fa28

回复 13# Start123

望远镜看是不是要去110？

tlt周线看还有一线见底的生机

AIMEIFAN

谢谢分享。

xixi08

thanks for sharing.

lovefreedom

attm

I believe it's mainly from the selling pressure from China. Your logic is mostly right, but how can you explain German bund yield up like crazy in the meantime (carry trade makes both sides sink)?
回复 13# Start123

Start123

Because of Euro. German has a heavy weight on it

carry trade? see here

下载 (378.82 KB)

2015-5-12 16:03

ningeve

谢谢 拜读了

fa28

回复 21# Start123

attm

after all, the cross currency rates spread is equivalent to the forward/spot fx spread.
I mean if the carry trade keeps going on it will knock the euro and US treasury yield and support the bund yield; or the other way around when people are unwinding this carry trade position. But in either way, we should not see both UST and bund yield are increasing. And that's why I said carry trade is not the main reason for this treasury selloff.
回复 21# Start123

fa28

tlt historical dividends
First | Previous | Next | Last

Date        Open        High        Low        Close        Volume        Adj Close*
May 1, 2015        0.258 Dividend
Apr 1, 2015        0.273 Dividend
Mar 2, 2015        0.252 Dividend
Feb 2, 2015        0.279 Dividend
Dec 24, 2014        0.261 Dividend
Dec 1, 2014        0.277 Dividend
Nov 3, 2014        0.29 Dividend
Oct 1, 2014        0.289 Dividend
Sep 2, 2014        0.271 Dividend
Aug 1, 2014        0.30 Dividend
Jul 1, 2014        0.292 Dividend
Jun 2, 2014        0.294 Dividend
May 1, 2014        0.269 Dividend
Apr 1, 2014        0.28 Dividend
Mar 3, 2014        0.263 Dividend
Feb 3, 2014        0.276 Dividend
Dec 26, 2013        0.335 Dividend
Dec 2, 2013        0.31 Dividend
Nov 1, 2013        0.288 Dividend
Oct 1, 2013        0.278 Dividend
Sep 3, 2013        0.279 Dividend
Aug 1, 2013        0.27 Dividend
Jul 1, 2013        0.252 Dividend
Jun 3, 2013        0.275 Dividend
May 1, 2013        0.261 Dividend
Apr 1, 2013        0.255 Dividend
Mar 1, 2013        0.254 Dividend
Feb 1, 2013        0.26 Dividend
Dec 26, 2012        0.268 Dividend
Dec 3, 2012        0.245 Dividend
Oct 1, 2012        0.26 Dividend
Sep 4, 2012        0.272 Dividend
Aug 1, 2012        0.273 Dividend
Jul 2, 2012        0.269 Dividend
Jun 1, 2012        0.263 Dividend
May 1, 2012        0.283 Dividend
Apr 2, 2012        0.29 Dividend
Mar 1, 2012        0.267 Dividend
Feb 1, 2012        0.289 Dividend
Dec 27, 2011        0.38 Dividend
Dec 1, 2011        0.29 Dividend
Nov 1, 2011        0.299 Dividend
Oct 3, 2011        0.306 Dividend
Sep 1, 2011        0.322 Dividend
Aug 1, 2011        0.325 Dividend
Jul 1, 2011        0.32 Dividend
Jun 1, 2011        0.352 Dividend
May 2, 2011        0.40 Dividend
Apr 1, 2011        0.386 Dividend
Mar 1, 2011        0.297 Dividend
Feb 1, 2011        0.32 Dividend
Dec 28, 2010        0.32 Dividend
Dec 1, 2010        0.34 Dividend
Nov 1, 2010        0.319 Dividend
Oct 1, 2010        0.392 Dividend
Sep 1, 2010        0.322 Dividend
Aug 2, 2010        0.324 Dividend
Jul 1, 2010        0.31 Dividend
Jun 1, 2010        0.326 Dividend
May 3, 2010        0.32 Dividend
Apr 1, 2010        0.332 Dividend
Mar 1, 2010        0.29 Dividend
Feb 1, 2010        0.325 Dividend
