[读书学习] 读后感系列贴 (六)

ychen222

（一）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D3
（二）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... page%3D1&page=1
（三）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/vie ... &extra=page%3D1
（四）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-144356-1-1.html
（五）http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-167748-1-1.html

ychen222

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gr ... deal-074432694.html

“Greece, creditors edge closer to deal”。

记得上周谈判破裂时候欧元涨美元跌股市涨，现在deal有希望了却欧元跌美元涨股市跌。
也许把PIIGS踢出欧元区才是市场想要的大利好，会使欧元猛涨，美元猛跌，股市大牛。

何鸿燊

回复 2# ychen222

耐人寻味的观察。

ychen222

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com

John Mauldin说：
“Europe has problems that are structural and can't be fixed with just another treaty or more ECB liquidity. With that in mind, here are my thoughts.

1. The European Union works, mostly much more than less. Keep the free trade zone. There are countries that work just fine that are not in the euro. We live in the world of computers. Currency exchange is a computer operation and relatively easy. And keep working on coordinating with the rest of the world. Take advantage of what you can do together. We are all better off with a united Europe. Until such time as there are stable labor and productivity markets across Europe, don't press for a single currency. Single currencies don't insure there will be no conflict. Really integrated free trade and open borders do.

2. Admit the euro just doesn't work for some countries, and let them leave the eurozone (but stay in the free trade zone, like Denmark and Sweden are now). Establish as orderly as possible a path for a country to revert to its old currency. Yes, there are going to be some very large losses. If you control it, they will be far less than if you don't. You can set up a two-tier system, just as you did when you created the euro. And pass some laws so everyone isn't spending the next two decades suing everyone else. Deal with it like adults who want to be friends after the divorce rather than enemies for life. If you have to make up some rules, then make them up. But do it quick. The longer you take, the more it will cost you (and the world).

3. Greece has to be told no. No more loans. No more threats. If they want to stay, then let the market deal with them. I doubt it will be kind, but they have to take responsibility for themselves. Nobody forced them to borrow too much. Cut your losses now. Use the money to salvage your own banks. When (not if) Greece decides to go, help them with some humanitarian aid (medicines and emergency supplies) but stop piling on debt they can't pay. Work out the terms so they can get on their feet and go on with their lives. Allow them to stay in the free trade zone. And learn your lessons. Be careful whom you lend money to!

4. Sadly, the same goes for Portugal, although with a reasonable and very healthy haircut they may be able to stay.

5. Ireland is not going to pay that bank debt. Get over it. Just let the ECB swallow it. Then Ireland will pay the rest of its government debt and can grow its way out of its problems. They have a positive trade balance. Besides, who doesn't love the Irish?

6. Italy and Spain are problems. If they stay they are going to need some major ECB help on rates while they get their deficits under control. Either do it or don't, but don't keep the world in limbo. Germany needs to make a decision and make it very publicly.

7. I don't know what to suggest to France. That is the toughest question. They are losing labor competitiveness with Germany and others, and already have taxes that cannot go much higher, large fiscal deficits, poor demographics, and huge future unfunded liabilities in the form of health-care and pension benefits. They have time to get things sorted out if they will use it (like the US). The world surely hopes they do. The concern about the problems of French banks was voiced everywhere in Hong Kong and Singapore. They are integral to world trade in ways that US banks (or others) can't come close to. They just have the experience and infrastructure in making those trade loans. You can't build that up in a short time. A problem with French banks would be a problem for world growth, which is already slowing down.”

希腊肯定离开欧元区，估计也拿不到大救助。葡萄牙也危险。
现在要小心的是一旦明确它们离开，欧元反而可能受益，其主权债损失市场可能已经消化，而意大利西班牙的问题没有那么快地爆发，造成股市反而涨。

ychen222

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock ... /203311256728.shtml

“席林估计欧洲这一次衰退的程度将完全可以和美国2007年至2009年那一次相提并论。这样的欧洲衰退自然也足够在今年上半年将美国原本相对较好的经济状况拉下水。
他还估计，伴随发达国家的消费者收紧荷包，中国经济也将遭遇硬着陆。”

当前肯定不能期待实体经济来支持股市，只有大规模的QE才能救股市/债市，副作用是通货膨胀。我猜想眼下肯定不是QE的时候。这次问题的焦点在欧元区，需要等希腊/葡萄牙DEFAULT退出欧元区，西班牙/意大利跟德国商量好财政联盟以后，ECB才会大规模QE，而且是FED/日本同时参与，共同迎来股市的春天（估计这发生在今天秋季）。

