I’m going to summarize the main arguments and then flesh them out.
•Real time observations: Are you able to monitor exactly when they enter and exit positions? And when they change their minds?
•Deliberate obfuscation: It’s a nasty zero sum game world out there, and some people deliberately want you to trade opposite to them. Think of Jim Cramer and his infamous ‘moron longs’ observations.
•Track record: Are these guys actually any good? What do you really know about their track record and do they consistently make money or is it just a year or two of good numbers when the market favors their strategy? Why is it so hard to find a track record for some of these guys?
•Timing: Are you in the position at the right time or is the guru the only one making money?
• ortfolio positioning: Do you understand how the position works within their overall portfolio or are you looking at it in isolation?
Listen to people who made money in the market, not a loser like Ackman who longed JCP,BBY this year. |
发表于 2012-12-31 12:44
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