[技术分析] Perfect Wave - 2011-Q2

snowrider

I am starting a new thread for 2011 Q2 (Apr - Jun), including EUR, SP, Gold, and JPY.  My wave counts of last quarter can be found from:
  http://www.yayabay.com/forum/viewthread.php?tid=118223

Elliott Wave reference can be found from:
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle

My labeling for wave degrees in different time frames:
Monthly – [[[I]]], [[[II]]], [[[III]]], [[[IV]]], [[[V]]], [[[A]]], [[[B]]], [[[C]]]
Monthly – [[I]], [[II]], [[III]], [[IV]], [[V]], [[A]], [[B]], [[C]]
Weekly – [I], [II], [III], [IV], [V], [A], [B], [C]
Weekly – I, II, III, IV, V, A, B, C
Daily – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, a, b, c
Daily – _1, _2, _3, _4, _5, _a, _b, _c
Hourly – __1, __2, __3, __4, __5, __a, __b, __c

snowrider

04/02/2011 (Long Term View - Weekly)

Comments are welcome!

pdz

黄金美元都有牛熊两种数法，为什么sp全是熊？为什么0903以来的一定是abc反弹浪，而不是创新高的主升浪？

snowrider

黄金美元都有牛熊两种数法，为什么sp全是熊？为什么0903以来的一定是abc反弹浪，而不是创新高的主升浪？
pdz 发表于 2011-4-2 23:02

Thanks for the comment.

Good questions!  Before I answer my question, I want to clarify that my long term view for USD is mix:
  - EUR: long term appreciation (whether EUR's wave-[E] has completed or not)
  - JPY: long term depreciation (whether JPY's wave-[E] has completed or not)

About SP, why my view is a big abc now (i.e., an [A]-[B]-[C] to complete a wave-[[D]] before a big bear wave [[E]])?  Other than the reason that "it's how I feel", let me give you some:

1. The super cycle's correction should have finished in 2009 (from 2000 to 2009) as a huge flat wave ([[A]], [[B]], [[C]]).  If that was the case, the volume of the bull since 2009 till now should have been in an increasing mode, but the volume did not catch up with the bull.

2. Another thing is that a good and healthy bull market should demonstrate some parabolic movement with vertex on the top of the price curve.  Now even though SP is going up, but it is showing unhealthy movement with vertex below the price curve.

3. One more reason is that healthy impulsive waves need to have 5 segments (12345), but the wave count seems to have unhealthy impulsive waves (abced) with 3 mini segments in each segment.

Hope this help.  I'll change my view, if the market can later show something different (e.g., good gradually increasing volume, 5 waves, explosively up ... etc).

aimei

so SP heads south?
But not this week?

snowrider

so SP heads south?
But not this week?
aimei 发表于 2011-4-3 18:43

I don't think that it would be so soon.

The wave-A took 5 weeks to complete.  If we are in the wave-E now (which has taken 2 weeks already), I will expect the wave still has 2-3 weeks to go.

snowrider

04/09/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

04/16/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

04/23/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

05/01/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

05/07/2011

Comments are welcome!

snowrider

05/14/2011

Comments are welcome!

axp

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks

snowrider

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks
axp 发表于 2011-5-15 10:19

axp - Thanks for asking.  Which one has higher probability, I don't know.  Things change all the time.  The wave has been moving in such an abc formation and formed [C].E wave for a while.  I would rather believe that it's still on track to a bear movement (i.e., an 12345 coming) until the wave proves otherwise.

snowrider

for SP500, which senario has higher probability? thanks
axp 发表于 2011-5-15 10:19

Continue from my previous post ... but if we are in the betting point of view, I have a different view:

At this point (~1338), betting it to go up has better reward vs risk.  It's a channel line connecting from the low of 03/16 to 04/18 and then to last week's low.  Breaking this line singals the channel line's failure and also invalidates the formation of Ending Diagonal.  So ... from the trading (or betting) point of view, buying here 1338 and placing an stop order below 1329 has a risk of 9 points.  Where is the reward?  If the Ending Diagonal assumption is correct, then we are looking at around 1400 area, which gives you 62 points.