Dec 29, 2009        0.318 Dividend
Dec 1, 2009        0.307 Dividend
Nov 2, 2009        0.308 Dividend
Oct 1, 2009        0.307 Dividend
Sep 1, 2009        0.307 Dividend
Aug 3, 2009        0.318 Dividend
Jul 1, 2009        0.303 Dividend
Jun 1, 2009        0.305 Dividend
May 1, 2009        0.297 Dividend
Apr 1, 2009        0.302 Dividend
Mar 2, 2009        0.282 Dividend
Feb 2, 2009        0.285 Dividend
Dec 29, 2008        0.405 Dividend
Dec 1, 2008        0.355 Dividend
Nov 3, 2008        0.37 Dividend
Oct 1, 2008        0.29 Dividend
Sep 2, 2008        0.34 Dividend
Aug 1, 2008        0.332 Dividend
Jul 1, 2008        0.332 Dividend
Jun 2, 2008        0.327 Dividend
May 1, 2008        0.336 Dividend
Apr 1, 2008        0.406 Dividend
Mar 3, 2008        0.348 Dividend
Feb 1, 2008        0.329 Dividend
Dec 27, 2007        0.362 Dividend
Dec 3, 2007        0.376 Dividend
Nov 1, 2007        0.394 Dividend
Oct 1, 2007        0.345 Dividend
Sep 4, 2007        0.362 Dividend
Aug 1, 2007        0.341 Dividend
Jul 2, 2007        0.326 Dividend
Jun 1, 2007        0.338 Dividend
May 1, 2007        0.324 Dividend
Apr 2, 2007        0.326 Dividend
Mar 1, 2007        0.343 Dividend
Feb 1, 2007        0.355 Dividend
Dec 27, 2006        0.303 Dividend
Dec 1, 2006        0.342 Dividend
Nov 1, 2006        0.345 Dividend
Oct 2, 2006        0.354 Dividend
Sep 1, 2006        0.35 Dividend
Aug 1, 2006        0.342 Dividend
Jul 3, 2006        0.327 Dividend
Jun 1, 2006        0.332 Dividend
May 1, 2006        0.33 Dividend
Apr 3, 2006        0.328 Dividend
Mar 1, 2006        0.32 Dividend
Feb 1, 2006        0.321 Dividend
Dec 28, 2005        0.383 Dividend
Dec 1, 2005        0.39 Dividend
Nov 1, 2005        0.397 Dividend
Oct 3, 2005        0.362 Dividend
Sep 1, 2005        0.334 Dividend
Aug 1, 2005        0.345 Dividend
Jul 1, 2005        0.332 Dividend
Jun 1, 2005        0.349 Dividend
May 2, 2005        0.33 Dividend
Apr 1, 2005        0.33 Dividend
Mar 1, 2005        0.282 Dividend
Feb 1, 2005        0.345 Dividend
Dec 31, 2004        0.335 Dividend
Dec 1, 2004        0.355 Dividend
Nov 1, 2004        0.366 Dividend
Oct 1, 2004        0.361 Dividend
Sep 1, 2004        0.35 Dividend
Aug 2, 2004        0.33 Dividend
Jul 1, 2004        0.336 Dividend
Jun 1, 2004        0.322 Dividend
May 3, 2004        0.325 Dividend
Apr 1, 2004        0.348 Dividend
Mar 1, 2004        0.356 Dividend
Feb 2, 2004        0.358 Dividend
Dec 31, 2003        0.40 Dividend
Dec 16, 2003        0.00 Dividend
Dec 1, 2003        0.418 Dividend
Nov 3, 2003        0.348 Dividend
Oct 1, 2003        0.367 Dividend
Sep 2, 2003        0.372 Dividend
Aug 1, 2003        0.378 Dividend
Jul 1, 2003        0.353 Dividend
Jun 2, 2003        0.398 Dividend
May 1, 2003        0.473 Dividend
Apr 1, 2003        0.378 Dividend
Mar 3, 2003        0.34 Dividend
Feb 3, 2003        0.308 Dividend
Dec 31, 2002        0.446 Dividend
Dec 2, 2002        0.389 Dividend
Nov 1, 2002        0.389 Dividend
Oct 1, 2002        0.343 Dividend
Sep 3, 2002        0.373 Dividend

fa28

回复 24# attm


    仔细思考了一下，如果是carry trade应该是卖欧元卖美债，不会是救欧元。欧债的yield和美债的yield相差这么多，欧洲carry trade的美金为什么不会流入到美债里？不明白啊。

中国卖美债的速度大于欧洲买美债的速度应该是美债被抛售的原因，剩下的再想想。