing hawkish comments from some Fed members will have all eyes on the FOMC minutes released today. Volatility spiked again as stocks were under more pressure on Tuesday. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has now risen 16% this week and hopefully we have seen the bottom in premium. We could see some give back today if stocks stay in positive territory.



Treasuries are modestly lower in light trading. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.57% but remains in a tight range. Many expect rates to rise sooner than expected but most have been dead wrong as bond prices remain elevated. There wasn't much data overseas but U.K. house prices declined 0.6% in June and China CPI slowed to 2.3% year-over-year. A watchful eye is being kept on the violence in the Middle East as turmoil has erupted once again in Gaza. Alcoa unofficially kicked off earnings season with a beat. There's not a lot on the economic docket today. The Treasury reopens $21 B in 10-year notes at auction. The main focus will be on the FOMC Minutes to the June 17, 18 policy meeting, which will be released this afternoon. The MBA report mortgage applications rebounded 1.9% in the week ended July 4 but the housing sector remains a question mark.



Stock Stories:

Alcoa (AA) –Tin –The aluminum giant posted better than expected quarterly results yesterday after the close. The company reiterated its global demand growth target of 7% and raised its 2014 estimate for North America transportation market. The shares are up slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications – Up 1.9%

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 10-year Note Auction Results

1:00 pm CT – FOMC Minutes



Notable Earnings:   

Wednesday – 7/9:

Before Market:  SYRG

After Market:  LFC, NG, RT



Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT

沁颍

7/10/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a sharply lower open as markets are under pressure from a few different angles. Investors are digesting yesterday’s FOMC minutes, dealing with a potential banking crisis in the Euro-Zone, turmoil in Gaza and corporate economic warnings. The parent of a key Portuguese Bank delayed short-term debt payments which has most major European banks under heavy pressure. The Fed plans to exit its bond buying program by October but keep interest lows. Recent positive economic and jobs data was not in yesterday’s FOMC minutes so hawkish comments were not as plentiful as many expected. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell only modestly yesterday as stocks were under pressure until the end of the day rally. We should see a sharp spike higher in the ‘Fear Gauge’ today if stocks remain in negative territory.



Treasuries are sharply higher this morning as investors reposition themselves with the ‘Risk-Off’ position. The 10-year yield is back down to the 2.5% level and may be under more pressure than expected. Besides the banking issues in Europe, poor economic news is also roiling markets. Italy’s industrial production unexpectedly fell 1.2% in May, the biggest decline since November 2012, and French production also surprised with a 1.7% drop, the largest fall in more than 18 months. Chinese Trade data also missed expectations to the downside. Economic data is light with just the Weekly Jobless Claims and Wholesale trade due today. There is more Fed-Speak on tap also but most focus will most likely be on overseas developments.  Earnings season begins in full-force tomorrow with the release of quarterly results from Wells Fargo (WFC).



Stock Stories:

Lumber Liquidators (LL) –Tin –The Company warned yesterday after the close that FY14 will be much lower than expected. They blamed significantly weaker consumer traffic as the housing sector continues to lag the economic recovery. The shares are down over 20% ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

9:00 am CT– Wholesale Trade

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

12:00 pm CT – 30-year Bond Auction Results

12:15 pm CT – Fed’s George Speaks

3:30 pm CT – Fed’s Fisher Speaks



Notable Earnings:   

Thursday – 7/10:

Before Market:  FDO, PGR

After Market:  CUDA, PSMT



Friday – 7/11:

Before Market:  FAST, INFY, WFC

After Market:  N/A

沁颍

7/11/2014

Stock futures (/ES) are pointing to a slightly higher open and try to reverse yesterday’s losses. Yesterday started out with heavy losses as most major benchmark indices were down over 1%.  The markets recovered to almost unchanged but fell late in the session on a myriad of troubling economic and geopolitical news.  There is no economic news today so markets will rely on overseas news and the quarterly results from banking giant Wells Fargo (WFC). The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose 8% on the declines and breached the $13 level for the first time in a month and a half. We should see a quick give back today in option volatility if stocks remain in positive territory.

Treasuries are little changed to modestly higher, alongside gains in most global bond markets. Fears over the Portuguese banking system eased off slightly to allow Euro-Zone markets to improve. The 10-year Note yield is trading just above the 2.5% level and remains at low levels as investors are still pouring into the safety of Bonds. U.S. equity futures are higher in tandem with gains in European markets while Asian stocks were mixed on little news overnight. There's little on today's U.S. calendar with just Fed-speak and the June Treasury budget report. Fed speakers include the hawkish Plosser and doves Lockhart and Evans.

Stock Stories:

Wells Fargo (WFC) –Interest -ing –The Banking giant posted in-line EPS with top-line revenue slightly better than expected.  The company’s CEO is optimistic about the bank’s future despite the firm relying on a less than stellar housing market. The shares are down slightly ahead of the opening bell.



Major Economic Reports:

10:15 pm CT – Fed’s Plosser Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

1:00 pm CT – Treasury Budget



Notable Earnings:   

Friday – 7/11:

Before Market:  FAST, INFY, WFC

After Market:  N/A



Monday – 7/14:

Before Market:  C, MTB

After Market:  PPHM, WTFC