[讨论] 简单计算表明SP可能跌到1066!

not4weak

This assumes that investors require a minimum 8% expected return, that the S&P earnings and dividend will grow at 5%  (3% GDP growth plus 2.0% inflation) and that the long run S&P 500 P/E ratio is 15. Higher S&P 500  index values are implicitly assuming that the current normalized starting earnings level is higher than $85, that earnings growth will exceed 5% annually, that the justifiable long-run P/E exceeds 15, and/or that investors require less than an 8% (pre-tax) return.

not4weak

Our assumption is that the S&P earnings will grow with GDP at about 5% per year and yield a 1.73% dividend yield and sell at a long-term P/E of 15 in ten years.

tfmegatron

farshine

坏人!

棋王

This assumes that investors require a minimum 8% expected return, that the S& earnings and dividend will grow at 5%  (3% GDP growth plus 2.0% inflation) and that the long run S& 500 P/E ratio is 15. ...
not4weak 发表于 2011-3-23 20:44

下载 (13.34 KB)

2011-3-23 21:02

坏人。

not4weak

你们看看, 这计算是对的, 以10年为限

ctcld

你们看看, 这计算是对的, 以10年为限
not4weak 发表于 2011-3-23 22:44

你说10年后SP回到1066？我倒。

除非加州大地震都到太平洋里去。

not4weak

7# ctcld
姑且不说你的理解错误吧.
你要清楚的是, 十年前SP在哪里? 怎么就不可能? CITI的例子不是说明问题吗? DIVIDENDS全发完了... 公司MATURED了. 十年股价不涨, 你能如何?

停车坐爱

活在裆下。。。十年后，儿子都娶媳妇儿了。。。