王琪 - Thanks. I am still holding my light long position on the index futures since ... I cannot remember when. My stock holding has very little change: DELL, LCC, UAL, ONNN (Tuesday), BBD (Wednesday). The stock holdings are for 長期後備部隊, but the futures trading is the real deal for 短期前鋒部隊.
Q - Why is SP's preferred wave count in daily chart a bearish one for semi long term?
A - A convincing answer for general public is the google result of "stock seasonal trend". However, to us EW believers, the real answer is that a super bull (wave-[[[V]]]) will be coming after the bear market ends.
Scenario-1:
A giant multi-year triangle forming
the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]] will
complete in 800-900 area
sometimes next year, and then a
super bull wave-[[[V]]] starts
However, if the market continues being manipulated and rejecting the gravity, a real doomsday will come eventually. In that case, when all resorts are depleted, the market will hard to come back in decade.
Scenario-2:
If the super cycle's wave-[[[IV]]]
has completed in an flat abc format
in 2009, we now are in wave-[[[V]]]
(the the final phase of the bull market)