[技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q4

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q4 (Oct - Dec), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY. My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-145407-1-1.html

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly - [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly - [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly - [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly - I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily - _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly - __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

snowrider

10/01/2011 Monthly Charts

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

This is a discussion from some other forum:

wave 理论有没有引进成交量这个概念？

  Actually, yes, Elliott Wave does take volume into consideration.  The following is an extract from Elliott Wave International:

"Elliott used volume as a tool for verifying wave counts and in projecting extensions. He recognized that in any bull market, volume has a natural tendency to expand and contract with the speed of price change. Late in a corrective phase, a decline in volume often indicates a decline in selling pressure. A low point in volume often coincides with a turning point in the market. ..."

That is a long section talking about volume.  I watch volume when I trade.  I don't put volume on the charts of my wave counts, in order not to confuse people.

人性都是贪婪又胆小的。。3波5波，其中的某一波没有忽悠到足够的人进来（量不够）或者忽悠进来的人太多，会影响到下一波的时间和高度吧？

Yes, good point!!!  One way we use to predict if a wave-5 would have extension is checking the volume.  If the wave-5 has equal or more volume than wave-3, then most likely it could have extension, which means a wave-6789 would happen next.

举个例子。比如股票spring & thrust, 或者突破，大庄家突破了，但是发现没有什么人进入（量不够），庄家这个时候想：ctm的，突破拉高没有忽悠到什么钱进来，再向上会被他人short高顶，股票自己全扛着岂不亏大了，只好快速炸盘让和他在同一条阵线的人出去不了，想short的人也来不及。 如果是在大牛市，无量突破，虽然发现没有什么人进入（量不够），但庄家这个时候想：ctm的，就让那帮人short，我继续拉得更高，挤死他们，这样sqeeze得股票sky高(琢磨着nflx就是这样，单看这两年标准大牛屎啊）。
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That's what happened in the gold market also!  上破又下破 洗盤刷盤  軋空又砸盤  太難做了!

棋王

SPX 月线图上紫线走势和俺的想法接近,下破1100之后,反弹拉起.
谢谢雪骑的分享!

snowrider

SPX 月线图上紫线走势和俺的想法接近,下破1100之后,反弹拉起.
谢谢雪骑的分享!
棋王 发表于 2011-10-1 17:20

snowrider

This is a discussion in some other forum:

...量在价先，，， 反过来，价格对量有什么影响？ 比如上涨速度快或者价格高对后来的量怎么影响呢？价格高，有时不愿买，有时chase high (比如认为价值发现或者回归）。wave里面有些什么判断？

"价格对量" - Why do we want to worry about that?  We care more about the price - buy low and sell high to make profit.
"上涨速度快" - It will be forming some price area with thin volume in that fast move.  The fast move is the dot dot dot that links between accumulation and distribution areas.
"上涨速度快或者价格高对后来的量怎么影响呢" - After the price is lifted to their target area, the insider will start unloading their holdings.  Then we will see a plateau start forming with huge volume first then decreaing volume (because of unloading).
"wave里面有些什么判断？" - Wave structures/behaviors/patterns/characteristics actually explain what stage the market might be in.

时间和空间，小散伤疤好需要一段时间，有range market，这个时间在wave 理论里面怎么处理？

About the "range market", its wave structure could 333, 335, 3x3, 3x3x3, or even more complex combinations.  In most case, a range market is a continuation consolidation in the existing market direction.  It could be the wave-2,4,6,8,b.

是不是一般就到9波？ ES 1min-chart 最牛的时候我就看到9波（其中5波上涨）。。量在7，9波时慢慢枯萎了？其它的比如和fib retracement的关系怎么样？ nflx 大牛时不只9波吧？
》》黄金之类的是不是比大盘还难分析？
...

Yep yep yep ... good observation!  9 waves, then 13 waves next.
I don't know about NFLX.  Probably it had extensions over extensions again and again.
I love trading gold, but it's much harder than trading EUR and SP because gold's volume is much lower.  Gold's slippage could be very big.  I have had more than $5 slippages many times on stop orders, which I hate so much.  My favorite ones are still EUR and SP.

snowrider

10/05/2010

Comments are welcome!

BigFool

最精不见人了？

snowrider

最精不见人了？
BigFool 发表于 2011-10-15 23:04

I just came back from a vacation yesterday.

snowrider

10/16/2011


Comments are welcome!

棋王

好图，一个合理健康的回调是必须的。

snowrider

好图，一个合理健康的回调是必须的。
棋王 发表于 2011-10-16 11:04

Thanks 琪兒.  

snowrider

Some discussion:

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
That wave count down to SP 800 or so is my wave count as well and i expect many other E wavers also. Makes me think from the contrarian side that it won't happen.

