[转贴] Mark Hulbert: additional selling may be coming
本帖最后由 not4weak 于 2011-10-3 23:09 编辑
By MarketWatch
Oct. 3, 2011, 4:37 p.m. EDT
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — It’s now official: The fourth time is not a charm.
Prior to today, the stock market over the last six weeks had—on three separate occasions—successfully tested its early August closing low. It failed on its fourth test today.
This is bad news from the point of view of any of a number of technically-oriented timing models. Many of them were poised to trigger additional sell signals if the August lows were broken on a closing basis. So be prepared for additional waves of selling in coming sessions.
We may very well have gotten a taste of that selling in the final minutes of today’s session, as it became increasingly clear that at least the S&P 500 index SPX -2.85% would be closing below its early August low. The market quickly plunged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average SPX -2.85% shedding more than 100 points in a period of less than 30 minutes before the close.
One prominent technical timing system that generated a bearish signal at Monday’s close is the venerable Dow Theory, the oldest market timing system still in widespread use today. Two of the three Dow Theorists monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest were already bearish going into Monday’s session, and interpreted the day’s action as a bearish confirmation.
The third, Jack Schannep, of TheDowtheory.com, had been bullish prior to Monday. But after the close today he threw in the towel. So now all three of the HFD-monitored Dow Theorists are unanimous in believing we are in a major bear market.
发表于 2011-10-3 22:52
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发表于 2011-10-3 23:02
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