[转贴] February 23, 2014 Weekend Market Update

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Equities ended mixed after some notable daily swings on the holiday-shortened week. Despite downbeat housing and manufacturing data, positive earnings reports helped pull a couple of the major indices higher. The weather continues to wreak havoc on the retailers and housing.  Everyone from investor’s, CEO’s and the Fed keep blaming poor economic data on the weather but many suspect this is only a part of the slowing story. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes indicated that the likelihood of further tapering is an almost certainty. Based on FOMC minutes and Fed-Speak, quantitative easing will come to a stop by the fourth quarter of this year unless economic data exceptionally suggest otherwise. Facebook (FB) announced the purchase of a messaging start-up so investors continue to believe that M&A activity will be strong this year. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell 0.1% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) led the downside again off 0.3% for the week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) rose slightly up 0.5% and the market-leading small caps (RUT) gained 1.3%.



Volatility rallied this past week as the previous week’s losses may have been over-done. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sits near $14.70 and rose over 8% for the week. The ‘Fear Gauge’ remains below the $15 level but a topping market may provide some downside breaks in the near-term.  We should expect volatility to remain muted unless a catalyst such as higher interest rates or further geopolitical turmoil erupts.  



Treasury yields were essentially flat this past week with daily movement modest at the most. Bonds firmed up on Friday into the close but the 10-year Note Yield remains in a tight range between 2.6% and 2.8%. Despite higher stock prices, Treasuries are still in demand as many investors are weary of the quick rise back near all-time highs for equities.  Oil Futures (/CL) rose moderately for the week with some softening late into Friday. Natural Gas futures (/NG) rose 20% this past week as cold weather blankets most of the Midwest and Northeast. Speculators are predicting that cold weather will remain which will further increase consumer demand for energy.



There is quite a bit of economic data on the calendar this week. Housing and manufacturing remain in the spotlight. Adverse weather bumped down existing home sales in January but the question this week is if weather impacted new home sales and pending existing home sales. Manufacturing output also fell in January due in part to weather but new orders are not affected by weather and reflect underlying demand. New orders for Durables (Thursday) likely will give a clearer picture of the health of the manufacturing sector. There is also a couple of Consumer sentiment numbers due this week which will provide some scope on spending. We will wind up the economic news for the week with the second look at 4thQuarter GDP on Friday.  Earnings are still in the spotlight also as reports are due this week from Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT) and Gap Stores (GPS).








Major Earnings for the Upcoming Week:

Monday:  FTR, SINA, SCTY, THC, VNO



Tuesday: BMO, CLGX, DPZ, EOG, FSLR, HD, M, ODP, SAM, TMUS, TOL



Wednesday: ADSK, ANF, BIDU, BUD, DLTR, JCP, SODA, TGT, TJX



Thursday:  BBY, CRM, DECK, GPS, HLT, KSS, MYL, ROST, SHLD, TD



Friday: DDD, IRM



Economic Releases (2/24-2/28):

Monday:

7:30 am CT – Chicago Fed National Activity Index

7:58 am CT – PMI Services Flash

9:30 am CT – Dallas Fed Mfg. Survey

2:50 pm CT – Fed’s Hoenig Speaks

                                                                                                                                                                                

Tuesday:

6:45 am CT – GS Store Sales

8:00 am CT –House Price Index

8:00 am CT – S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index

9:00 am CT – Consumer Confidence

9:00 am CT – Richmond Fed Mfg. Survey

9:10 am CT – Fed’s Tarullo Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 2-year Note Auction Results

                                                                                                                                                                                                              

Wednesday:

6:00 am CT – MBA Purchase Applications

9:00 am CT – New Home Sales

9:30 am CT – Oil Inventories

11:00 am CT – Fed’s Rosengren Speaks

12:00 pm CT – 5-year Note Auction Results

6:30 pm CT – Fed’s Pianalto Speaks

                    

Thursday:

7:30 am CT– Weekly Jobless Claims

7:30 am CT– Durable Goods

9:00 am CT – Fed’s Yellen Speaks

9:30 am CT – Natural Gas Inventories

10:00 am CT – Kansas City Fed Mfg. Survey

12:00 pm CT – 7-year Note Auction Results



                                                                                                                                                                                                        

Friday:

7:30 am CT- GDP

8:45 am CT– Chicago PMI

8:55 am CT – Consumer Sentiment

9:00 am CT – Pending Home Sales

9:10 am CT – Fed’s Stein Speaks

12:30 pm CT – Fed’s Evans Speaks

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