Trinity

回复 120# oldhorse

Thank you for sharing your market viewpoints. It is very helpful.

You mentioned that you use "TZA to hedge". If you do not mind, I would be curious to know what portion of your fund is used to hedge.

I also like your viewpoint on QIHU. Thanks.

oldhorse

谢谢分享！
黄金奇异果 发表于 2014-6-26 22:08

    不客气，市场现在完全忽视了以严寒为借口的低gdp，实际就是把下一个高gdp priced in 了。
这带来的问题就是期望太高， 一旦下季度达不到预期， 很可怕。

黄金奇异果

谢谢分享！

oldhorse

7月份仍然看好2000,不过如果真到了的话， 大概会立即回头，一路跌到1900.

oldhorse

gdp soso 的话，也许会跌5-6%

oldhorse

今天又是fed 成员讲话，说要明年三月涨息，早市因此跌，好在有又起来了。
但现在的问题是如果3月份涨息， 倒推6个月应该是股市开跌的日子，那么就是最晚9月， 最早8月。
7月中下旬也许就提前开始了。

形势不妙，这不到一个月的功夫要时刻注意，要有一个exit plan，准备渐行渐退，伺机hedge。
但做空仍不成熟。大市短期不会有大于3%的大跌（最低1900），大跌要等下一个期盼已久不被严寒影响的真正gdp，如果不好，才会大跌， 超过10%。

oldhorse

bet to challenge 1970 again tomorrow and this friday

oldhorse

nasdaq formed an engulfing candle today and it also closed over march high.
a very bullish sign technically, maybe an entry for tqqq play tomorrow.

ironically,lower gdp served as a catalyst to push stocks higer.
the best is still following the bullish trend with caution in mind that the market may go down 1-2% without notice.

keep stops tight and use tza as hedge.

oldhorse

as old saying goes:
a disaster is absolutely terrific!
hahaha

aimei

小强不死

oldhorse

the market is amazingly hanging on here.

Trinity

thanks!

oldhorse

watch 1925-1930,see if it bounces.

oldhorse

gdp is a disaster.
the market may test 1940 first and then 1930.
I bet 1930 holds today, if not, we may see 1900 this week.

黄金奇异果

Thanks!