蓉儿

蓉儿  

Post subject: Re: 2012大势之纯净臆想.... 大家都说说    Posted: 1/1/12    22:41  

1: 中国房市崩盘，
2: 股市崩盘硬着陆，
3: 黄金暴跌，
4: 大宗暴跌，（尤其钢铁铜期货暴跌）
5: 欧元暴跌，
6: 美元保值，稳中有升，
以上排名不分先后，，，
7：，，，
8：，，，
9：，，，
10：然后，QE3 在凄风苦雨中出炉，美股大反弹迎接大选季度

ychen222

http://pretzelcharts.blogspot.com/

我支持蓉儿对2012大势的看法。
股市具体走法，不妨先参考2000-2002年的大熊市。当前的逼空很象2002年3月，也可能类似2001年5月。当年顶点之后2个多月虽然下跌，但不算急促，急跌发生在第4个月份。
所以对战略熊来说，现在似乎不必急于抢顶点，重点是抓住后期的急跌。
我猜测希腊最终会拿不到救助，3月29日大限要DEFAULT，脱离欧元区，然后4月的季报MM再添油加醋，让市场一片狼藉。所以这次急跌发生在今年3/4月份可能性大，而2月份只是热身。

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2012-1-25 08:17

ychen222

上贴的图显示的是2000-2002熊市的情况。
PretzelLogic同时也附了一张牛市的图，看样子回调总是要测试50天线的。
当前SPX的200天线和50天线在125X，就算今后大牛市，先回测一下125X也不算过份。

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2012-1-25 13:38

ychen222

http://www.yayabay.com/forum/thread-183033-2-1.html

雪骑的图很准，信息量很大。

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2012-1-26 07:33

ychen222

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blogspot.com/

“If the dollar has begun an intermediate degree decline then we should see it continue generally lower for the next 7 to 10 weeks. If this turns out to be the case then we are not going to see any meaningful declines in the stock market during this period.”

2011-12-23我说“看美元图似乎是Cup-with-handle突破再回测，颈线在79.5。”
现在美元似乎守不住79.5，那么股市的天平只好向牛牛倾倒啦。

ychen222

http://www.smartmoneytracker.blo ... -wave-bottomed.html

“Contrary to what most people believe, the initial break out of a volatility coil is usually a false move that is soon followed by a much more powerful and durable move in the opposite direction. ”

1月16号的coil pattern显然没有走成Gary猜测的样子。
现在SPX似乎又形成一个coil pattern，然后向上突破，这次如何呢？

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2012-1-27 14:10

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2012-1-27 14:10

ychen222

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/01/living-in-a-qe-world/

24日我还说“当前肯定不能期待实体经济来支持股市，只有大规模的QE才能救股市/债市，副作用是通货膨胀。我猜想眼下肯定不是QE的时候。这次问题的焦点在欧元区，需要等希腊/葡萄牙DEFAULT退出欧元区，西班牙/意大利跟德国商量好财政联盟以后，ECB才会大规模QE，而且是FED/日本同时参与，共同迎来股市的春天（估计这发生在今天秋季）。”

可是从此文数据看，各国央行从2011年8月就已经开始大规模QE了，“眼下肯定不是QE的时候”是战略性的错误判断。
如此一来，中长期股市将会是牛途漫漫，各国一同进入通货膨胀时代。

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2012-1-30 07:18

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2012-1-30 07:18

ychen222

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/vie ... ilit=&start=150

多吉提到“[原创] 大熊咆哮系列整理版 by watchman 发表于 2009-1-26 10:26
http://www.胡同9.net/forum.php?m ... p;extra=&page=1

最后，告诉大家判断牛市来临最精确的方法。

大盘走势不是用猜的，也不是用预测的，而是走出来的。
我们要做的就是根据各种信号去判断趋势的逆转和延续。
根据经验，最准确最有效的信号是60ma和200ma。

在牛市中，股价一般都在200ma和60ma之上。
牛市中，偶尔回调到60ma或200ma就是买入机会。
牛市中最大规模的回调，就是60ma下穿200ma，但是很快又重新有力上穿200ma。
因此，判断牛市终结的标志，是60ma下穿200ma，但之后无力再次上穿200ma。这个时候要坚决出仓。

在熊市中，趋势逆转以后，股价一般都在200ma和60ma之下。
熊市中，偶尔反弹到60ma或200ma就是卖出机会。
熊市中最大规模的反弹，就是60ma上穿200ma，但是很快又重新下穿200ma。
因此，判断熊市终结的标志，是60ma上穿200ma，但之后无力再次下穿200ma。这个时候要坚决买进。 ”


现在SPX的60天线马上就会超过200天线，熊熊近期若连个正常回调都搞不出来，趁早洗洗睡吧。

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2012-1-31 07:10

何鸿燊

MACD高位死叉，是个不利的信号。 难道现在是熊市反弹出货好时机？

蓉儿

31 号了，，，老陈，有木有更新的？