[闲谈] M, 联储九月加息，鸽子（派）继续飞

tianfangye

提示，CNBC主持的调查表明，多数期待9月开始加息， 今年2次，明年4次， 同时， 联储将调低GDP预测值。
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ZT  CNBC
Markets hope to hear from a dovish Fed Wednesday, even though Fed Chair Janet Yellen  may send a strong message that the central bank is likely to raise interest rates this year.
The Fed is widely expected to hike rates for the first time in nine years in September. Ninety-two percent of the participants in CNBC's Fed Survey expect the central bank to begin raising rates this year, and the consensus is for 53 basis points this year, which would be the result of two quarter-point hikes.


"Our expectation is that the Fed is going to reiterate a desire to hike interest rates this year and signal it expects two hikes this year," said John Bellows, portfolio manager at Western Asset Management. "Next year, they are currently expecting something like four rate hikes. I don't think that's going to change. I think its two hikes in 2015 , four hikes next year."

"That is in some sense entirely consistent with what they've been saying all year. Just a few weeks ago, Janet Yellen laid out the case for hiking this year," Bellows said.


Fed officials began their two-day meeting Tuesday and will release a statement and new economic and interest rate forecasts at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday. Yellen also holds a 2:30 p.m. press briefing.


Read More Fed wants 2 rate hikes, but may back down: Expert


"I think they want to keep September on the table. I think they don't want to make any decisions in June. They're teeing it up to see how it evolves. Every meeting is important before they pull the trigger. They'll do slight adjustments. They truly want to be constructive on the outlook, and they'll mention they're not pleased with the industrial sector not picking up, and that there's a lot of uncertainty in the world," said George Goncalves, Nomura rates strategist.


The Fed should sound optimistic on the economy thought it is likely to trim its GDP  forecast based on the weak first quarter.


It is also expected to release a new "dot plot," or table with Fed officials' interest rate projections. That is expected to show a slower course of rate hikes. The market expects the Fed to hold interest rates lower for longer, and provide a slowly rising trajectory for rate hikes.

Start123

不会这么多。FED多次表示，是个慢热过程。

我判断今年1次，明年至多三次。

aimei

哗啦啦
滑溜溜
灰溜溜

TeasedByWS

TeasedByWS

回复 2# Start123


    我也是这么想，猜的。