[读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (四)

ychen222

（一）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3
（二）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=1
（三）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1

ychen222

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

“left translated cycles”“right translated cycles”的确是重要概念。
而从3月中到现在只有15周，到8月初才20周，对应6/10的图，SP500的1185大概难免。

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2011-6-28 07:38

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... rvlet?obj=ID3400916

这两天量不足。

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2011-6-29 06:19

ychen222

Gary在http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/说的也许有道理，大盘在底部的话不应该如此急于逼空。
操作上今天不妨出掉多仓，伺机上一点空仓。
另外注意UUP的动向。

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2011-7-1 05:43

aimei

thanks

ychen222

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

"The next couple of weeks are going to be important. The dollar should form a short term daily cycle low sometime in the next few days. If the bounce out of that low is weak, rolls over quickly, and breaches that pivot then the odds are going to be high that May did not mark the final three-year low. If the dollar still has one more leg down then the deflationary scenario is going to be put on hold while that runs it's course. "

Gary的口气软了。
现在美元/欧元走势可能性大的还是继续收敛，大方向不明。
其实他的07年图里，8月探底后还有新高，这个8月探底会不会相当于现在的6月探底？

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2011-7-5 06:18

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... 393449&cmd=show[s123834437]&disp=O

这是老蛇图集里的UUP周图。
在没有突破wedge前，熊熊还是得低调。不过说实话，最近量很大，突破也不是没希望。

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2011-7-6 06:56

aimei

Looks wnna up?

ychen222

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ob ... p;asset=&ccode=

从这个形势看，驴象正在拉开架势，不搞出声响来怎么行？政客就是干这个的。
而股市在Default的阴影下欣欣向荣，你相信吗？

ychen222

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock ... /010510123458.shtml

“巴菲特7月8日表示，美国经济将实现持续增长，不会出现二次衰退，预计房地产市场的最终复苏将提振就业。”

巴菲特对美国经济看法还是挺乐观的。

ychen222

更新一下7/6号贴里的图，wedge好象突破了。

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2011-7-12 06:09

ychen222

www.JohnMauldin.com.

“What Happened to the Jobs? By John Mauldin | July 8, 2011”

“The economy will already be slowing down. A recession in 2012 is a real possibility if there is any type of shock coming from Europe, and what will happen there is anyone’s guess. I think most European leaders are basing their thinking more on hope than on reality. When Greece defaults there will be a domino effect; you can count on it. And you could actually see a banking crisis before we get actual sovereign defaults.

Gentle reader, you need to understand that the market does not get it. Neither in Europe nor in the US. When someone says the market has already priced in a default, go back and ask them how well the market priced in a crisis in the spring of 2008. The market doesn’t know jack.

I got a lot of internet buzz from a throwaway line in an interview on CNBC in London. I said that if the market knew what Bernanke and the leadership of the central banks talked about after their third glass of wine, the market would wet its pants. That is not to suggest I don’t think Bernanke or Trichet can hold their liquor. It means that they get the problem more than they let on in public and are simply trying to stem as much damage as they can.

Banking crises are followed by credit crises by 2-3 years. It is getting close to that time. We need 3-3.5% GDP growth in the US to really make a dent in jobs. We are not going to get it. There is nothing we can do other than Muddle Through as best we can. Prepare accordingly.”

难得John Mauldin这么说话。

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2522421.html

“强烈感觉的反指又来了, 明天gap down. 然后怎么走就一点没感觉了.

根据price action 的 以往观察,如果有三天, 第一天 开高收底, 第二天平开,冲高,回原位, 第三, 再次平开,冲高,回原位. 那么第四天, 十有八九是 gap down.

反过来也一样, 第一天 开低收高, 第二天平开,dip,回原位, 第三, 再次平开,dip,回原位. 那么第四天, 十有八九是 gap up.”

第一次听到这样的说法。其实周一算大的低开收底，昨天算高开。

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2011-7-14 06:25

ychen222

http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/finance/2526011.html

原来比较看重12/1/10的NASDAQ缺口2498-2535，觉得此跌要补全该缺口到249X。
但从NASDAQ周图看来，2535是4/10的高点，所以只跌到2535不补缺口也有可能。上周五的2790也可算2825-2755=70的有效回调，所以2790-2535=255（中位2662）也说得通。
NASDAQ的2535大约对应RUT的745，SPX的1219。

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2011-7-18 06:54

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2011-7-18 06:55

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2011-7-18 06:55

ychen222

http://stockcharts.com/def/servl ... D95481&cmd=show[s41134367]&disp=O

从交易量看，NASDAQ的2350-2600是稀薄区，对应SP500的1130-1250。
从这个角度看，熊熊当前的希望大。

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2011-7-19 06:42

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2011-7-19 06:42