ychen222

老陈啊，还是把花在读这些垃圾文章上的时间来陪陪孩子吧。。
大傻 发表于 2011-4-28 19:17

我一般比老婆孩子早起，在他们还在睡觉的时候花10分钟左右读读各种垃圾，觉得还算表面光鲜的就记一笔。
其他的时间当然不敢这样浪费。

ychen222

胡同/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=119113&extra=page%3D1&page=1

“你最好早做准备。。。”

据说不确定对股市伤害比较大。


下周我旅行，可能不能发贴。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/jones050211.html

“While several articles have been proffered by authors I respect deeply, they have not offered a means to determine when the Dollar has bottomed. While nothing is full proof, the longer term SPX chart may be a guide as to when the U.S. Dollar will begin to bottom. The SPX weekly chart shown below illustrates the long term ascending channel that the S&P 500 has been trading in for some time.

My "educated guess" as to when the Dollar will begin to bottom will likely coincide with a test of the ascending trend line. In previous articles, I opined that I thought we would see the S&P 500 rally and we are in that process now. My guess is that about the time the S&P 500 tests the rising channel, we will see the U.S. Dollar begin to bottom.”

我支持此预测。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s41134367]&disp=O

记得4月底时候看月图BB上轨还在2870附近，一到5月就变成2949了。
仅从这一点看，中期顶应该能冲到2949，甚至3000也未必不可能。

ychen222

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

在新一期“Muddle Through, or Crisis?”里John Mauldin说：

“I think the crucial point will be reached in late 2013. If the bond market sees a serious move to control the deficit, I think they let us “skate.” Then we Muddle Through. But if not, I think we begin to see some real push-back on rates then.

Why so early? Because bond investors are going to be watching the slow-motion train wreck that is happening in Europe and especially Japan. It is one thing for Greece to default (which they will in one form or another, with lots of rumors flying this morning), yet another for Japan to do so. Japan is big and makes a difference. Japan could start to go as early as the middle of 2013. As I have said, Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. Whenever this happens, 2013 or a year or so later, it is going to spook the bond market. The normal indulgence that a superpower and reserve-currency country would be accorded will become much more strained. It will seemingly happen overnight. Think Lehman Brothers on steroids.”

这样看来，大危机可能发生在2013年。那么经过今年夏季的大回调后，从秋后开始到明年一整年，一个不错的大牛市可期。

wyemlyy

问题是夏天什么时候会回调呢？Sell in May or After QE2?

35# ychen222

ychen222

问题是夏天什么时候会回调呢？Sell in May or After QE2?

35# ychen222
wyemlyy 发表于 2011-5-11 09:18

我猜大回调发生在6月份，等NASDAQ到达2950，SP500过1400以后。

ychen222

http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2011-05-10/034022434278.shtml

第三轮中美战略与经济对话看来搞得不错，不知当前的美元涨，油价跌，美债涨是否跟此有关。
可能中国在钱上还是要迁就一下老美，而美国在政治关系上迁就一下中国。

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2466245.html
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2467622.html

前一个写得的确出色。

后一个发誓里表达的情绪让人遗憾，在网上想主要依靠正途来得到正反馈不太现实，因为多数情况下人家之所以发帖就是想抬高自己贬低别人。

ychen222

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor051211.html
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/connor041811.html

此人在他的4月份的前一篇里是反指，看这次5月的到底是正指还是反指。

ychen222

http://www.zaobao.com/gj/gj110516_003.shtml

“这些紧急措施只能维持到8月2日”。

8月初也许是股市调整的高潮期。

ychen222

A股和铜到现在为止显然还是没有起色，已经持续跌势超过一个月。
若它们是美股的先导指标的话，美股堪忧。

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 926808&cmd=show[s199362375]&disp=O

CPCE应该是先导指标。这次股市还算不上跌破位，CPCE均线却已经熊起。
老熊想吃肉的时候会走得这么面吗？

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

此讲法我以前也听说过。
所以这最后一波也许多仓持大盘股比较好，比如说NDX；转空时候持小盘股较好。

ychen222

又是OE刚过，想起4/21的帖子。
那么上个OE周算涨还是跌呢？一二三四月还是比较明确的，而上周则复杂一点，周12跌，周345算小涨，整体算什么呢？
跌？那么今明2天可能继续跌一跌，然后大涨？
若后半周的涨是MM做出来对付OE的，那么现在就会直接大跌了。