[闲谈] St. Louis Fed (流氓）经济学家， OIL will BE $0/B BY 2019

tianfangye

你信吗？

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2016/february/future-oil-price-consistent-inflation-expectations

Results
We calculated the future path of the CPI over the next 10 years (starting in January 2016) that would be consistent with breakeven inflation expectations at horizons of one year through 10 years.2 Then, using an annual growth rate of 2.87 percent for the “all items less energy” component and using 0.46 for the elasticity of the energy component with respect to oil prices, we backed out the future path of oil prices that would produce this future path of the CPI.3 The figure below displays the implied oil price series and compares it to the future oil prices implied by West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures. 4

Conclusion
According to our calculations, oil prices would need to fall to $0 per barrel by mid-2019 in order to validate current inflation expectations. After that, there is no oil price that would allow our model to predict a CPI path consistent with December 2015 breakeven inflation expectations. This implied path of oil prices is very different from the path of oil prices implied by futures contracts, which rises to more than $50 per barrel by mid-2019.
We state some potential explanations for our results:

• Expectations for the future growth of the other CPI components besides energy may be lower than the annual rate of 2.87 percent we assumed in our model.
• The recent movements in breakeven inflation expectations may have been caused by something other than the decline in oil prices. It is even possible that a third variable is driving the decline in both.
• Investors may expect the relationship between oil price and the CPI energy component to change in the future. (This would be despite the strong relationship seen over the past 20 years, shown in the second figure in our previous blog post.)
• Changes in the inflation risk premium for bonds that are not inflation-protected and/or changes in the liquidity premium for TIPS may be distorting breakeven inflation expectations in the last few months.

Notes and References
1 In this backtest, we performed an out-of-sample prediction of the CPI from July 2014 to December 2015 using the actual path of oil prices over that time period. This is the future CPI path our model would have predicted in June 2014 assuming that we knew what oil prices would be through the end of 2015.
2 We used the December 2015 breakeven inflation expectations to estimate December values of the CPI over the next 10 years from December 2016 to December 2025. We obtained the remaining monthly CPI values by assuming constant growth of the CPI between each of these December estimates.
3 The value of the elasticity of energy component with respect to oil price was estimated via ordinary least squares. See the second figure of our previous blog post.
4 An oil futures contract is a standardized agreement, tradable between parties on an organized exchange, for the seller to deliver a certain quantity of oil to the buyer on a future date at a specific price determined today. The prices of such contracts are often interpreted as the market’s forecasts of spot oil prices.

aimei

作死呀
可能性很小吧

tianfangye

回复 2# aimei


从来没看到这么无耻无知胡说八道的经济学家

tianfangye

油服公司贝克休斯（Baker Hughes）公布数据显示，2月26日当周，美国石油钻井减少13台，至400台，为连续第十周下降，至2009年12月11日当周以来最低。美国天然气钻井平台增加1台，至102台。

美国2月26日当周石油钻井减少13台，至400台，为连续第十周下降，并创2009年12月11日当周以来新低。

美国2月26日当周天然气钻井增加1台，至102台。

美国2月26日当周总钻井减少12台，至502台。

贝克休斯钻井平台数据发布后，WTI 4月原油期货短线上涨0.3美元，至每桶33.51美元。不过稍后即有所回落，截至收盘，WTI 4月原油期货收跌0.9%，报每桶32.78美元，但本周累计上涨逾3%。布伦特4月原油期货收报每桶35.10美元。下图显示的是追踪油井平台数（蓝色线）与油价（黑色线）变化的曲线。