With the last wave degree top being in place now, we can modify our support region for the larger-degree wave 4 to between the 1930ES-1943ES region. The 1930ES region is the .382 retracement of what would be the larger-degree wave 3, which began in May, and the 1943ES region is the 1.00 extension of the entire rally off the February low, and is the most common target for a wave 4 based upon Fibonacci Pinball.
Therefore, it would take a strong break of this support region to have me begin to confidently target the 1837 region as the minimum target for a larger-degree correction, with the potential to drop as low as 1740. A breakdown below 1905ES provides solid confirmation for this larger-degree correction. Until such breakdown is seen, I would caution anyone who is considering shorting aggressively right now.
However, once this support is broken, I believe we have enough room to begin to trade the bearish side of the market for a move down to at least the 1830ES region, which is 100 points below our support region, with the potential to drop another 100 points below that. If we do not see that correction from this set up, but rather begin a run to 2100, then there is no question in my mind that we will likely be seeing that type of correction from the 2100 region, as there will be no more 5th wave potentials in the wave degree which we have been tracking since February. |
发表于 2014-9-29 14:59
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发表于 2014-10-16 01:24
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