Trinity

回复 73# oldhorse


    thanks!

Trinity

回复 104# oldhorse

great call!

Trinity

thanks!

Trinity

回复 120# oldhorse

Thank you for sharing your market viewpoints. It is very helpful.

You mentioned that you use "TZA to hedge". If you do not mind, I would be curious to know what portion of your fund is used to hedge.

I also like your viewpoint on QIHU. Thanks.

Trinity

回复 128# oldhorse

Thanks! I still have more than 80% long positions. I tried to use TZA to hedge before but did not work well in my hand (just not enough to cover downsize risk). Now, I am using ES to hedge my long position (short ES by daytrade).

Trinity

谢谢你的建议。SPY PUT hedge 或许可行（足够的杠杆）。自己还是对买option没有信心。不能把握入点。同时不知道怎么对付：time decay 和 跳空缺口。ES我也是瞎做。Hedge在主要的fibonacci retracement。有时也能碰上死耗子。

Independence day rally 去1970以上。真的希望这样。回测才24点。感觉会大一点但也没时间了（independece rally). 现没有hedge。害怕星期一或二会不会嗲一点。

Trinity

回复 134# aimei

我就做一回笨笨牛了。坐等T大大的2500 or 3000 世纪大顶。借T大大的话说“this is once in a lifetime multi decade bull mkt”。我可能会等 the difference between the longer treasury maturity rate and the shorter one is close to zero. Until then, I will not consider to exit my 401K.

Yes, 这年头啥都不和常规. 我也跟着瞎做。前几天出了一点点长期的，没回测又想冲进去但不知道进什么好. 或许进aimei大大说的金子或金矿了  or A 股？

Trinity

回复 138# oldhorse

If it reaches 1970, I would give a try to short ES (hedge my long).

"一升息就歇菜了", not always like that. It is still possible to go up at the same direction at the beginning.

Trinity

回复 138# oldhorse

Good call, 1970 reached.

It is still too strong. even out with short ES and retreat to next stop.

Trinity

回复 150# aimei

right now, I am heavily in real estates, energy, semi, healthcare and meterials/metal. Yesterday, energy and natural resources are in red even the market up that much.

I will consider to switch a little bit from real estates and energy to fiancial, retailing and Ａ股.

thanks!