Hi jas_in_hbca, Thanks for nice commenting.  I have been talking to myself a while before receiving feedbacks.  The wave count down to 800-900 area is the replica of the fractal of 2007-2009.  This assumption works so far so good.  We will need to change wave count if the market tells us otherwise.

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
i haven't seen D & E wave labels before. Should they be some kind of 'X' wave ?

Some EW technicians mark 05/02/2011 as an "X".  It is also a valid count because after an "X", there will be an ABC, which matches what the current wave movement.

Quote from jas_in_hbca:
I also see the 2009 and 2011 moves as impulsive (1, 2,3,4,5 count) . Can corrective waves take a 5-3-5  structure ? I think they can but been awhile since i've read prechters book.  If impusive then the 2011 move could be a wave 1 of a larger 3. that would surprise alot of people.

Anyway just thinking out loud. Nice to see your charts.

It does not really matter too much now if the moves in 2009 and 2011 are impulsive or not because we do see a big 5-3-5 structure from 2009 to 2011.  Once a 5-3-5 is formed, next piece of wave movement will be either resuming or reversing.  If the wave continues in the same direction, the 5-3-5 becomes the 123 of the whole 12345.  If the wave reverses, the 5-3-5 becomes the corrective wave of a higher timeframe (this scenario is the preferred count that we have now).

About RP, he has contributed a lot of ideas/thoughts to the EW world.  But there are something that I don't agree.  And he has been wrong on SP for more than 10 or 20 years.  I used to read his analysis every week (bi-week?  I cannot remember), but I stopped reading that about 15 years ago because it seemed to me that RP does not really understand wave patterns (and how those patterns got formed by the market).  I suspect that he never really traded by using wave analysis; he would have been wiped out many times long time ago otherwise.

snowrider

Some discussion:

people who are in love with elliot wave have a selective seeing problem, when it works out they jump up and down and as in most cases it dont work out they make no mention of it on wall street you have 2 groups, those losing money and in love with EV and those who make big money who like to laugh at EV and other indicators

I spent 2 years there

Hedge212 - Thanks for commenting.  Sorry to hear that you have "spent 2 years there" (with EW) and without any success.  EW is actually one of the best TA approaches that I have experienced with.  A mature EW technician will not have any "selective seeing problem" because all scenarios need to be considered.  And "when it works out", they won't "jump up and down" because everything is known and just another same old thing that there is nothing new under the sun.  If the preferred wave count does not work, the alternative count takes over right away, and why do "they make no mention of it"???

I understand that you have big frustration on EW ... "on wall street ... those losing money and in love with EW" ... so you departed from EW because it did not get you what you wanted?!  Please honestly ask yourself if one should blame her teacher if she is not able to pass an exam?  Let me tell you the truth, a 3-year-old kid's stock pick will be better than that from the average fund managers on wall street.

snowrider

Some discussion:

MHP一下，如果按照这个spx的理解交易，若要先等小wave去1100，甚至short到1100的话，就把这个小牛市完全错过了（说不定还亏）。 请教一下，在这种情况下，wave专家们怎么处理呢？

[quote="snowrider"]
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yupek - 問得好!  Let me explain this.  When you enter a trade, the first thing you need to know is what your trading timeframe is.

If the timeframe is a long term one, you see that the preferred wave count on 09/30/2011's monthly chart shows where a good buying area is.  The long term wave count was expecting a huge rebound anytime soon in October.

If the timeframe is a short term one, you see that the preferred wave count on 10/05/2011 (before I went to vacation) daily chart shows a short term target is above 1200.  Two questions: 1. Would you short on 10/06/2011 (I probably would if I was not away and incurred some small DT loss), and 2. Would you go long on 10/06/2011?  For an EW technician, the wave count needed a small adjustment after the market closed on 10/06/2011.  I call it "紅三兵" (asia term), and people here call it "三白兵".  I would not expect it to have correction back down to 1100 area because the formation is strongly bullish.

In conclusion, trading with different timeframes in the same market could have different results.  I have been expecting 破底翻 for a long time (please check out my past posts).  I have been shorting SP and buying 3x bear ETFs the week before it 破底.  I have also started accumulated long term bull position everytime SP dipped.  All bearish position was liquidated when it 破底 10/03 and 10/04, and also comes with a heavy adding up to my long term bull position.

Why do so?  A trend won't end unless a false break occurs.  That (破底翻) was what we EW technicians expected.