The other options (though unlikely I think) are (1) in 2014 SPX would go much higher than 1900.
(2) 1745 would be the multi-years top, 2014 SPX would test 168X then fail, the major bottom would be 1745/2=872 in 2015/2016.
Actually I would expect this large 3 push down to test the middle line or middle line boundary of final down wave(like 1900->950). I mentioned 1400-1420 many times. 1425 is the middle point of 1900-950.
If 1745->1000, the middle point would be 1372, middle line boundary is 1335/1419.
If 1745->872, the middle point is 1310, which is too lower to get there. This is the reason I think 1745->1000 would be likely, actually it might become 168X->1000 if using the second top.
Examining recent SPX, I see the boundary is 1680-1696. 1696-1688=8. 8*5=40. 1688+40=1728.
So it seems like that this up wave could not support SPX beyond 1730. However, if the top at 1730, the first push down would be 1730->1650, only 80 points, which is too short for my large scale plan. 120 points like 1745->1625 is much reasonable.
Therefore, I guess the near term route would be SPX up to 1730, stall there, then down to 1700, finally to 1745.
发表于 2013-8-2 07:03
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