[讨论] BT，怎么看周末希腊的大选？紧张S了 - 犀利扎哥能赢吗？

not4weak

我估计一定是那个老头赢，周一也许会有一个RELIEF RALLY？
然后就一泻千里吧

啊，海伦在哭泣。。。

Brainteaser

ECB 已经说了，西班牙必救，绝对不能让它倒，希腊自便，
然后希腊左派已近跳出来说他们就是胜利了，也会留在欧元区，接受fiscal austerity。
后面可能会在希腊搞几个基础建设的刺激计划作为奖励。

一切和我上次分析的结果一样。放心看球吧。

not4weak

回复 2# Brainteaser
谢谢BT！

周一大涨吗？

farshine

ECB 已经说了，西班牙必救，绝对不能让它倒，希腊自便，
然后希腊左派已近跳出来说他们就是胜利了，也会留 ...
Brainteaser 发表于 2012-6-15 20:56

四锅加空仓了，应该在水下！所以很紧张！

not4weak

BEST FOR THE MARKETS: A New Democracy win with enough Pasok support to gain 151 seats in parliament.

    Both of these parties generally support the bailout and austerity measures, want to remain in the euro zone and are most likely to play well with others (namely the Germans). It's 'generally support' because no one in Greece is terribly enthused about any of the harsh terms imposed by the so-called "troika" (European Commission, ECB, and IMF), but if these parties garner enough votes to form a ruling coalition it should greatly ease market uncertainty, at least for a while. Bank of America Merrill Lynch calls this a "very favorable outcome for U.S. corporate credit as the probability of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro is significantly reduced."

    SLIGHTLY BETTER / STAYS THE SAME: A win by New Democracy yet without the 151 votes combined with Pasok to form a ruling coalition.

    If New Democracy and Pasok can get close to the 151 seat total, they will work desperately with the other two more moderate parties, Democratic Left and Independent Greeks, to reach a deal that would effectively form a coalition. Though those two parties don't support all the same austerity and economic measures as New Democracy and Pasok, there's hope in the market that Greece's increasingly desperate financial situation will force them to reach a deal, however distasteful to some of their followers.

    BAD FOR MARKETS: A big win by Syriza

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch called this outcome a potential "roller coaster" for the markets.  Led by charismatic 37-year-old Alexis Tsipras, Syriza has literally come out of left-field as a new power player. Syriza is against austerity measures, and Tsipras has openly challenged European officials on them.  If Syriza gets most of the popular vote, it will also push to make deals with other parties, most likely the Communists and Democratic Left, to attempt to form a ruling coalition that would take a hard line stance. That government would essentially be playing the single greatest game of economic poker the world has ever seen, and Angela Merkel and Mario Draghi may not be in the mood to play games.

not4weak

Syriza - 犀利扎

Brainteaser

回复 3# not4weak


    我建了多仓。

Brainteaser

回复 4# farshine


    他DT不过夜吧，别说过周末了

farshine

回复  farshine


    他DT不过夜吧，别说过周末了
Brainteaser 发表于 2012-6-15 21:46

四锅说这次下周cover! 其实希腊大选已经是名牌了。

何鸿燊

回复 9# farshine

Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

Greece election might be like Facebook - much anticipated but in the end not a huge mkt influence, or already discounted.

https://twitter.com/#!/dougkass

st168

回复 9# farshine

除了准备入场的新资金外，俺满把中期多仓，看都不用看。
就算是希腊洪水滔天，MO, T  这样的股票，用得着担心吗？
春风得意马蹄疾，俺不轻松谁轻松呢！

何鸿燊

Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

@erwillia The Rip your face rally forecast was made on the morning of June 1 when S&P futures were down 27 - SPY gone from 127.5 to 134 YES
View conversation


15h Douglas Kass Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

As I mentioned previously and will publish on RealMoney Pro (Monday)"The Delicious Dozen" (12 Reasons the S&P can rise by 15%+ in last half.

15h Douglas Kass Douglas Kass ‏@DougKass

The mother of all short squeezes is now possible - it follows the "Rip Your Face Off Rally"

何鸿燊

美国经济数据持续比预期差。企业盈利似乎开始受到欧洲衰退和中国经济慢刹车的影响。 现在是大家都在赌马上要打鸡血。希望鸡血真的能够再由笨大叔奉献出来/

st168

回复 11# st168

起伏由天，好股吾自捂之。
享受人生，何畏老之将至。

not4weak

起伏由天
啊

看来不管谁赢，都得涨？