oldhorse

we bounced off from here.
so my take is , tomorrow if we go down to 1912, we should go bottom fishing.
this is the near term bottom.

if breaking through 1912 and no bounce there , please prepare to brace great trouble ahead.

the strategy:
watch for 1912, if it is broken or flat, wait for the bounce, and bottom fish after you see the bounce.
if no bounce: buy inverse indexes to protect yourself or put or cash out.

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2014-8-5 22:46

oldhorse

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2014-8-6 00:08

we bounced off from here.
so my take is , tomorrow if we go down to 1912, we should go bottom fishi ...
oldhorse 发表于 2014-8-5 22:53

    we are from 200 line，1860

oldhorse

目前盘前看是破1912的节奏。
破了以后耐心等反弹，不要提前进市。

如果守不住，就得hedge或者跑吧。

oldhorse

回复  oldhorse

好的。昨天买了TZA做hedge，1912看看是卖还是留。
seafood 发表于 2014-8-6 08:54

    1900上来不 易，下去没什么障碍。关键看1912吧。
rut看1100，破了就是双顶play out。

oldhorse

we bounced off from here.
so my take is , tomorrow if we go down to 1912, we should go bottom fishi ...
oldhorse 发表于 2014-8-5 22:53

    我这个马前炮很响啊， 破了1912 后， right bounce back，特经典的教科书式反弹。
按这个操作都能赚钱啊！

oldhorse

we broke 100 day twice in feb and apr retrospectively, while feb is bit deeper and apr is shallower.
we never touch or even close to 200 day line.

we poked 1912 today and right bounced back from there, so now we are two days trying to break 100 days and overall market is still far from recovery.

I would say no danger yet as long as we stay above 1oo days line, but bears might come at large once it is broken.

so, stay alert and watch the line.

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2014-8-6 22:50

oldhorse

the market is trying break 1912 too many times, i feel that we are going to fall through this support today and roll over tomorrow towards 1900 and below.

oldhorse

the market is trying break 1912 too many times, i feel that we are going to fall through this suppor ...
oldhorse 发表于 2014-8-7 14:27

谢谢鲜花。
今天这个感觉还是对的，试多了就得出问题。
现在已经破了1912， 是否能象前两次一样回来或者move to 1860，还得看几天。

短期：
明天可能测试1900，如果到1900-1890 之间，可买入。 大盘已经oversold，短期必强力反弹，最迟下周初。

中期：倾向于大盘要测试200天线，虽然还得等几天确定。

长期：赌200天线后重回牛市。

oldhorse

回复  oldhorse

Ma Da Da,
Jack's analysis says there will be plenty of buyers at 1880. Not sure  ...
qzhou3 发表于 2014-8-7 22:37

1880是ta 支撑位。
撑不住就是1860.

oldhorse

谢谢， 很好的分析
黄金奇异果 发表于 2014-8-7 21:13

    谢谢。有人看，我就接着胡说了。

oldhorse

现在future已经低于1900，明天如果走到1900以下，买三倍指数，赌短期反弹。
this huy has been kept under 10 for a few days and about 2-3 days at 5.
to me, it presents a good chance of buying.



http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=SF_INV_FG

oldhorse

我的意思是根据我们已经到了extreme oversold 的情况， 明天抄底博几天后的反弹，比如周一，周二。
中期， 几个星期的样子，我在第一个贴里已经说了， 要去1860.

oldhorse

说白了，就是今天破了1912，就还没跌完，还得跌一次，可能还要去1860。
但是在这过程中会有反弹，我就是想抢这个反弹。
假设1900 open， 到1890 抄底，或者等1890 反弹回来到1895后再入手。

1880手支撑，1860是200天线。

oldhorse

明天1900开的时候可考虑买反指，或者盘前买反指， 一旦破了1900， 必会下探1890-1880，在此处卖掉反指。
然后等大盘反弹买入正指，没有反弹，就观望一下。

oldhorse

目前研究结果，牛市继续。
等周末再仔细看看。